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EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

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Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#261

Post by scott_w »

ekianjo wrote: post #212
usrusr wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Setting up one of the n sites a company operates on EU turf would certainly be easier than avoiding ASML altogether. How would it force setting up a competitor? There's a huge difference between "can't use outside" and "can't use exclusively outside".

supply restrains create opportunities. you think China is waiting for the exports restrictions to ease up while doing nothing?

Is this restraining supply in any real sense? ASML will want to setup new factories, so saying "one of those needs to be in the EU" is more about directing the funding rather than forcing it to not happen.

In principle I'm not against ensuring some protection of access to strategic resources for countries. (Note I say "access" and not "exclusive access").

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#262

Post by BlueTemplar »

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #26
discordance wrote: post #4

So you don’t have to click through: “ The goal of the EU’s $43 billion Chips Act of achieving a 20% world market share for European producers by 2030”

One wonders how much of it is incompetence and how much just plain corruption. Anyone remember the glorious 5-year plan to build a European Google? I think they named it Quaero.

I think you mean Qwant ?

https://www.theregister.com/2021/10/07/alternative_search_pr...

We just aren't serious about this. If we were, Google and Microsoft would be banned in the EU. (Including other companies which are receiving a lot of money to prioritize Google or Microsoft software, like Mozilla and Apple.)

And it's not like there aren't other reasons to ban them : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Schrems#Schrems_II

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#263

Post by baq »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #245
andy_ppp wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, the issue with government picking the winners is there’s plenty of people who like money out there and sound very convincing. Even selecting the best people you still might not build what ASML have. I’m not even sure they can produce the mirrors needed for EUV let alone the laser light source and all the tens of thousands of other technologies that are in these machines. It’s extremely hard and China is in a…

> China is in a recession The Mainland Chinese economy grew more than 5% last year. It is no where near a recession.

yeah Chinese numbers are absolutely bollocks. there's some signal in how much they change. the absolute values are absolute... bullcrap.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#264

Post by baq »

apexalpha wrote: post #123
seper8 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There's only a handful of companies in the world producing chips at scale, so it wouldn't be too out of the question. Don't think you have any idea how complex it is to both set up the fabs and run them. Are you gonna fly half of Taiwan to run these fabs here? How long do you think this process is going to take?

>Don't think you have any idea how complex it is to both set up the fabs and run them. Are you gonna fly half of Taiwan to run these fabs here? How long do you think this process is going to take? I would think this would all happen the same way it would happen if we lured the companies here with €30 billion.

30B € is laughably small for bootstrapping a competitive process business. at least one zero missing. more likely two.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#265

Post by logifail »

epups wrote: post #257
logifail wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's too late to worry about protecting the jobs of locals What does one offer to locals to show them that they matter? Remember that all locals - even if they are poor or unemployed - have a vote. If one washes one's hands of an entire group one should not be surprised the next time an election comes round if the outcome is a form of protest.

The Netherlands already voted for a Eurosceptic, invoking similar rhetoric as you here - "replacement" of locals by foreigners, taking their jobs, etc. Interestingly, as is almost always the case in Europe, the places with fewer immigrants voted more harshly against them. The question we should ask is whether this is rational or not. I think not. If the Dutch want to vote themselves into a Brexit, then so be it - the…

> as is almost always the case [..] the places with fewer immigrants voted more harshly against them

Well, the very opposite of that happened in the UK regarding the Brexit referendum:

"More than 50 per cent of the population growth in Lincolnshire in the last decade has been caused by immigration. Across the county, population growth has been 57,999, with 30,568 due to immigration - a total of 52.7 per cent."

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/local-news/new-figur...

"More than three quarters of the people of Boston, in the county of Lincolnshire in the East Midlands of England, voted to leave the EU. According to the most recent U.K. census in 2011, Boston also has the highest proportion of eastern European immigrants of anywhere in the U.K., after an influx of EU workers to the area’s agricultural sector, earning it the label of Britain’s “most divided town.” Between 2004 and 2014, the town’s migrant population grew by 460%, and the proportion of residents of the Borough of Boston born in EU accession countries such as Lithuania, Poland and Latvia, stands at around 12%."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/28/in-boston-britains-most-pro-...

> The question we should ask is whether this is rational or not.

To vote a particular way in the hope of change? Why wouldn't that be rational?

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#266

Post by Moldoteck »

jacquesm wrote: post #174
Moldoteck wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I meant not just US comps but Spotify/Booking/etc... Was asking because was reading some comments in the past that the pay is not that competitive

Booking vs ASML? ASML any day. Even though Booking.com is nearby. I don't think what Booking.com does is remotely interesting whereas ASML is driving forward the whole of the semiconductor industry. That's a very easy choice. If it is just about pay then they are roughly comparable depending on your specialty, though Booking has less technical debt.

I understand the 'interestigness' but was asking particularly about the pay, because I've heard asml isn't exactly among the top payers, should research levels.fyi I guess to see for myself

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#267

Post by paulmd »

jdietrich wrote: post #89
onion2k wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously they cannot all be right. As a percentage of the market, that's true, but if the subsidies grow the whole market then every block's dollar value of market share can all go up. Every startup learns this lesson quite early on. It's a heck of a lot easier to grow a market by 5% than it is to take 5% of the market from a competitor, mostly because competitors do things to try to stop you.

Sure, but the semiconductor market is mature bordering on stagnant. There's a high-risk/high-reward competition for the leading edge that is currently dominated by TSMC, but there's just not much money to be made from the older nodes that the automotive, aviation and military segments care about. Building out capacity to secure your supply chains is potentially a very sensible strategic decision, but I'll eat my hat…

Do you mean the market is stagnant or the tech is stagnant, because those are different things imo.

If we have finally reached the final boss of silicon lithography, then the market will figure out whatever nodes make sense (best efficiency, best performance, best value) and presumably we will need ever increasing amounts of them… especially if future solutions just stack tons of dies together etc. it’s fundamentally a pivot from growing through the tech to growing through packaging and putting more silicon into a product… at higher power and cost. But as that market model matures you will very much continue to need more and more capacity to replace the growth that used to come from Moores law.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#268

Post by IshKebab »

jimnotgym wrote: post #50
IshKebab wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I've worked in a couple of startups in the UK now that I was surprised to discover got most of their funding from the EU. E.g. Ultrahaptics (which was an obviously flawed idea) got most money from Horizon 2020, not customers. Kind of weird that these wastes of money are never in the news, not even during Brexit.

Are they a waste of money? Did they stimulate the startup economy, upskill workers, etc? Were there no spin offs? Nobody learnt anything?

At least Ultrahaptics was. It may have stimulated the startup economy, but you can do that by funding startups that have realistic ideas.

And yes, often you can easily tell if an idea is a non-starter. It isn't the case that "you never know".

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#269

Post by jacquesm »

epups wrote: post #257
logifail wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's too late to worry about protecting the jobs of locals What does one offer to locals to show them that they matter? Remember that all locals - even if they are poor or unemployed - have a vote. If one washes one's hands of an entire group one should not be surprised the next time an election comes round if the outcome is a form of protest.

The Netherlands already voted for a Eurosceptic, invoking similar rhetoric as you here - "replacement" of locals by foreigners, taking their jobs, etc. Interestingly, as is almost always the case in Europe, the places with fewer immigrants voted more harshly against them. The question we should ask is whether this is rational or not. I think not. If the Dutch want to vote themselves into a Brexit, then so be it - the…

> If the Dutch want to vote themselves into a Brexit, then so be it - the foreigners will go elsewhere, trade barriers will be erected to "protect" the local economy, and time will tell who will be ahead economically and culturally.

And plenty of locals will go elsewhere too. I for one. The morons that effected Brexit should be enough of an example that any other EU country that wants to go the same route has been amply warned about what that will do your country. It's amazing that so many people are utterly blind but then again, live long enough and nothing really surprises you any more.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#270

Post by jacquesm »

logifail wrote: post #265
epups wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Netherlands already voted for a Eurosceptic, invoking similar rhetoric as you here - "replacement" of locals by foreigners, taking their jobs, etc. Interestingly, as is almost always the case in Europe, the places with fewer immigrants voted more harshly against them. The question we should ask is whether this is rational or not. I think not. If the Dutch want to vote themselves into a Brexit, then so be it - the…

> as is almost always the case [..] the places with fewer immigrants voted more harshly against them Well, the very opposite of that happened in the UK regarding the Brexit referendum: "More than 50 per cent of the population growth in Lincolnshire in the last decade has been caused by immigration. Across the county, population growth has been 57,999, with 30,568 due to immigration - a total of 52.7 per cent." https:…

Hope of change isn't rational because it more than likely will be change for the worse, not change for the better. The idea that a demagogue is going to come along and as a strong man solve all of your problems is infantile at best and irresponsible at worst. Those that vote in wannabe dictators will get exactly what they deserve.
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