Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobody owned a 747 a hundred years ago. Cheapest flight I've ever taken was 9.99 from Berlin to London — not sure if pounds or euros, but does it matter when either way it is less than I used to spend on a week of school lunches nearly 20 years earlier?
Exceptions like 10 EUR flights aren't sustainable. They're just auctioning off empty seats to cut costs. The comparison was conceptual thing to similar thing. Only the rich own and operate private planes, that hasn't changed. The fact that other, more sophisticated planes exist doesn't undermine the point. There are also diminishing returns. And past leaps in lifestyles aren't guaranteed to continue the same trends,…
Tidal energy is not renewable
261–270 of 350 posts
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
A global cooling system is easily conceivable. The ISS uses radiators to dissipate heat into outer space. We could do the same. We could concentrate heat with heat pumps and pump hot steam, molten salt, or plasma up a space elevator and radiate the heat away. Edit: The link points out that in 1,400 years we'd be using energy at the rate produced by the sun and in 2,500 years at the rate of the entire Milky Way. Even…
There’s no free lunch. The sun radiates heat like a blackbody sphere with the surface area of the sun and a surface temperature of 5600K or so. If the Earth were to have a fancy heat pump that radiated the same amount of heat into space, it would need the radiating area times the effective temperature to the fourth power equal to that of the sun. The real killer problem is that your heat pump is subject to the Carnot…
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#263But don't the tides naturally dissipate a lot of that energy anyway? E.g. whenever you go to the beach and see waves crash upon the shore, that's tidal energy being dissipated as heat. If you stick a turbine in the mix to extract useful work before it turns into heat, isn't it still turned into heat regardless?
Current tidal generators work either by inserting a turbine into the moving water; or by a dam that captures the high tide, then releases it through a turbine at low tide. Depending on the exact details, it could slow down the rate at which the current later flows over the seabed, which would reduce the energy dissipated from friction with the seabed. But, there's no guarantee that this would compensate for the energy taken by the tidal power generator.
You could imagine a different type of tidal power generator: covering the seabed with a giant treadmill. As water flows past, it drags the surface of the treadmill, generating power. My guess is this would dissipate less total energy than the natural friction of the seabed does. But, it doesn't sound very practical.
(Anyway, all of this is a moot point. As other commenters have noted, if human energy consumption actually were to grow 2% annually for 1000 years, we'd have way bigger problems than the moon becoming tidally locked.)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_acceleration#Angular_mom...
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
If we're still around in 500 years and producing that much energy, I don't expect we'd be limited to Earth anymore!
Collecting solar power in orbit is quite reasonable. But yeah I expect we’ll not make it 100 years let alone 500. Our ability to change our behavior to avoid obvious problems is poor bordering on suicidal.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
A global cooling system is easily conceivable. The ISS uses radiators to dissipate heat into outer space. We could do the same. We could concentrate heat with heat pumps and pump hot steam, molten salt, or plasma up a space elevator and radiate the heat away. Edit: The link points out that in 1,400 years we'd be using energy at the rate produced by the sun and in 2,500 years at the rate of the entire Milky Way. Even…
There’s no free lunch. The sun radiates heat like a blackbody sphere with the surface area of the sun and a surface temperature of 5600K or so. If the Earth were to have a fancy heat pump that radiated the same amount of heat into space, it would need the radiating area times the effective temperature to the fourth power equal to that of the sun. The real killer problem is that your heat pump is subject to the Carnot…
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can find data related to this phenomenon when searching for “imported emissions”. But then it's only going to be related to the CO2 emissions, not energy, and the measure appears to vary a lot depending on the methodology (from a quick search, France is estimated to import between 117 and 750Mt of CO2 a year, quite a large error margin…). > if wealthier nations were exporting energy demand via imports I would exp…
> France is estimated to import between 117 and 750Mt of CO2 a year, quite a large error margin… I don't know, if your basis for your opinion is that you googled it and you got some very wide ranging and contradictory results then that seems like a poor foundation to start with. > Why? These exports from China generates GDP in China so it just grow the energy consumption as well as the Chinese GDP, making the ratio f…
But nobody ever said that. Chinese exports don't have to be driven by the use of energy to actually consume the energy! Labor cost was the main factor (but not really anymore, and the most labor intensive industries like clothing have long transitioned to even lower-wage countries in South-East Asia), followed with the industrial expertise (with a enormous qualified workforce tailored for industrial production), but once the industrial production happens there, the energy is consumed there and not in the Western world.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s only hypothetical in that the future hasn’t arrived yet. Most predictions are hypothetical by that criteria. We know the economy is decoupled from physical limits because we have built it to be that way. If you go to my bank right now, they are not going to have a physical pile of valuable objects there which is my account balance. They have a computer that stores numbers, and obviously it needs energy to operat…
Qing Dynasty China had "decoupled" its currency from specie by way of the first paper-based currency I'm aware of. See: Richard von Glahn, Fountain of Fortune: Money and Monetary Policy in China 1000-1700 (1996). But that has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with decoupling the actual economy from its physical foundations. Long after Qing, China remained fundamentally dependent on rice and wheat harvests (and suff…
If you insist on measuring the economy solely in terms of "substances with intrinsic value," you will find the limit of economic growth at approximately the limit of those substances. However this is begging the question because it's not the only way (and not the currently accepted way) of measuring economies.
Anyway, it's not just the representation, wealth itself is increasingly nonphysical and hypothetical. For example not only is my $1,000 bank account just a database entry, my database entry is most likely offset by about $900 in loans to other people. So my saved cash is actually about 90% claims on future payments by other people. Or look at stocks; at a P/E of around 20 currently, 95% of the value of my SP500 index fund is hypothetical. And of course the whole point of a bond is future payments.
Market-winning behaviors are also becoming less physically correlated. Did Barbie take 5x as much energy as The Flash to make or present? Does a 3 bedroom row house in San Francisco use 5x as much energy as a similar house in Detroit? Does Apple use 3x as much energy as Amazon? Does it take twice as much energy to make a Mercedes C class as a Honda Accord? There are tons of examples like this. Rice and wheat harvests are a pretty small part of modern economies now.
Look, I agree that a certain level of energy usage is required to enable economic activity. If we were to cut our energy use too much, we would limit or perhaps crash the economy. People need food, clothes, shelter, plumbing, communications, etc. I'm just saying: that is not equivalent to proving that future economic growth is bounded by energy usage. One does not logically follow from the other.
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#268Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This boiling temperature conclusion makes the assumption that we continue using thermal power (steam engines, etc...), where waste heat is around 60%. No, it doesn't. The waste heat, at the very end of the day, is always rather close to 100%. I.e. we use all that electric energy we generate to power computer, fridges, and many other machines, all of which – sooner or later – convert that electric energy to heat. (A…
100% of the heat we get from the sun is currently lost as waste heat, by one means or another. So you're not boiling the oceans by any reasonable projection of energy usage increase of solar energy. (yes yes some of it is reflected back into space as non-IR light, but you can also lose IR-emissions back into space without heating the Earth as well).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law
Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#269Re: Tidal energy is not renewable
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
Qing Dynasty China had "decoupled" its currency from specie by way of the first paper-based currency I'm aware of. See: Richard von Glahn, Fountain of Fortune: Money and Monetary Policy in China 1000-1700 (1996). But that has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with decoupling the actual economy from its physical foundations. Long after Qing, China remained fundamentally dependent on rice and wheat harvests (and suff…
> The wealth-tracking representation has been decoupled from any substance with intrinsic value, but the economy has not. If you insist on measuring the economy solely in terms of "substances with intrinsic value," you will find the limit of economic growth at approximately the limit of those substances. However this is begging the question because it's not the only way (and not the currently accepted way) of measuri…
I don't, and specifically pointed out precisely an instance where money was not grounded in material goods. However that is a red herring as money is not wealth but is instead a measure of wealth. My own theory is that the reason many monetary systems have been based on specie or some similar intrinsically valuable material has to do not with coupling/decoupling of production to physical inputs, but to trust. That is, when you have a money-issuing authority imbued with high trust, the need for metal-backed currency disappears. "Seigniorage" is then a measure of trust in the money-issuing authority, and fiat currency (with effectively infinite seniorage) implies complete trust.
(The concern that such authorities occasionally abuse their trust, and/or run up against circumstances in which deflating the currency becomes a financial and economic necessity, is a separate issue. That problem isn't limited to fiat currencies, however, as the devaluation of specie-based currency such as the Roman denarius illustrates.)
The relationship between economic output and material inputs, specifically energy inputs, has been identified by several authors, in particular Steve Keen and Robert U. Ayres, "A Note on the Role of Energy in Production":
Energy plays no role in the standard Cobb-Douglas Production Function (CDPF), and a trivial role in a three-factor CDPF where it is treated as a third input, independent of labour and capital. Starting from an epistemological perspective, we treat energy as an input to both labour and capital, without which production is impossible. We then derive an energy-based CPDF (EBCDPF) in which energy plays a critical role. We argue for the redefinition and measurement of real GDP in terms of exergy. We conclude that the “Solow Residual” measures the contribution of exergy to growth, and that the exponents in the EBCDPF should be based on cross-country comparative data as suggested by Mankiw (1995) rather than the “cost-share theorem”.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09218...>
As Keen and Ayres note, including energy along with capital and labour in the Cobb-Douglas production function accounts for virtually all of the "Solow Residual", the amount of productivity not accounted for by capital or labour, and which was previously attributed to "total factor productivity". Keen & Ayres reduce that almost entirely to energy input.
Your sojourn into prices as opposed to wealth creation (in the real economic sense, rather than the somewhat more familiar, but irrelevent in this case, financial sense) is yet another red herring. Asset prices are not intrinsically grounded in production costs, particularly for price-inelastic goods such as real estate. Rather than being defined by costs of production, they're defined by surplus value, and following the theory of rents first expressed by David Ricardo, the seller will tend to accrue surplus consumer value of such assets. That is, real estate prices rise to match the income potential of that location.
Information-heavy good such as luxury brands (Apple, Mercedes), entertainment (cinema), are based on a combination of manipulating tastes (advertising and marketing, reputation), constraining supply (particularly in real estate), and in competition for a limited resources (cinema screenings vs. cinema audiences). Note that in the case of cinema, costs of production are independent of viewings, so the industry is very interested in both total budget and ticket sales. But individual ticket prices tend to be relatively uniform across titles, what varies instead are the number of butts in seats. (This varies somewhat: Imax theatres may claim higher prices, but again, this tends to be across all titles, and matinee or off-peak screenings may offer lower prices, but again, uniformly for titles.)
Rice and wheat, as well as oil, gas, and coal, are commodity goods, not assets in the sense of real estate and gold. They're subject to supply and demand, but prices are determined by the marginal or surplus producer, depending on market circumstances. Where demand is less than total production capacity, the surplus producer, that is, the producer who can choose to sell more or less product at will, determines price based on their own production quotas. From 1931--1972, this was the United States, managed through the US Department of Interior (via "certificates of clearance")[1] and the Texas Railroad Commission (through drilling and production quotas)[2]. Since 1973, control has effectively resided with Saudi Arabia, as the US passed domestic peak oil and no longer had surplus production capacity.
Where demand exceeds production capacity, it is the marginal producer of oil, that is, the one whose costs just allow operating profit at the present market price.[3] As market prices rise and fall, those marginal producers enter and leave the market, literally turning on or off well pumps, with the cost of running the pump often dominating their own production costs of their "stripper wells".[4]
Because fuels, and foods, literally power the rest of the economy, as prices for either rise, there is less profitable activity to be undertaken by utilising them. If we express national productivity in terms of $GDP/barrel-oil, there is a range of roughly $300--400 at the low end to ~$3000 at the high end, with the US coming in at about $1,200/bbl of GDP.[5] If oil costs $50/bbl, then that is $1,150 of net productivity per barrel. Should the price rise to $100, the productivity falls to $1,100. The US can afford this reasonably well. A country netting only $250 profit at $50/bbl however falls to $200, or a loss of 25% of economic productivity. (India and China were at about this mark.)
The low price of food and energy masks their true value to the economy, because it is precisely the differential in price and output which is what determines the scale of the rest of the economy. Take away fuels and foods, and you'll find that total productivity falls by far more than the previous total exchange value of those goods.
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Notes:
1. See Daniel Yergin, The Prize, (1992), particularly chapter 13.
2. Yes, the Texas Railroad Commission controlled global production of oil. Because Texas.
3. Or, in cases, not even profit but cover non-fixed costs, and thus encourage the producer to operate at a net loss.
4. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripper_well>
5. As of ~2015 when I last looked at this.