Earlier quoted context omitted.
The technology is roughly 10 years behind, but in the scenario that the replacement capability becomes important is something like Trump fumbles the great power competition and US and China have a nice nuclear moment. And frankly making do with Haswell era CPUs is lamentable but as far as nuclear exchanges go not that bad.
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For chips to be blocked going to Germany doesn't thus require a nuclear exchange. You rather should think of smth like military aggression from China towards Taiwan.