I’d be interested in hearing from anyone who takes the Chinese Room scenario seriously, or at least can see how it applies to any of this. I cannot see that it matters if a computer understands something. If it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, and your only need is for it to quack and walk like a duck, then it doesn’t matter if it’s actually a duck or not for all intents and purposes. It only matters if you…
What I find really entertaining is the "just predicting the next token" argument. If just predicting the next token can produce similar or better results than the almighty human intelligence on some tasks, then maybe there's a bit of hubris in how smart we think we actually are.
But it’s clear based on current implementations that once you work backwards from the knowledge that it’s “just predicting the next token” you can easily find situations in which the AI doesn’t demonstrate general intelligence. This is most obvious when it comes to math, but it’s also apparent in hallucinations and the model not being able to reason through/synthesize ideas very well, deviate from the script (instead of just answering a question with what it has already, in some cases it should not even try to answer and instead ask more clarifying questions). To be fair, there are plenty of humans with excellent writing or speaking skills that are bad at that kind of stuff too.