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Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

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Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#261

Post by nerdponx »

coliveira wrote: post #251
bionsystem wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are hedge funds beating markets over and over, some have been macro driven, some are equity driven, some are quant driven... Now of course it's a pareto law, only a handful out of 100 will get all the excess return and the others will stagnate or underperform indices (or even fail completely). But the same goes for building any company, most of them fail and we watch winners in awe.

Most hedge funds don't beat the market, and this is widely known. Moreover, from the few that beat the market, some are involved in insider trading and other deceptive practices. From the remaining ones, a good portion can be explained by sheer luck.

I do wonder about using this same analysis to look at various funds' real returns (hedge and otherwise), in addition to the major indices in the study. I'd be curious to look at variance, downside risk during downturns, etc.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#262

Post by sleton38234234 »

astrange wrote: post #227
sleton38234234 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> you can choose to go bankrupt or you can choose to pay it. There's another option. One that's far more politically favorable: You simply take out more and more debt, until finally the whole world sells US treasuries. at that point the fed prints unlimited amount of money to buy up all that debt. And when the US pays interest on that debt, it just pays it to the federal reserve which then sends it back to the US. T…

Does the market, who should know, agree with you? (Hint: US 10 year T-bond rate is 3.4%. That's not very high. Also, we have the world's largest military and can do whatever we want.) If you want an exciting doomer story to believe in, try deflation. It's worse than inflation, so you'll look more cynical.

I mean sure: the fundamentals all point to deflation: the aging population, the increasing debt and technology are all deflationary.

But, in this day and age where the fed has sooo much power, it doesn't matter. see below.

>> If you want an exciting doomer story to believe in, try deflation.

The Govt and the fed are both on the same page, in this regard: they will almost NEVER allow a deflationary spiral to happen. If you watch a lot of financial news from people who read the fed and intrepret what they're signalling, you'll find there is widespread agreement on this (especially as of the 2018 powell put).

In the history of countless countries and currencies from all over the world, all the outgoing empires and countries end up defaulting on their currencies in the end game. See Ray Dalio's latest book, he's got a great explanation on this.

You bring up an excellent point about the T-bond rate. If everyone already knows the endgame, then why hasn't the bond market priced it in yet? Shouldn't everyone be dumping T-bonds en mass? Are they slowly? these are the questions I'm trying to get answered. Part of it is because the fed was already buying up a bunch of t-bonds, hence a sort of partial yield curve control. other participants, must not be ready to give up on bonds yet, especially the institutional investors who are looking at more short term gains rather than long term. You can still make money on bonds in the short run betting on interest rate fluctuations.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#263

Post by autokad »

Invictus0 wrote: post #141
autokad wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because dividends are ultimately why people buy stocks in the first place? I would disagree, I feel like the mojority of stonk owners think dividends are passe companies, and a real company would reinvest its earnings or buy back stock. I disagree with these people. I think a company that has no intention of paying a dividend is merely an over produced digital collectible.

You disagree that buybacks are more tax efficient than dividends? > I think a company that has no intention of paying a dividend is merely an over produced digital collectible. So, Amazon is a NFT?

stock buybacks are more tax efficient than dividends, but I disagree they are remotely the same thing. There is plenty of empirical evidence that a stock buyback does little to the stock price in the long run, and I would much rather have the decision what to do with the money even though its less tax efficient.

An NFT is a good way to put it.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#264

Post by astrange »

Invictus0 wrote: post #260
astrange wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do not do that. Thinking about investments violates like four of the rules. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads®_investment_philo... The purpose of financial advisors is to stop people from thinking; if you just stop thinking on your own you'll never need one.

I could hardly imagine a dumber thing to say but you do you buddy.

Enjoy performing worse after fees than just buying VTSAX then.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#265

Post by Kranar »

nostrademons wrote: post #212
worik wrote: post #96

For modern computing/finance type of people (I was but now have reformed) the lack of financial data is a problem. Even if you can get access to every trade, which is hard, the amount of data is not what modern machine learning types require. Thr EMH is a hard mistress too. There is no amount of data that can help you solve unsolvable equations. So alot fall into this trap, synthetic data. Some of the best statistici…

Getting access to every trade is trivial if you're able to fork over $$$: https://www.nyse.com/market-data/historical/taq-trades

There are way more trades than those conducted on NYSE, or even the other lit markets. You have a multitude of dark pools that count for approximately 13% of all consolidated trading volume as well as internal matching that counts for 18% of all consolidated trading volume.

Dark pools do report their trades so it's possible to access it, but internal matching goes unreported, that data is kept by each respective broker.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#266

Post by nathanasmith »

compumike wrote: post #165
insonable wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yahoo uses the CRSP method (see: factor to adjust price) to back-adjust old prices when dividends and splits occur, so it's not as misleading as you're probably thinking. I'd be surprised if the others didn't do something like this too.

Yahoo does have this “Adjusted Close” column available in their historical data downloads, but they do not use it for charts. Their charts are price-only. Same with Google Finance and Apple Stocks.

I use TradingView for most of my charting and at the bottom right side there's a button labeled "adj". Clicking it will toggle whether the chart you're viewing is dividend adjusted or not. Very convenient for quick off the cuff comparisons of returns.

Using SPY I can easily see the non adjusted returns from the bottom of the GFC to the top in 2021/2022 were a little over 600% but then accounting for dividends see it's actually a bit over 800%.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#267

Post by compumike »

nathanasmith wrote: post #266
compumike wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yahoo does have this “Adjusted Close” column available in their historical data downloads, but they do not use it for charts. Their charts are price-only. Same with Google Finance and Apple Stocks.

I use TradingView for most of my charting and at the bottom right side there's a button labeled "adj". Clicking it will toggle whether the chart you're viewing is dividend adjusted or not. Very convenient for quick off the cuff comparisons of returns. Using SPY I can easily see the non adjusted returns from the bottom of the GFC to the top in 2021/2022 were a little over 600% but then accounting for dividends see it'…

For SPY, from 2009-03-09 to 2022-01-03, I get +588.5% total real return, +16.24%/year, after adjusting for dividends and inflation:

https://totalrealreturns.com/s/SPY?start=2009-03-09&end=2022...

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#268

Post by nerdponx »

nerdponx wrote: post #261
coliveira wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most hedge funds don't beat the market, and this is widely known. Moreover, from the few that beat the market, some are involved in insider trading and other deceptive practices. From the remaining ones, a good portion can be explained by sheer luck.

I do wonder about using this same analysis to look at various funds' real returns (hedge and otherwise), in addition to the major indices in the study. I'd be curious to look at variance, downside risk during downturns, etc.

I realized that this is what https://totalrealreturns.com/ does. It seems like at least a few mutual funds do beat the market over time, e.g. FPURX: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/USDOLLAR,VTSMX,FPURX,FBGRX

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#269

Post by Invictus0 »

autokad wrote: post #263
Invictus0 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You disagree that buybacks are more tax efficient than dividends? > I think a company that has no intention of paying a dividend is merely an over produced digital collectible. So, Amazon is a NFT?

stock buybacks are more tax efficient than dividends, but I disagree they are remotely the same thing. There is plenty of empirical evidence that a stock buyback does little to the stock price in the long run, and I would much rather have the decision what to do with the money even though its less tax efficient. An NFT is a good way to put it.

So if Amazon bought back so many shares so that there were just one left on the public market, you think that the last share would trade for $97?

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#270

Post by nathanasmith »

compumike wrote: post #267
nathanasmith wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I use TradingView for most of my charting and at the bottom right side there's a button labeled "adj". Clicking it will toggle whether the chart you're viewing is dividend adjusted or not. Very convenient for quick off the cuff comparisons of returns. Using SPY I can easily see the non adjusted returns from the bottom of the GFC to the top in 2021/2022 were a little over 600% but then accounting for dividends see it'…

For SPY, from 2009-03-09 to 2022-01-03, I get +588.5% total real return, +16.24%/year, after adjusting for dividends and inflation: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/SPY?start=2009-03-09&end=2022...

I'm pretty sure Tradingview doesn't take inflation into account.
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