Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

blog.interviewing.io

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

261–270 of 359 posts

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#261

Post by pishpash »

RC_ITR wrote: post #210
pishpash wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't matter the reason, net net less goods were produced. Imports couldn't stay at 4Q:21 levels forever, only the timing of the imports was shifted around.

>Doesn't matter the reason, net net less goods were produced. That's not how GDP works? It's not adding up all the things that were made , it's measuring the value an economy produced. A quirk of that is imports are value an economy consumes (usually offset by Foreign Direct Investment). If those ships decided to bail from LA and head to Japan, would the economy have 'produced less'?

Isn't your whole point that goods were already paid for in one quarter but were held up until the next quarter to clear? If consumption and import were in the same quarter then it doesn't affect GDP at all in an accounting sense. But in your example, you get a +GDP in the quarter that consumption happened, making it seem like domestic production went up, then against that baseline you get a -GDP "due to" imports the next quarter, so you must "lose" the domestic production as a correction.

If the ships bailed and stole your money or destroyed their goods I'm not sure if that still counts as imports or not.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#262

Post by RC_ITR »

NDizzle wrote: post #239
RC_ITR wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Irrelevant to the conversation and not adding anything meaningful other than revealing your biases.

And you don’t think you’re doing the same?!

I don't.

Please expand on what my bias is. I'm curious.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#263

Post by csomar »

adam_arthur wrote: post #89

This is likely to be the recession that halts the rapid inflation in tech wages. Rising risk free rate has hit growth companies the hardest, and there are likely to be a large swath of layoffs right as we have tons of people bootcamping and switching into the industry. Supply and demand of labor in tech will enter balance for the first time since ~2010. The FFR is looking to have a reasonable chance to go to 5% at th…

I actually see this as a good thing. The market got flooded with bootcamp dudes. I've nothing against people who are self-taught or changed careers (I am one). But many of the "developers" joining the market are really only interested in making a quick buck with as little effort as possible. (and adding a whole new range of buzzwords too).

The Tech industry is not going anywhere, though. We are still in a paradigm shift and companies are going to need software more than ever. Here are things that I'm now extensively using, that I was barely using 3 years ago: Food/Items delivery, eWallets, Apple Watch, Airbnb, Web3/Crypto, Discord, Streaming services, Dental, DNA Testing.

While many of these were used by people here for longer than 3 years, many people haven't shifted yet; and their shift is going to trigger the need for more software. There are still a lot of things that can definitively benefit from tech. One example I can think of is health care. Finding a doctor still require the old ways. You medical document is not necessarily transferred between countries or updated by your doctor. There are no apps to track the medecines your doctor gave you, etc...

Tech is still slowly making its way into our everyday life. The Web3/Crypto/Bubbles are really just distractions for this long-term trend.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#264

Post by bitexploder »

davewritescode wrote: post #133
adam_arthur wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, same as the value of a plumber, electrician or architect. Difference there is there isn't a supply/demand imbalance of labor in those jobs. And there soon won't be one in engineering either

That’s a very hard prediction to make. The most expensive part of software is maintenance and it’s not decreasing over time.

Considering many F500 have old crusty mainframes deep in the bowels of their core operations… who wants to deal with that stuff. The stories I could tell from doing security consulting engagements and peering into these abysses. HN is a bubble about this stuff and loses perspective some of the time. The cool and sexy engineering might end up funneling into a harder to reach place, but meat and potatoes software maintenance and engineering that keeps big business going is not going anywhere. The things and languages we are inventing now will take decades to penetrate and replace the things deep in big business right now. Never mind the horror that is operations software like SAP.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#265

Post by RC_ITR »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #237
RC_ITR wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok so now I get your convoluted point, but then great let's exclude net exports, the other categories like PCE etc. haven't declined? EDIT: I want to give you the benefit of the doubt here because I like where you're headed (ignoring the timing effect that would make GDP useless under your framework), I really do, but let me chew on this. Because it is interesting , though it does completely ignore FDI (which is how…

Sorry if it sounds convoluted, but just trying to convey the actual rationale for the GDP equation (which is ignored or forgotten in most media reports). You understand GDP (It's not adding up all the things that were made, it's measuring the value an economy produced.). Imports clearly don't count as value an economy produced, and should not be in GDP. But if I import something, that increases GDP (spending is posit…

Yeah ok so here you go.

Philosophically, GDP is an useful economic metric because it proxies economic activity and in your framework, economic activity is up, we are just paying for it via trade imbalance, which great, I love that foreigners will trade us goods/services for debt/assets. Hard to call that a recession (which again is why the 2 quarters thing is dumb).

So circling back around to "my original point was correct and you were overly pedantic and actually just criticizing GDP as a measure" since imports are why GDP is down relative to the amount of economic activity that is happening (which is what should define a recession).

Also the Dunning-Kruger quip was unnecessarily rude and uncalled for given the circumstance. I hope it made you feel good.

EDIT: You agree that, in aggregate, the amount of consumption/investment/government spend are up, right? GDP has only declined because we didn't make all of it, which, sure, maybe a long-term problem, but irrelevant to a recession.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#266

Post by throwawaylinux »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #237
RC_ITR wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok so now I get your convoluted point, but then great let's exclude net exports, the other categories like PCE etc. haven't declined? EDIT: I want to give you the benefit of the doubt here because I like where you're headed (ignoring the timing effect that would make GDP useless under your framework), I really do, but let me chew on this. Because it is interesting , though it does completely ignore FDI (which is how…

Sorry if it sounds convoluted, but just trying to convey the actual rationale for the GDP equation (which is ignored or forgotten in most media reports). You understand GDP (It's not adding up all the things that were made, it's measuring the value an economy produced.). Imports clearly don't count as value an economy produced, and should not be in GDP. But if I import something, that increases GDP (spending is posit…

It's not convoluted at all, it makes perfect sense and you explain it well.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#267

Post by RC_ITR »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #266
WillPostForFood wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry if it sounds convoluted, but just trying to convey the actual rationale for the GDP equation (which is ignored or forgotten in most media reports). You understand GDP (It's not adding up all the things that were made, it's measuring the value an economy produced.). Imports clearly don't count as value an economy produced, and should not be in GDP. But if I import something, that increases GDP (spending is posit…

It's not convoluted at all, it makes perfect sense and you explain it well.

Philosophically, GDP is an useful economic metric because it proxies economic activity and in theirframework, economic activity is up, we are just paying for it via trade imbalance, which great, I love that foreigners will trade us goods for debt/assets. Hard to call that a recession (which again is why the 2 quarters thing is dumb).

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#268

Post by remexre »

csomar wrote: post #263
adam_arthur wrote: post #89

This is likely to be the recession that halts the rapid inflation in tech wages. Rising risk free rate has hit growth companies the hardest, and there are likely to be a large swath of layoffs right as we have tons of people bootcamping and switching into the industry. Supply and demand of labor in tech will enter balance for the first time since ~2010. The FFR is looking to have a reasonable chance to go to 5% at th…

I actually see this as a good thing. The market got flooded with bootcamp dudes. I've nothing against people who are self-taught or changed careers (I am one). But many of the "developers" joining the market are really only interested in making a quick buck with as little effort as possible. (and adding a whole new range of buzzwords too). The Tech industry is not going anywhere, though. We are still in a paradigm sh…

Dental?

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#269

Post by RC_ITR »

pishpash wrote: post #255
RC_ITR wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real GDP We've only recently seen nominal GDP declines in 2008 and 2020.

I know it's real GDP. I'm saying this number is noisier when inflation is high because you only ever measure nominal GDP and then deflate.

Well what don't you believe because you're using 6.6% inflation as your reason for skepticism, but that's what GDP is deflated by?

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#270

Post by nvader »

theteapot wrote: post #19
outworlder wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I recall seeing talks on "Staff Engineer" and thinking that this was going to be the next version of "Architect". Engineers who's primary job is to write code often dislike working with people in such roles. That depends. If they are actively involved and the architectural decisions are sound, it's fine. If they are "drive-by architects", showing up, dropping a bunch of useless boxes they read on some book, and the…

Drive by architects don't read books. They read AWS's latest product brochure and think "yes".

My personal experience screams, ouch!
Post reply on HN