EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted • Hacker News Board

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#261

Post by 01100011 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:15 AM UTC

therealrootuser wrote: post #187

As someone that is currently in the market for a new car, I would love to get an EV, but I also don't have a good way to charge. Seems like most EV owners just charge at their house, but what about people that don't have access to a good power tap? (apartment dwellers, renters, etc.) Sometimes it feels like there is a group of EV elites out there that are predicting the complete demise of ICEs while conveniently down…

In my experience, charging networks are growing rapidly. Unfortunately so is EV ownership and it's outpacing the charging network(in the Bay Area anyway).

I think EVs mostly make sense for certain types of commuters or those with private garages/home chargers. You can certainly get by with a charger at work(i did) or use public chargers but it will depend on your area and your tolerance level. Public chargers can often cause headaches. Broken or busy chargers... Requirements to move your vehicle quickly after charging.. Commuting to a local charger.. the system needs work.

I'm about to give up my EV. I think I owned it during a sweet spot(lots of chargers, less competing EVs, and high gas prices). I'm happy going back to gas for a while. I don't see an advantage to buying an EV right now for me. EVs will still be there in a few years and I can always switch back.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#262

Post by wenc » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:16 AM UTC

eyelidlessness wrote: post #142

aeharding wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rain isn't really a problem with the appropriate clothing. (Speaking as someone that rides year round for transportation in Wisconsin.) The only problem I've had is downpours can soak your shoes but I just have an extra pair of shoes at work and at home.

Rain is definitely a problem for a vehicle which depends on lateral tilt to turn and which depends on inertia to stay upright. Speaking as someone who has ridden many years round in Seattle, where the roads lean along with the hills even where the hills aren’t that steep. Those turns are a mistake or an unexpected cross vehicle away from a crash on our driest days, but the rain really amplifies that danger.

I've driven in Seattle in the rain, and some streets (especially near Pike Place Market) are so steep that once my wheels lost their grip and slipped and rolled downhill a little at an intersection. I'm not sure why it's even safe to design an intersection on a very steep road that's difficult to stop at.

Water and slopes are not a good combination for road safety even for four-wheelers.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#263

Post by 01100011 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:24 AM UTC

JKCalhoun wrote: post #61

guidedlight wrote: post #8

Given EV’s should have price parity with ICE by 2025-2027, I think its obvious that EV adoption should accelerate. Unless you are purchasing a very cheap sub-$20k car, EV’s should become the only choice by 2030. https://insideevs.com/news/506465/evs-price-parity-europe-20...

Strikes me as odd that electrics are not cheaper than internal combustion. I guess it's the batteries, huh?

Batteries and lots of copper and aluminum. Steel is cheap. You also have better economy of scale in IC vehicles for now.

I feel like we're dismissing other hydrocarbons too early. When I was a kid, people had propane or methane cars which were basically converted gasoline cars. Sure, not anywhere near as efficient but combined with hybrid tech for regenerative braking you likely have a more efficient car overall(nat gas is less refining energy than gasoline IIRC and we have a lot of it). You can also build them a lot cheaper since they use smaller electric motors, less coppper, less aluminum, and less lithium.

Yes I know BEV zealots hate hybrids but until we have better Li supply chains we need to conserve it and get more vehicles off of pure IC drivetrains.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#264

Post by jakzurr » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:25 AM UTC

JKCalhoun wrote: post #67

brnt wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't your garage handle that for you at the yearly checkup?

Do people have "garages" and yearly checkups? Maybe it's a European thing? In the U.S. we have Jiffy Lube and the "checkup" is just another way for them to squeeze the customer for cash. We are so distrustful of auto mechanics in general that, no, I don't think most of us go looking for a yearly fleecing, ha ha (not funny, really).

30 years ago, quit using Jiffy Lube after the tech (1) took out a plug to check manual trans fluid, (2) discovered it was not the right one, and (3) jammed it back in the best he could.

At least I got a free transmission rebuild out of it, but walking (or bus :\ ) to work for 2 weeks was not exciting.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#265

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:25 AM UTC

crooked-v wrote: post #153

rootusrootus wrote: post #27

I have owned a Tesla, and I leased my wife a Bolt a while back. She's convinced, I'm convinced, but with the lease coming to an end next year we probably will not replace the Bolt with another EV. Why? Prices. I was ready to buy a Mach E, but then Ford raised the price something like 6 grand while simultaneously losing the $7500 tax credit. That effectively bumps the price of the car into a territory I don't think ma…

I suspect you might have been misinformed, as the Mach-E is actually one of the few current vehicles[1] that will be able to keep the $7500 tax credit for the rest of the year, before the new rules around sourcing requirements and income limits kick in on Jan 1st. [1]: https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/federal-ev-tax-credits-en...

[deleted]

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#266

Post by krisoft » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:26 AM UTC

eyelidlessness wrote: post #137

snuxoll wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bike infrastructure can be used for walking. Please, no more of this. Bicycles should be on their own dedicated right of way, mixing them with cars is dangerous for cyclists, but mixing bikes with pedestrians is dangerous for pedestrians. Multi-use paths are fine for recreation, but they are not transit infrastructure and should not be treated as such.

As both a cyclist and pedestrian, I definitely prefer bikes off the sidewalk. Even conscientious cyclists who call “on your left” or whatever routinely underestimate the necessary reaction time and overestimate how far their voice will carry. Even if they get both of those right, they’ve frequently terrified my pup by just being faster and louder and larger than anything on foot she’s ever met. I’ve had to return hom…

> Even conscientious cyclists who call “on your left” or whatever routinely underestimate the necessary reaction time and overestimate how far their voice will carry.

You are absolutely right. As a cyclist there isn’t really any good way to reliably avoid startling a pedestrian in a mixed environment. Even if you do the even more conscientious thing and you slow all the way down to match speed with them, and then “walk” with their speed for seconds and softly anounce your presence with an “excuse me” there are still some who get startled. I have had people act after all of that as if I tried to murder them. And I totally understand them! From their perspective they were all alone and “all of a sudden” a cyclist poped into existence behind them. And in their subjective reality they have just avoided a collision by jumping out of the way of some “crazy speeding biker”, but that biker only exists in their imagination. An outside observer would see a bike slowly catching up and matching speed with them, with zero chance of collision no matter what they might do, but that is not what they seem to experience.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#267

Post by aqme28 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:29 AM UTC

snuxoll wrote: post #132

endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

> Bike infrastructure can be used for walking. Please, no more of this. Bicycles should be on their own dedicated right of way, mixing them with cars is dangerous for cyclists, but mixing bikes with pedestrians is dangerous for pedestrians. Multi-use paths are fine for recreation, but they are not transit infrastructure and should not be treated as such.

This is true, but to OP’s point, biking infrastructure is way more pedestrian friendly than car infrastructure.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#268

Post by Schroedingersat » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:31 AM UTC

Scarblac wrote: post #208

snuxoll wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bike infrastructure can be used for walking. Please, no more of this. Bicycles should be on their own dedicated right of way, mixing them with cars is dangerous for cyclists, but mixing bikes with pedestrians is dangerous for pedestrians. Multi-use paths are fine for recreation, but they are not transit infrastructure and should not be treated as such.

And this is especially true for 30mph ebikes. Those really don't mix with pedestrians.

Those are electric motorcycles and should be treated as such, the pedals are largely irrelevant. They have no place on dedicated bike infrastructure either.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#269

Post by jakzurr » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:32 AM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #259

alisonatwork wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, I'd wager that the vast majority of Americans live, work and travel within 100km of a gas station at all times. That number could be pushed even higher if you include distance from any ordinary electrical power outlet that could theoretically be used to charge an EV. It's true that parts of the Canada and the US are very sparsely populated, but EV adoption could happen (and is happening) across much of th…

Friend of mine lives in a small town. There is a gas station. The guy that runs it is an asshole and it's expensive either way. The cheap gas station is 75 miles away in town with the grocery and big box stores. When you consider the whole cycle of gas up in town. Drive home, hope you have enough gas next week to get back to town. An EV would be less hassle and stress.

Good point. EV can be more convenient, and plug-in hybrid gives you a choice you might not have had, otherwise.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#270

Post by ReptileMan » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 6:33 AM UTC

shusson wrote: post #239

sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just completed a ~1600km drive back from visiting family. Half way through the outbound trip, in the middle of the mountains, I had to make a 300km detour due to a massive accident (two semi trucks head-on closed a mountain highway for more than a day). The detour was through a valley with no cellphone coverage for 150+km. At a rest stop I met a tesla driver in a panic. Without internet he was unable to figure out…

> There are some parts of this planet where it it very hard to envision mass EV adoption. A lot of EV's are already at 500km range. Within this decade we should see 1000km range. Add some charging infrastructure and we are gold. Just look at the chargers Tesla has built in California (and there is still a lot of potential to improve).

No EV has 500 km range when you drive it in real world conditions. If you drive it with normal highway speed - 140-160 km/h you can barely get 250.