U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

Haircut today. Haircut in two decades. Which is more valuable to you now?

You will never get really rich (100M+) without stock picking but you’re going to be better off in the average case by sticking to the index.

Similar to working for a startup vs working for a large corporation - working at a startup is like stock picking:)

If you want my crank opinion though, at this stage in the economic cycle you should be in commodities. Sure, you're late to the party and they're going to make you ill with their volatility, but generally that's where you want to be now.

Other options are recession plays like consumer staples. Think about the things people will still have to buy or will downgrade to in a recession. I bought $BUD and $TAP because I think people will drink cheap beer. Cigarette companies are good if you have no conscience and can catch them on a downswing(they're already up). My $KHC bet I made 6 months ago is probably the best thing in my portfolio right now. You have to be prepared for days like last Friday when nearly every stock was down. People are fleeing to dollars, so actually having cash right now isn't a bad thing. Your cash already lost value. We may see a dollar squeeze as people flee to safety and the fed drains liquidity from the financial system before the dollar continues its downward slide(late this year?).

Everything depends on the threat of war right now. Not enough people are talking about the supply disruptions happening. 20% of the world's container ships are currently in traffic jams thanks to Chinese COVID paranoia. Russia, a major commodity supplier, is cut out of the Western financial system. Fertilizer and energy are spiking. Recession may have peaked but it will settle into a steady 5+% rate unless the fed grinds the economy to a halt.

War may already be happening behind the scenes. The FBI is now warning(https://www.ic3.gov/Media/News/2022/220420-2.pdf) of attacks on our food infrastructure, possibly connected to the rash of fires occurring at food processing plants(stuxnet being fed back to us?).

Indonesia just suspended palm oil exports. They make something like 60% of the global supply. Countries are becoming protectionist. We are reverting in some ways to a pre-globalist world.

Sweden and Finland are likely joining NATO. The tensions with Russia aren't going away anytime soon. Even though Putin looks to be in poor health, the Russian aggression is not purely a product of Putin but baked into the national identity of Russia's elites. Maybe a good play, despite already taking off, is defense industry stocks(Lockheed, Raytheon, etc). The world is entering a very unstable period.

One thing you should consider doing as well: buy things you'll need over the next year. They're only going to get harder to buy and they're going up in price. Like a certain brand of shampoo? Why not buy a year's worth. Stockpiling is horrible on a national level, but as an individual it will help you cope with some of the price increases while your dollars would otherwise be stagnating or decaying.

Lets hope the bond market is currently wrong, because they seem to be pricing in many more hikes than the fed thinks will need to happen. There is a risk that inflation becomes unhinged and spirals for a while. The West isn't prepared for that sort of financial doom scenario.