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The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

warontherocks.com

261–270 of 282 posts

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#261
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I've been reading. Kamil Galeev (@kamikazani) has done an excellent job of describing how the Army has been intentionally castrated.

Hmm. Intentionally? That would be beautifully ironic if Putin nerfed the army (judging a competent army as being a threat to his rule), and then he didn't have a working army when he wanted to invade Ukraine.

Yeah, a competent military would be a threat to the state. So keep it neutered, have an alternate state service that can blunt the threat of a coup, etc etc. Oh and use the military as a source of graft so you and your friends can benefit financially.

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#262
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I've been reading. Kamil Galeev (@kamikazani) has done an excellent job of describing how the Army has been intentionally castrated.

Hmm. Intentionally? That would be beautifully ironic if Putin nerfed the army (judging a competent army as being a threat to his rule), and then he didn't have a working army when he wanted to invade Ukraine.

Of course. Most authoritarian regimes intentionally castrate their armies, kill promising generals and remove authority from officers, because otherwise they get military coups.

That's the secret power of a functional democracy: it can empower the military.

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#263
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it knows what/where exactly to engage... The point is that a soldier with a Javelin is a much less visible target than a big vehicle. Even if he runs just 40 meters away between the firing of the missile and its impact, any return fire aimed at the original site will likely miss him. And there can be a hundred of such Javelin-equipped soldiers in range.

Do you know what you call 100 Javelin equipped soldiers in a group? A target rich environment. The paper/rock/scissors idea would have mortars ranging down on that group in a flash. Try running away while humping 45lbs of gear while under mortar fire.

I said "in range", not "in a group". Given the range, that can mean several square kilometers if the terrain is right.

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#264
Modern war is no longer military show, resemble more criminal-based guerrilla. Traditional military technique can work or not much depending on combatant motivation more than mere material superiority.

Given that modern war should be centered toward war crimes, witch means using civilian stuff to disguise forces, mass kill people with poisoned water without damaging significantly the infra, use and abuse modern IT crap vulnerabilities do disable infra (like electric grid, connected vehicles etc) without physical damage, spread disinformation with the best possible ability etc.

That's why, for instance, in Ukraine Russia can't really arrive to a quick victory. Such immoral and criminal pattern is nothing new: WWI was a combat between armies, civilians are evacuated before combats, non-combatant on the front line was a bit respected etc, WWII change the game hitting civilians without any morale, hitting ambulances, putting military in hospitals etc. Now we do not even use State's official army preferring mercenaries with formally no flag and no code of conduct, engaging rule: "do what you want but win".

In such scenario try to be civil is not doable, the sole option is show equal behaviors, not encouraging criminals and violence per se, but mastering it to crush enemy forces and push civilians of all sides against the combatant because being unable to distinguish between them any unknown human being can be an enemy so a legit target for all sides.

Reaching such level of brutality means creating just bloodbaths where public opinion will rise at a certain point against the war itself. At that point no gear will work, the force of the crowd could not be stopped.

That's the modern strategy no one admit of course, but many practice shamefully.

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#265
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people vastly underestimate the importance of infantry support. A single soldier with an ATGM can take out a tank, but a single soldier with a gun can take out that single soldier and their ATGM. It's easy to forget that reality isn't a third-person shooter. When you're sitting in a steel box with an engine in the back and a cannon on the top, situational awareness will inevitably suffer to some degree, and n…

I guess my dumb question is: with a Ukraine-style conflict where there’s a ton of ATGMs floating around, do even properly-supported tanks actually provide net value or do they just soak up friendly infantry resources that could be devoted to other things? The range on modern ATGMs is huge, measured in KMs - seems like you’d need a ton of infantry support to keep from getting picked off. If your enemy doesn’t have ATG…

It's hard to say what net value means in a Ukraine-style conflict.

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#266
post #246
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

s/drones/air support/ imho the failures observed caused by manpad in the ukrane theatre were directly attributable to an almost comically poor systems integration on the part of the aggressor and an unwillingness to commit longer range artillery and missile strikes to soften what were hardened infantry targets equipped with sixth generation anti-air and anti-tank weaponry.

Explain how the Bayraktar has been very effective targeting SAM systems? SAMs designed to destroy aircraft in this size range, and operating altitude? Systems like TOR/Tunguska/Buk should be easily capable of detecting the Bayraktar and destroying it. It's not like Russia didn't see how it worked in the Armenian/Azerbaijan conflict. They knew Ukraine had Bayraktar, but seemed completely unprepared to deal with it.

Frankly they seemed unprepared to deal with anything. I think it’s another case where half of them thought they were going on a training exercise, and the rest thought it would be over in 72 hours.

The Ukrainians have all the same SAM systems the Russians do, so are super familiar with their limitations. They’re also many times more motivated.

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#267
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Army has been the most despised and low-status part of Russian society for the last 30 years, and mandatory service has been something that anybody with any means tried to avoid like he'll for even longer. The only people who go into an army career are those who don't have any means or talents for anything else.

That's what I've been reading. Kamil Galeev (@kamikazani) has done an excellent job of describing how the Army has been intentionally castrated.

For anyone wondering, there's a missing 'l' in the handle. Correct one seems to be `@kamilkazani`

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#268
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a counter example, the US has continued to use the BVR AIM-120 even after accidentally shooting down one of their own helicopters in an IFF failure. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-120_AMRAAM#United_States_o...

In the particular case the missile was used after visual identification [1]. > The two F-15s now initiated a visual identification (VID) pass of the contact. > Wickson's VID pass was conducted at a speed of about 450 knots (520 mph; 830 km/h), 500 feet (150 m) above and 1,000 feet (300 m) to the left of the helicopters. Now I am not saying there is no room for BVR, ofcourse there is. The 2 tracks in formation coming…

You are right that regardless of the reasons for phasing out AIM-7, there are reasons to take a look at your target before firing at it. I suppose I was only thinking about "hot war" scenarios, not police actions in civilian airspace.

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#269
post #35
post #2

On that topic: why Russian tanks are so vulnerable to these missiles and explode spectacularly [1]. Basically the canon auto-loads shells, and the shell storage is not in a different compartment than the turret. [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/01/why-do...

None of these articles seem to mention WHY the tanks are designed this way (although I admit I just searched for keywords). As far as I know, it is because the current gen of Russian tanks were designed for how they envisioned WW3 40 years ago [1]. Basically the tanks would follow nuclear strikes, and making humans load the ammunition would make them die a lot quicker from radiation, so they made an autoloader. [1] h…

The suggestion from this source[1] is that an autoloader makes the tank much smaller (harder to hit). He also claims being smaller makes them cheaper to produce. The intended use case was going to be somewhere in Europe, only 2-3 days from factory to front line. They were designed in an era before smart weapons. No amount of refactoring/refreshing on the current chassis is going to allow you to refactor out such a fundamental design choice.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/86aeL6xY0PQ

Re: The tank is dead: Long live the javelin, the switchblade, the ... ?

#270
> The 1967 Arab-Israeli War was the first conflict since World War II that saw the large-scale employment of tank formations on a mobile battlefield

Anyone with a mild knowledge of history knows about the huge tank battle that took place between India and Pakistan in 1965. Hard to take the article without any reference to that conflict.

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