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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#261
I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not?

Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way...

It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local resistance.

I speculate that Russian airforce weaponry is not generally high-precision, and the order to avoid targeting civilians implies restraint on use of indiscriminate bombing. Again, we've seen counterexamples which could be explained by all of the above reasons, plus the possibility of friendly fire from failed Ukrainian air defences.

I can only imagine that the "pro-civilian" policy is part of a plan to eventually install a pro-Russia government that has some semblance of consent from the people.

But I cannot fathom how they expect that suzerainty to operate in the face of mass popular resistance.

Did they really launch this invasion on the assumption that the people of Ukraine would just roll over and accept foreign rule?

Their options seem to be (a) beat a hasty retreat; (b) impose a bloody total subjugation of the population; (c) face a decades-long insurgency that will bleed them dry.

We need to find a variant of (a) that allows Putin to save face, because his default will be (b).

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#262
post #168

This cites but doesn't link "The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force", which is a much more thorough treatment: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar... They list three possible explanations: * Too few precision-guided munitions (PGMs) * Risk of friendly fire from surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) due to poor coordination * Lack of experienced Russian pilots

"Lack of experienced Russian pilot" This one is so hard for me to imagine, given Russia's long history of aerospace pride and massive military budget. The article attributes it to limited flying time compared to US/UK pilots and unfamiliarity with their latest and most advanced jets. Truly hard to comprehend how a military like Russia's could be suffering from lack of training despite a multi-year lead-up to a massiv…

Its easy - imagine massive, gargantuan corruption. On all levels, including the very top and going all the way to the lowest soldier. Heck, they were selling gas to Belarus civilians from their own machines while waiting just across the border during February. And then they ran out of it in Ukraine.

Can you imagine US or western Europe soldiers doing something similar en masse?

And its not just that - heavy drinking, fuck-it attitude, and suddenly called to invade the nation who was supposed to be their closest brothers?

They are sort of potemkin village kind of army. Few exceptional units (Spetsnaz), few cool technologies ie anti aircraft missiles, literally maybe 10 new Armata tanks (they found out they can't manufacture them en masse). So you see 40-50 years old tanks which Javelin can fry easily, and even clueless civilian can fire them after 30 minutes of training. You see soldiers abandoning vehicles since they have higher survability on foot. You see tank crew coming to Ukrainian police station to ask where is gas station (I call it clever way to surrender).

I think its actually very dangerous for Russia as a state right now. Showing this much weakness might motivate some neighbors. Especially China, they could run through the country all the way to Barents sea without breaking a sweat.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#263
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely i…

> It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": It would be exactly the same as calling all Americans Nazi's during the reign of Trump. There is no foundation in fact all American's are but there are small groups he as the President supported who were Nazi's. This is a plain lie to serve their propaganda.

No, the azov battalion is much more integrated into the ukrainian army than anything comparable during trump's presidency. This is from the official Ukrainian national guard twitter, where they seem proud of the azov batallion dipping munition in pork lard before fighting Muslim chechens:

https://twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497924614865002497

That does not justify any invasion, but there's also no need to go on the other extreme and turn into azov apologia.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "stumped" is not actually in the article. FTA: the issue is that Russia made a huge show of force at the start of the invasion but has apparently held back from actually using much of it (by air or ground). This war could have been over the day it started if Russia had used maximal force, and the conservative approach their actually using maximizes risks and casualties. And that's what has the experts confused: t…

I don't understand why people just don't believe Russia is being literal with their intentions. They said multiple times they don't want Ukraine, they just don't want NATO to be able to invade them by land. I'd you assume this is true, what they are doing make complete sense.

[deleted]

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#265
post #31
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war is already in the indiscriminate killing phase and moving towards just destroy city phase. Should be there in few days. Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars.

Yes, after Grozny and Aleppo, anyone saying Russians are trying to limit destruction is deluded or a shill. Russian military strategy has been to force surrender through causing as much civilian death as possible for a while now. Based on his speeches, both before invasion and the leaked one that was supposed to go out after a win, Putins objective is genocide. "The Ukrainian question", dude is literally quoting Hitl…

If the US was taking over Canada, I think we might approach it in a gentler way then Iraq or Afghanistan.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#266
post #70

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

If that is the case, why would officials and experts be "stumped"? This seems like the obvious explanation.

The explanation which I have not seen discussed here is that this is a secret war, in Russia.

Putin called it a "special operation." Use of the term "war" in reference to this action has been banned in Russia. This secret war aspect may have had practical effects on command and control. It is possible that by not declaring this more than a limited special action, Putin's deployment options are actually limited.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#267

Could Putin's end game be that he expects Ukraine to strike back inside of Russia, perhaps a missle on the Kremlin? Then that would give him justification to just carpet bomb Kyiv?

Ukraine already struck back inside Russian with a missile attack on an airfield[1]. But I don't think Ukraine has the manpower or the equipment to get munitions anywhere near Moscow.

[1] https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-forces-target-russian-airfi...

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#268
post #131

I think this misses the point entirely. It's their entire strategy, or lack of strategy that is in question. Small numbers of light vehicles entering towns they have not overcome...are then promptly destroyed by irregular Ukrainian forces often with improvised weapons. Seemingly trying to take large cities without first gaining and controlling ground and surrounding areas. Lack of attempts to destroy strategic infras…

Destroying bridges, rail, etc would be a huge mistake (beside maybe those leading west to NATO), as the current logistic challenges underscore. The initial blitz did target radars and airports (strategic infrastructure) to try to get air superiority, after which many more options become available. But that didn't play out. We're seeing now a transition to siege tactics; surround and generally make life miserable.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#270
post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

This is a war of hatred towards Ukrainians from Putin. Therefore he's both 1) not expecting resistance because enemies are dehumanized and weak according to his worldview, 2) probably ready to start genocide if enemies resist too much, after all, Holodomor happened less than a century ago.
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