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$130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

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Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#261

Post by tiku »

asimpletune wrote: post #181
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about Bitcoin specifically, though, is that there are only really 2 possible outcomes: 1. The world decides it's "tulips" at some point, and the value goes to 0. 2. The world decides it will be a major part of the financial system, and it goes to 500k or 1 million. Basically, anything in between is just a probability calculation of whether it will end up at one end or the other. The problem with this, thoug…

I could be wrong about this, but I don't know if the energy requirements have anything to do with the price (I.e. demand) for the coin, does it? I was under the impression that the problems that you have to solve get predictably more difficult, and they're more of a function of time than price. But yes, with your point overall I agree, like in 10 years or something it doesn't seem workable without major changes. Wasn…

Why would a bitcoin miner sell his mined BTC for less than the power costs?

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#262

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

LeanderK wrote: post #125

In the past, I've thought of bitcoin as worthless hype but the persistence is impressive. I mean bitcoin just doesn't represent anything and can't be used much, it can just go out in flames and nobody would step up to help those poor crypto-holders. But thinking about other things like gold. Nobody uses gold to pay and while it's used as a resources, people who invest in gold just trust gold to be valuable. Maybe cry…

It's not just people thinking it's valuable, it is people wanting it to be valuable.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#263

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

andrewfromx wrote: post #32

I can’t stop thinking about the points Daniel Schmachtenberger https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4NlLuNj0v8 made in this pod cast. TLDL: after WWII we setup this system of no more global wars BUT exponential growth and the system self terminates in 2024. So the panic is getting very real now.

What is special about 2024, what is supposed to happen then?

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#265

Post by Demiurge »

UncleMeat wrote: post #215
Demiurge wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it doesn't. HODL equals "hold". "Buy" means make an active decision to buy, hold means make a passive not to make a decision.

Money is fungible. There is no rational difference between "continue to hold X BTC that I already own" and "buy X BTC today when I currently own 0 BTC."

There is a logical difference between making a decision that some time is a right time to make a decision and making a decision that you don't have enough confidence in either decision.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#266

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

tomp wrote: post #254
CryptoPunk wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no idea what future crypto prices will do, but you do realize that smart contracts allow people to bank, from their browser with nothing but a MetaMask extension, without a bank, right? There's heavy dose of speculation present in any emerging market, but crypto, especially its smart contract sector, is not just speculation.

Wasn't there an article recently, that basically revealed that "from their browser/device" basically means just using the API to access the blockchain? So you're still using "a bank", just that the bank is the API provider. A bit more modern, but not a game changer.

That was perhaps about Ethereum, whose Blockchain seems to be so unwieldy that one very few companies manage to process it directly, and everybody else uses their API.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#267

Post by kmeisthax »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #13
bla3 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the last month: VTSAX is down 9%, AMZN (hardest-hit Big 5) is down 16%, BTC is down 34%.

Netflix is down 35%, not sure why Google would be seen as the hardest-hit FAANG.

The dirty secret of "FAANG" is that Netflix is not a FAANG company anymore despite literally being the N of the acronym.

The idea behind FAANG was to create a catchy acronym for "high-growth, big-cap tech stock". At the time, maybe it made sense to stick Netflix in the acronym - but their business model was also radically different than it is now. It also wasn't really sustainable: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google all own their "moats[0]", Netflix is just a middle-man that licenses content.

The FAANG business model is all about creating your own sovereign territory on the Internet through capex and licensing. You spend a lot of money building out the best tech platform possible, and then license that out to as many people as possible so you can take 30%[1] off of the top of every transaction ever. This also implies being "cynically inclusive": trying to onboard anyone and everyone, regardless of their absolute economic value as a customer or the company's ability to support them. 30% of pennies adds up across billions of individual publishers.

Netflix does not do this, never have, and never will. They only license premium video content, which means they're exclusively working with people who actually have negotiating leverage. Furthermore, the people selling that content are better-capitalized than Netflix and can afford to just DIY/self-host their own streaming service. Thus, their business model is less like YouTube, and more like Comcast. The amount of profit Netflix can make off of premium content is far lower than FAANG companies make off of the "30% of pennies" model. That's also why they moved into content production - owning the shows is more valuable than owning the screens they are showed on.

Counting Netflix as a FAANG makes absolutely no sense and we should just pretend the N stands for, oh... I dunno. Does Alphabet own an "N" company yet? Is there any other platform owner out there that has an "n" somewhere in their name?

[0] A tech company euphemism for a monopoly. Amazon likes to call it a "flywheel". Other companies use the phrase "stickiness".

[1] A lot has been made of "the 30%", especially in the context of Epic v. Apple. In my opinion, the problem is not the fact that the cut is 30%, or even that it exists at all; it's just a convenient shorthand for market power gained from owning the platform.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#268

Post by dfghdfhs »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #146
skrebbel wrote: post #19

I own no crypto and I think it's a ridiculous piece of hype, but I think all that reporting (and, on twitter, all that schadenfreude) about bitcoin (etc) going down is nonsense. If you look at a 5 year chart of the BTC value, it's still super insane high and it's been going down hard once before (summer 2021). If I were a crypto fan I'd just tweet HODL like every previous time.

The thing about Bitcoin specifically, though, is that there are only really 2 possible outcomes: 1. The world decides it's "tulips" at some point, and the value goes to 0. 2. The world decides it will be a major part of the financial system, and it goes to 500k or 1 million. Basically, anything in between is just a probability calculation of whether it will end up at one end or the other. The problem with this, thoug…

> 2. The world decides it will be a major part of the financial system, and it goes to 500k or 1 million.

Where does this belief come from?

Dollars are also a major part of the financial system, at yet each dollar is only worth $1.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#269

Post by jrochkind1 »

khuey wrote: post #233
jrochkind1 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not an expert in how currencies work, but it's worth nothing that Switzerland, like most countries, keeps most of it's own reserves in USD (presumably treasury bills), and has around 1 trillion in USD in reserve. Which is not unrelated to the value of it's own currency and their ability to stabilize it. But I am not claiming to be able to explain the details myself. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/switzerland/offici…

That number you're looking at is "total Swiss foreign currency reserves in units of USD" not "Swiss foreign currency reserves that are USD". Switzerland, for reasons that are fairly obvious, holds large Euro reserves. At the end of 2020 USD was only ~35% of that total amount.

Good correction, thanks! Still 35% of reserves is plenty!

I hadn't considered how many reserves have probably shifted to euros since the euro, that's actually a big deal for the US. Anyway...

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#270

Post by paulus_magnus2 »

>> Investors are also assessing the impact of further regulation on the cryptocurrency market. Last week, Russia’s central bank proposed banning the use and mining of cryptocurrencies.

Being a cautious optimist of decentralised money I think it's safe to say we've not achieved the main goal of having our currencies shielded from (rougue) government actions with the current designs (ETH, Bitcoin)

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