261–270 of 492 posts
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I've held a short position on USDT through AAVE for a couple months now. USDT would have to go to ~2 to liquidate me.
If USDT goes, so does AAVE and everything else. And as has been mentioned, the iFinex crew have squeezed USDT to $1,000 before.
Why would AAVE blow up if USDT blows up?
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Coinbase will swap your USDC for dollars. It's pretty painless.
Today they will, for a few people, for small amounts. The problem being discussed here is that they can't every day for arbitrary numbers of people and amounts, because they don't have enough USD on hand.
I don't understand how Tether has survived this long. Bitfinex and Tether sure look transparently like a fraud, all the way back to the "no really we have $1 in the bank for every Tether but you can't audit us" days. And yet it continues to occupy its role as the underpinning of most cryptocurrency markets. Why hasn't it blown up yet? My best guess is that it's useful to everyone taking in money from new retail inves…
It's very easy to short tether, it costs around 4-5% a year. You can do it directly on FTX, or you can do it on ethereum by borrowing tether on aave against, say, USDC, and then selling it for USDC. You can do this in significant size, 8 figures+ if you'd like.
The same ability is spinning up for sushiswap as well if you don't want have any exposure to other assets blowing up and threatening the collateral you care about.
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> What’s the bid/ask on the Oct 8 SPX 4550C going to be at open tomorrow, assuming SPX opens around 4400? Bid 0.00, Ask 0.05 Minimum price tick == 0.05 on ES options. I would sell you some for 0.01 but Globex won’t let me.
I’m not buying any 4550Cs. You do understand my original comment chain was talking about a complete tether collapse where it has 0 value and not just a temporary dip in price.. right? Go read arcticbull’s comment about 6 levels up, that’s the scenario I was referring to in my comment. I’ve traded both ES and SPX options so you can stop quizzing me about them. By the way, minimum price tick on ES options is .25 (which…
Ok, and? If USDT is worthless, you expect market makers to continue to be willing to hold it? You seem upset that an MM would wouldn’t bid > 0 for something with ev = 0. I’m not sure what you actually expect here. A Tether collapse is exactly the sort of moments that market makers don’t want to be involved in, because that’s not what market making is. It’s the definition of toxic/informed flow.
> By the way, minimum price tick on ES options is .25 (which is $12.50) lmao.
Hey genius, that’s only for options where the premium > 5 which in the above case it isn’t.
Per the contract spec:
> Reduced Tick:
> 0.05 index points = $2.50 for premium at or below 5.00
But you wanna take shots at me? Adorable.
> I’ve traded both ES and SPX options so you can stop quizzing me about them.
Haha man quit larping on HN. Do you mean SP options? Or maybe you mean SPY options. There are no SPX options because it’s an index, not an underlying.
> If you don’t believe me, look at the option chain, mr career hedge fund options trader guy (your words, not mine).
Hahaha oh man, I’m dying. So much bravado, so little to show for it. It’s weird because someone like yourself who has totally, for sure, traded loads of ES options…would know this from experience.
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Bennett has done a fantastic job. There WILL be a movie about this company when investors lose faith. Like next decades, "the big short".
But how exactly do you short stablecoins? You can't and even if you did the game is heavily rigged against you. If you remember in the movie, Cohodes got his ass handed to him as banks margin called him out of his position and that's in a regulated market. These guys own their market and the exchange on which it originates. There's no way to even verify if they received dollars for every tether issued and by some mir…
https://app.fulcrum.trade/trade
5% is a low cost for a short position that you believe will eventually pay out 100%.
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Keep in mind that the original Ponzi scheme ran for quite a while and even had the media defending it as a great investment. Tether (and most crypto) seems like someone copied Ponzi's original scheme 1:1. Put in some money, transfer it to another format (Tether to other crypto, with Ponzi it was stamps), then eventually pull out loads of cash. Some people will undeniably get rich off it. But it's not sustainable.
The part I have never seen elaborated on in the "Tether is a Ponzi" claims is at what point will people using Tether make money? Tethers are IOUs to facilitate moving USD between financial institutions (mainly between exchanges, and mostly used by the exchanges themselves). You can spend $1 USD to get 1 Tether that is "redeemable" (by trade, not through the Tether company) for exactly $1 USD. A Ponzi requires some ki…
They always use precise wording about their holdings “commercial paper”. I’m guessing it’s not US treasury bonds equivalents or they would say that explicitly
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Re your first claim it just takes time. Re your second claim, that’s a common misconception. The price of bitcoin would skyrocket against USDT but pancake against USD. Who in their right mind would sell their (actually worth USD) Bitcoin for your worthless Bahamian IOUs? Absolutely nobody. So you’ll see a massive skyrocket against USDT and as soon as people realize what’s going on, it’ll go no-bid. RIP. Then the ensu…
I hope you're right. I think the major tipping point would be a major exchange deciding to no longer accept it.
runs fundamentally all work the same way, whether its Greek bonds, deposits in a bank, etc.
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> It's super cool that their 5K turns into 6K in 10 years time Ok, I get it. You’ve not actually looked at what other investments are like. 20% return over 10 years? The S&P 500 is on track to do that this year, after one of the biggest rallies in history last year. $5k invested just before the covid collapse would still be worth far more than $6k, and that’s 18 months through a global pandemic. That said, your answe…
As much as I enjoy pissing on boomers, older home owners did nothing for their houses to appreciate. It's just something that happens due to monetary policy, low interest rates, local scarcity of supply and a growing population. A lesser known reason is that since the 2008 crisis, hardly any new homes got built. Whilst the underlying demand was still in place, and growing. "You can’t sell anyone a home for $485k if t…
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It's trivially easy for anyone to short tether, simply take out a DeFi loan of tether backed by any other crypto collateral (including e.g. USDC so you don't have liquidation risk). It will just cost you a few % APR to keep the position open
Absolutely do not do this. Do not bet against the house inside casino walls. If you have enough capital to weather potential dislocations, the only real way to play this is to be long off shore (perps, probably) and short CME. This position is long BTC/USDT vs short BTC/USD, the net of which is short USDT/USD. The reason for doing it this way is if it doesn’t play out, or goes to 100k first, you’re just wearing a bit…
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I've held a short position on USDT through AAVE for a couple months now. USDT would have to go to ~2 to liquidate me.
If USDT goes, so does AAVE and everything else. And as has been mentioned, the iFinex crew have squeezed USDT to $1,000 before.