Job vacancies surge past one million in new record • Hacker News Board

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#261

Post by Factorium » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

Workaccount2 wrote: post #213

Factorium wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you permanently reduce immigration, including deporting unauthorised migrants, you can achieve both of those things. Given the cost of land and building, we should consider Western nations 'full' and only allow immigration 'swaps' from other highly developed countries.

The issue with this though is two fold: 1.) You cannot have a nation of college degree high skilled workers. At least until robots and AI are widespread. Being rich is a lot less fun when you cannot spend it anywhere, because none of those places have a staff. 2.) Since people aren't having kids, and we love to saddle the future with liabilities, someone has to fill that void. All the hot shot AI inventory management…

1) The ratio of people with a tertiary degree is probably too high. In past decades, only about the top 25% had university degrees:

https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/files/images/graph_month-stat_...

2) Fertility is heavily influenced by the availability of housing. Without immigration, house prices will fall and wages will rise, providing a boost to fertility until the population equalises.

https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-...

With mass immigration you shortcut that, and simply end up replacing the original population, probably with negative overall effects if the incoming population is not genetically (average IQ, predisposition to violence) or culturally (respect for women etc.) aligned.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#262

Post by hirako2000 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

long_time_gone wrote: post #116

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Second part is not that simple in global economy if you have Chinese cheap labor as direct competitors especially in the food industry where margins for farmers are already too low. I would recommend Jeremy Clarkson - "Clarkson's Farm" first year of operation on a 300 acres farm made a yearly profit of £144 :)

==first year of operation on a 300 acres farm made a yearly profit of £144== Profit in Year 1 is better than most of the startups I read about on HN.

A bit like wework, far less loss though.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#263

Post by nicoburns » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #144

nicoburns wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The context of this post is that companies are having difficulty hiring and are having to increase wages. Which is what is being hypothesised to lead to price increases. Which would suggest that wage increases would come first in this instance.

Yes, but they're hesitant to do that because of the impact the wage increases (which then get passed on to consumers) will have on sales. There's this notion that companies could simply double or triple wages with a negligible impact on the bottom line or consumer prices but are just being dicks. Which is not really the case. Margins are just razor-thin. So you get in a sort of Mexican standoff situation. Who's going…

If they can't find staff then the companies don't have much choice but to raise wages. They'll lose more sales if they have to close their business due to lack of staff.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#264

Post by nicoburns » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #176

nicoburns wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Medium term I think this political will will change as fewer an fewer people Can afford housing

Probably not in the UK, as the house-owning population are much older and tend to vote Conservative (the current governing party). Young people are already screwed, and unless they all show up to vote in marginal constituences (unlikely) then they'll continue to get screwed, unfortunately.

Right, but the age cohorts that are screwed are only going to get older over time (unless policy changes).

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#265

Post by jimbob45 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:39 PM UTC

FredPret wrote: post #194

_vbnz wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Step 2 just isn't happening, at nowhere near the levels necessary. Instead people are investing in housing as a "store of value" against inflation, maybe not even renting it out and just hoping it appreciates. This is driving prices sky-high. Meanwhile local politicians and boomers support NIMBYism and oppose all housing developments, leading to a massive shortage in housing. Landlords love this as it increases the v…

> Meanwhile local politicians and boomers support NIMBYism and oppose all housing developments This is the problem - artificially constrained supply. Fix this and the lower prices will follow. Fix other things and you’ll just create further distortions and frustrations later on

Making more houses won't solve the problem - there will just be more houses to rent out at vastly inflated prices.

Renting houses simply shouldn't be such a profitable endeavor. There have been stories posted where hotels snap up apartment units for AirBNB because those make more money than hotel rooms. That should never be the case.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#266

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #142

nly wrote: post #44

Housing is anything from a third to 50% of the average UK earners take home income. Median house price to median income ratios are at historically high levels[0], and rents are now also rising[1] Either wages need to rise or house prices need to fall. [0] If you look at somewhere mundane like Essex the median 'affordability ratio', as measured by the Office of National Statistics ( https://tinyurl.com/x5jatcx8 ), was…

Wage rises without solving the housing issue is only going to raise house prices further. There's a bunch of potential solutions, but no-one directly benefits from them in the short term. Any attempt to fix it will be met with sob stories about old ladies in multi-million dollar homes being "forced out of their homes". So we'll all just sit and watch as things slowly spin out of control.

Old ladies in multi-million dollar homes is largely a myth. Sure, there are some of them. But it's absurd to think this is anywhere near the majority. Short Term rentals make up These are just excuses. These aren't real problems.

The real problem is artificially low interest rates, artificial scarcity caused by NIMBYism, low downpayments (backed by Fannie & Freddie), tax breaks for home owners but not for renters, high income taxes, low property taxes, etc...

The vast majority of homeowners are just everyday regular homeowners, almost twice as many as everyday regular landlords. Little old ladies and short term rental operators make up <3% of the market. You can only blame them for much.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#267

Post by yodelshady » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

nly wrote: post #70

pibechorro wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation will make any increase in wages meaningless. It will also further drive investment into housing to escape the free falling cash. The answer is no lockdowns, no bailouts, and no quantitative money printing to oblivion. Let the everything bubble pop and start over with sound first principles. We will get there, but not before politicians make it worse and delay the inevitable defaults.

- Boris Johnson (the British Prime Minister) sold his London family home in 2019 for £3.75M after having rented it out for £2000/week (just under 4x the national average income) while living in his Government provided accommodation in his role as Foreign Secretary (2016-2018).[0] - Property prices have shot up 10% during the pandemic, bolstered in part by the Government cutting stamp duty on sales. - A few days ago t…

> Nobody in power is popping the property asset bubble in the UK any time soon. It's a sacred cow.

It's a bad mad, especially considering how much the Tories have relied on there being homeowners. Their whole thing is that that group is the sensible middle, who work for a living, but also appreciate that suppliers of capital have limits.

Odder still to not protect flat owners with cladding (I'm not one, FWIW). Higher-density housing is happening, and you've just told your next cohort of supporters to a) never invest in this asset class, we will render it worthless, b) never vote for us either, even as homeowners we won't support you.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#268

Post by hirako2000 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #250

willcipriano wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more you think about it the worse it gets. It's one thing to be in favor of immigration, it's another thing entirely to be in favor of illegal immigration. The Tyson Chickens of the world love illegal immigrants, they don't file workers comp claims or take you to court if you fail to pay them. Supporting illegal immigration is supporting the creation of a untouchable quasi-slave caste. If immigrants had the same…

That's certainly right. One of the big lies in the US today about illegal immigration is that there are 11 million illegal immigrants in the US. That has been the same number touted for most of two decades (it's still mindlessly repeated by talking heads on TV). The real number is now closer to 22 million illegal immigrants, according to a recent Yale study [1]. Representing around 6% of all people in the US. So wait…

Or simply relax immigration policies to basically let migrants get work permits, they would argue for a fair wage, and we can let the market decide. From what history says, that's what the US used to be in previous centuries. People came and worked, and grew and made what the US had become before politicians decided to make it harder and harder for migrants to settle legally.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#269

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:44 PM UTC

benbojangles wrote: post #199

M2Ys4U wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'd be tackling housing prices. The government has absolutely no desire to do that. Their voter base is predominantly home owners who think of their house as an asset that should only go up in value.

I agree. Also, High streets don't have to 'die' due to excessive rent either, the government could hike taxes on vacant stores 1000% then make possession orders on unpaid premises after 18 months. Then the gov can nationalise shop rents according to reasonable incomes.

[deleted]

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#270

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:44 PM UTC

M2Ys4U wrote: post #108

prawn wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be tackling housing prices. I think wages (in AU, at least) already render many small businesses unviable. Historically in Australia, it's seemed like houses have doubled in price every 10 years. More recently, it's seemed like every 5 years. A house I bought 10 years ago would now be 2.5* that as land value alone. A building I bought has apparently doubled in value in five years.

>I'd be tackling housing prices. The government has absolutely no desire to do that. Their voter base is predominantly home owners who think of their house as an asset that should only go up in value.

When the average person makes more money sitting in their house than they do working - it's a gift-horse that is hard to look in the mouth...