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MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

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261–270 of 438 posts

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would make sense if he's comparing only against fossil fuels. But what was written was: > I like to think of solar, batteries, fission, and wind as compelling ways to go mostly carbon free and lower energy costs about 2x over the next 20 years or so. > Fusion is what reduces energy cost potentially another 10x, which really changes the game for lots of things. Exciting stuff. Kudos to this team. If the 10x is fr…

> which we won't if current efforts are par for the course. Because while renewable energy production is increasing rapidly, it is nowhere where we need it to cancel fossil fuels. Nothing will be soon enough. That would have been now or ten years ago. But anything that gets us there sooner will reduce the damage we have done, and fingers crossed, allow us to start undoing it.

If you have a cheap means to an end or an expensive one, and you have limited funding because of politics, you will want to pour all your money into scaling the cheap means - then you'll get there much, much faster.

I live close to a wind turbine factory. They could easily have scaled production multiple times over the past five years. The only reason they didn't is funding, in fact during that period they at some point cut production when subsidies were cut.

I think it's getting to a point now where subsidies are not needed. But still, if you're talking about speeding up the process, you can just provide a little extra funding and get big results.

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How is that reasoning specific to fusion? A major cost of the most utilized existing power plants (coal and natural gas) is fuel. If you build a natural gas plant which is twice as big so that you can put it out where the land is cheaper and eat the transmission losses, now you need twice as much natural gas. Renewables don't need fuel but their construction cost is fully linear, you get no economies of scale. If y…

> A major cost of the most utilized existing power plants (coal and natural gas) is fuel. Coal is dead. The competition is PV, and to a lesser extent wind. > Renewables don't need fuel but their construction cost is fully linear, you get no economies of scale. If you want twice as many solar panels then you need twice as much land. Yes, and you use odd bits of land close to consumption sites, many of which will have…

> Coal is dead. The competition is PV, and to a lesser extent wind.

Coal is dying but it's still ~20% of US generation. The natural gas share of US generation has gone up.

> Yes, and you use odd bits of land close to consumption sites, many of which will have simultaneous use for other purposes.

Until you run out of those and then your costs increase worse than linearly because you have to start using more expensive land.

> the linearity is an advantage in that it enables mass production, and gets the benefit of the manufacturing learning curve.

Anything you're going to use for a large fraction of the power grid is going to be mass produced.

> Quadrupling your construction costs.

This is the opposite of how economies of scale work. If you make something bigger, the variable costs scale linearly and the fixed costs stay the same but are amortized over more units.

> Also, making your generators much bigger than current practise increases project risk and therfore cost.

This is no different than needing twice as many turbines to generate twice as much power. It's a variable cost, offset by you getting twice as much power without increasing your fixed costs.

> Quadrupling your construction costs again, and decreasing reliability, capacity factor and productive lifetime.

You keep saying "quadrupling your construction costs" without evidence. We build oil platforms in the ocean on a regular basis. They cost some tens of millions of dollars. Existing fission reactors cost some billions of dollars. The difference from being on the ocean is evidently not the dominant cost. And then you don't have to pay for land.

> Seawater is nasty stuff.

Many existing reactors are situated on coastlines and cooled by seawater. It's not some kind of insurmountable problem.

> It will be used for productive farmland, though.

The price of "productive farmland" compared to the price of land near a city is multiple orders of magnitude less, and high density power generation doesn't need that much land.

> Again, why aren't fission or CCGT plants being built in those places? How is fusion different?

New fission reactors largely aren't being built at all because of regulatory suppression. CCGT plants can't afford to spend fuel generating power which is then lost to long distance transmission.

> It's about time to cashflow for utility finance types, and they also tend to want a longer track record than "it worked once".

If it worked once but is now generating ten times more power per unit of investment capital than any of the alternatives then investors would be lining up, and may not even be needed because the plant operator could use revenues from selling such a large amount of electricity to build more plants with.

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#263
post #34

Plenty of skepticism in these comments. I've been following CFS for a while and can present a point of view for why this time might be different. Fusion energy was actually making rapid progress in the latter half of the twentieth century, going from almost no power output in the fifties and sixties to a power output equal to 67% of input power with the JET reactor in 1997. By the eighties there was plenty of experim…

You are right, people who flippantly dismiss fusion just don't understand it. -Fusion has made consistent improvement, roughly in line with expectations for the level of investment (20 years away predictions were considering if we invested massively, which we did not). - Fusion is in theory something that could give us true energy abundance. Want to just desalinate water like crazy? Want to extract gigatons of carbon…

The fusion equivalent of Ballmer’s infamous “developers developers developers” line is “materials materials materials”… and we’re getting there quickly!

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#264
post #256
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s about the same infrastructure than a nuclear fission reactor. And nuclear electricity is already pretty cheap. I don’t know how it costs in US, but in France, fully charging a Model 3 costs about ~5€ at night. That’s not 10x cheaper than gas but that’s a lot cheaper.

There are two problems with this reasoning. First, you are comparing the cost of written-off plants, for a technology that has huge upfront costs and much lower fuel costs. Fission is not cheap if you build a new nuclear plant, not in the Western world. That's why almost no nuclear plants are being build. Making a safe plant is just really, really complicated. Second, this specific argument can be used to see why fus…

Maybe I’m wrong but fission also don’t need extreme cooling utilities. And fission seems to be way more secure than fusion. So, while I do agree on the « new tech » costs, I’m pretty confident we’ll be able to build this plants anywhere in the world and not only near rivers.

But maybe I’m too optimistic :)

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#265
post #34

Plenty of skepticism in these comments. I've been following CFS for a while and can present a point of view for why this time might be different. Fusion energy was actually making rapid progress in the latter half of the twentieth century, going from almost no power output in the fifties and sixties to a power output equal to 67% of input power with the JET reactor in 1997. By the eighties there was plenty of experim…

There are still fundamental problems with fusion reactors that are unlikely to make them economically viable, or even carbon neutral.

Most notably, the extreme temperatures, hydrogen pumping, and high-energy neutron bombardment mean that, even with liquid metal blankets, the reactors will very quickly become brittle, probably not lasting more than a year or two. Since neutron bombardment also turns any material radioactive, not only do you need to tear down your fusion plant (or at least the expensive reactor part of it) every few years, but you have to do it with radiation-resistant robots, as human workers can't get close to the reactor after it's been operating for a while.

https://thebulletin.org/fusion-energy-nuclear-fusion/

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, people who flippantly dismiss fusion just don't understand it. -Fusion has made consistent improvement, roughly in line with expectations for the level of investment (20 years away predictions were considering if we invested massively, which we did not). - Fusion is in theory something that could give us true energy abundance. Want to just desalinate water like crazy? Want to extract gigatons of carbon…

don't solar panel prices half every five years (similar to moores law modified)? fusion would need to speed up then to be competitive with the solar revolution

solar needs sun and massive batteries to handle base load. fusion base load + solar + wind + batteries sounds like the end game.

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#267
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, people who flippantly dismiss fusion just don't understand it. -Fusion has made consistent improvement, roughly in line with expectations for the level of investment (20 years away predictions were considering if we invested massively, which we did not). - Fusion is in theory something that could give us true energy abundance. Want to just desalinate water like crazy? Want to extract gigatons of carbon…

>You are right, people who flippantly dismiss fusion just don't understand it. I have a couple of physics degrees, hot fusion is the energy of the future and it always will be. This is not a physics problem, this is an engineering problem and we are just not willing to invest enough money to solve the engineering.

Commonwealth Fusion Systems is privately funded and aiming to demonstrate net energy gain in 4 years. It's not like the lumbering ITER project.

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#268
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anybody looking at numbers sees fusion never, ever producing so much as a single erg of commercially viable energy. So, anybody saying otherwise is simply making it up.

The sun does pretty well.

Except we didn't need to invest money in it...

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#269
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always wondered: why exactly is ITER so expensive, and slow? Is the engineering required at such a standard that it should takes decades of planning and construction and tens of billions of dollars? The timeline is so dilated (started in 1988, first plasma planned for 2025!) it feels like the kind of project that's expected to be cancelled from the start. It just doesn't strike me as obvious that reducing the ma…

ITER is a victim of a process seen frequently in large public-works projects, but particularly those where no one understands what anything really should cost, and where there is no practical deadline for completion. It is worst when there is no expected utility when it is done. We see it lately in the numerous military procurements (particularly the F-35 program), in NASA's SLS rocket, in California's bullet train t…

That's some hating BS right there. ITER might fail to produce economically viable fusion energy, but it certainly won't fail to produce a massive amount of scientific and engineering innovation.

The sole fact that such a scientific undertaking can be done internationally, over decades, is a great thing considering the global problems we face.

Yes, ITER doesn't follow the USA economic ideology of "much", "cheap", and "now", but the world doesn't consist only of the USA and not everything works well with that ideology.

ITER is not a PV or battery factory. It is more like the ISS.

Re: MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

#270
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we got to the point where cost wasn't a factor would the carbon footprint be extremely low? I assume at some point we'll be unable to ignore climate change and our survival will depended on minimizing it using large amounts of energy from a source that doesn't have a high carbon footprint.

If only ~30% of CO2 emissions are from power-plants (at least in the US, probably higher globally considering developing nations) then replacing those installations with fusion won't directly zero things out... ... But if "cost wasn't a factor" then we could just simply dedicate the electrical output of fusion plants to brute-force CO2 out of the air.

If fusion drives electricity prices into the ground, transportation is going to rapidly go electric.
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