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Why is it so hard to be rational?

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Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#261
post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To late to edit the above comment, but just for the record, this is my actual response to the many-worlders: http://blog.rongarret.info/2019/07/the-trouble-with-many-wor...

Thanks, that was interesting :) One thing I'm curious about: I haven't read the literature all that well, but my personal understanding of MWI, after trying to wrap my head around it, is that there's probably no branching or peeling at all: every possible configuration of the universe immutably exists and is associated with a complex amplitude. What does change are the amplitudes. When I make a choice at point A and…

> Does that make any sense

Not to me, sorry.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#262
post #14

I maintain that it isn't just hard, it is computationally impossible. We should all know that given a belief about the world, and evidence, Bayes' Theorem describes how to update our beliefs. But what if we have a network of interrelated beliefs? That's called a Bayesian net, and it turns out that Bayes' Theorem also prescribes a unique answer. However, unfortunately, it turns out that working out that answer is NP-h…

NP hard problems get abused for justifying things they cannot. An NP hard problem, even if it cannot be approximated does not mean the average input cannot be solved efficiently. Examples: - An NP hard problem is not sufficient for building crypto. - Type solving for many programming languages is EXP TIME complete, yet those languages prosper and compile just fine. Beware the idea of taking a mathematical concept and…

One thing I notice these days on line is people overgeneralise about everything (irony intended).

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NP hard problems get abused for justifying things they cannot. An NP hard problem, even if it cannot be approximated does not mean the average input cannot be solved efficiently. Examples: - An NP hard problem is not sufficient for building crypto. - Type solving for many programming languages is EXP TIME complete, yet those languages prosper and compile just fine. Beware the idea of taking a mathematical concept and…

And human beings make approximate solutions for the average input all the time. That's what gut feelings, instincts, heuristics, and motivated reasoning are, along with all the other shortcuts we take to function in daily life. The article is asking why it's so hard to be rational though, i.e. follow a logically-valid set of inferences forward to an unambiguous conclusion. Assuming one of your premises is that correc…

Following a fully logically valid set of inferences seems extremely inefficient - we need to make decisions constantly and relying on short hand for most of those seems perfectly rational - it's rational to trust irrational gut feelings for most unimportant decisions because trying to fully prove all actions is a fool's errand.

I think the article is more focused on those big decisions where rationality is certainly warranted and so often ignored. People who are highly skilled at life have developed their gut feelings and instincts to be able to determine which decisions they really need to sit down and think hard about and which ones they can mostly ignore. When most people buy their first house the decision is so immensely large and represents such a high value (more than half a million at least for a lot of city folk) that there is a desire to detach from it to free yourself from responsibility - since you cannot sanely account for all factors it is "safer" to protect your ego by delegating the decision entirely on your id - doing so allows you to, post de facto, entirely free yourself from any responsibility of your poor decision. This, I think, is the main factor we need to fight against to make rational decisions - you must accept failure and be willing to be wrong without shame. Do your best to evaluate your options on important decisions and realize that there are a number of decisions you obviously can't fully rationalize out - you can only make your best attempt. But realize that making your best attempt and being wrong - as much as it might hurt your ego - is a better alternative than "letting it ride" and being able to stand blameless on the far end.

The fight for rationality is mostly a fight against emotional fragility and intellectual laziness.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#264
This is a bit similar to the book-in-progress “In the cells of the eggplant”.

https://metarationality.com/

I highly recommend reading it. I found it extremely clarifying as a working scientist/engineer and someone who has been persistently nagged by the deification of rationality.

The OP even uses the term “metarational” (though used to mean something different), which made me surprised when “The Eggplant” was not mentioned.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could just say, well, if we transmit covid by air, then putting something in front of my mouth is going to decrease the spread. That's what is being rational. If I squint at a statement like this, I guess it could be called rational, but it is certainly not rigorous or convincing. You brush over too much and are making lots of assumptions. Are these statements rational? The sun is warm, so if I climb a ladder I…

> "You should wear masks because rigorous science tells us that it is effective." you've really just glossed over the hard part, which is when and where masks work, which is in turn the difficult political problem to solve. simplifying, covid spreads mouth-to-mouth with a brief stint in the air, not mouth-to-air-then-(much)-later-to-mouth, which is the mediopolitical narrative that's being pushed vehemently but irrat…

[deleted]

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#266
post #104

I think there is a simpler explanation that draws from evolutionary theory: being excessively rational is not a good survival strategy, be it in the distant past or today. If our ancestors would have made the rational assessment that there is unlikely to be a predator hiding behind the bush, that would have worked only as long as it worked, until one day they got eaten. Irrationally overestimating threats and risks i…

Just because there's a 99% chance the bush has no predators behind it does not make it rational to assume there are no predators.

In Bayesian decision theory, you'd choose the action (walk directly by the bush; walk by the bush but have your guard up; steer clear of the bush) that minimizes your loss function (e.g. probability of dying or probability of your blood line dying out). You'd end up picking a path that balances the risk of being eaten by a lion with the cost of having to walk further (and thus having less time and energy to gather food; or tripping and cutting yourself and dying of infection; or whatever).

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#267

Studying logical fallacies and behavioral economics biases have been the best ways for me to become more rational. I'm constantly calling myself out for confirmation bias, home country bias, and the recency effect in my internal investment thought process. Learning about logical fallacies and identifying them in conversations is great. Don't tell the counterparty of their logical fallacies in conversations cause that…

Some are grateful to have them pointed out, after a bit of initial discomfort and resistance. Didn’t work out so well for Socrates of course, but we’re more enlightened now.

If you want to be like Socrates it'd be better to not simply point out the fallacy but make people realize the fallacy with the Socratic method.

As far as arguments go "That's an XXX fallacy" is one of the weaker ones, if not fallacious in and of itself.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#268

My problem in everyday work is so often I have to deal with so-called software engineers who fancy themselves quite the scientific thinkers but whose irrationality borders on delusional. In fact a lot of them believe "I'm very smart, so I am therefore the most rational" which is obviously not true at all. In fact this will probably make a lot of so-called software engineers angry but I tend to think of the non-techni…

I have observed that behavior in many other professions where the participants view themselves as very smart. Physicians and lawyers are at the top of that list.

I was chatting with a couple of software engineers, one of whom had just come from working at a research hospital on a project involving some imaging devices. The other engineer asked him if the physicians were tough to deal with, and he responded that no, not especially. But the physicists! Oh, the doctors hated the physicists for thinking they knew everything!

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#269
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, for example, let's say that I can buy from ShoeCo or big, evil Amazon. But big, evil Amazon allows me to donate a portion of their proceeds to a charity of my choice, and furthermore, I am also within my rights as an individual to take the difference between ShoeCo's price and Amazon's and donate it to another cause as well. Some will say that buying from Amazon simply perpetuates Amazon... but Amazon is so lar…

If Amazon is so big that your purchase is meaningless, then the problems of the world are also so big that your donations are probably meaningless. If your donations have some tiny bit of meaning to them, then removing a tiny bit of business from Amazon and paying your local shopkeeper probably also has meaning.

Whether a business is local means little to me if the local owner is a spendthrift who mistreats or pays his employees poorly. For example, when I was a kid, the local video shop owner would hire high school kids at minimum wage and keep them on payroll right underneath the statutory limit for certain workplace protections before firing them. Should I reward that asshole just because he's local?

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#270
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perfectly rational means just what it sounds like. Making the correct decision because you have all available data. Being perfectly rational is impossible.

Would a perfectly rational person duck if there were a 50% chance they were about to be punched? Or would they do nothing?

A perfectly rational person would have all available information. Since ducking wastes energy vs. doing nothing, if they were going to get hit they would duck, and if not, they would do nothing.

But again, being perfectly rational is impossible.

I don't know how to make it any clearer.

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