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The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

rogerpielkejr.substack.com

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Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#261

Post by inglor_cz »

saddlerustle wrote: post #75
74B5 wrote: post #48

Poluation x Goods/Services x Energy/Resource demand x Waste production = Human impact on earth It seems fairly common to picture the earth heading to an unstable overpopulation but imo this is only a comfortably narrowed down perspective on large scale problems. Especially for western countries, it is tempting to focus on the global population issue because this is primarily a phenomenon of rural, poor regions, so no…

It's possible to generate energy, harvest resources and store waste with minimal impact to other life on earth.

So why do we pollute and kill?

It is possible for you and me to climb Mt. Everest. In all likelihood, neither of us is going to spend several years and all his savings towards this goal.

Possible does not mean practical.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#262

Post by inglor_cz »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #60
orwin wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South-eastern Mediterranean situation was caused by repeating drought since 2006 collapsing their agricultural production. A drought in 2010 in Russia reduced their grain production by 30% and doubled the price of grain during the winter 2010-2011: it was basically a death sentence to already famished people in some African countries (Centrafrique, but also Sudan at the time), but what wasn't expected was the price o…

Again, these famines are also entirely a socioeconomic crisis, not actual lack of food. If Sudan wasn't a terribly run place at war with itself on two fronts, it would not have food shortages. If Somalia had a functioning government at any point in the preceding two decades, it would not have food shortages. Supply chain disruptions occur all the time in the global food market, but in non-basketcase countries there's…

This is a chicken-and-egg problem. Every famine has a socioeconomic component. Theoretically you could just dump food from elsewhere into every Somali village, practically you cannot, because of the lack of security.

Is it possible to build a functional government and maintain peace if food shortages are a regular thing? I am not so sure. This kind of conditions brings warlords to power, who cement economic instability, thus never alleviating food shortages. A vicious cycle.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#263

Post by xaedes »

throwanem wrote: post #189
wyldfire wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've started to think that expecting armageddon is an innate part of human psychology. Sci-fi novel plot starter: it's a quality that has been selected for by interstellar progenitors who seeded life on Earth, so that we would be wary of the need to mitigate real planet-scale disasters.

How do the "Precursors" get around evolution? I've seen this used as a plot seed for any number of space operas, but as far as I can recall, I haven't seen any that used it and also explained how they were able to somehow instill traits which, over hundreds of millions or billions of years, could not only remain present but unexpressed in the genomes of Nth-generation offspring, but could then, in response to some ki…

> How do the "Precursors" get around evolution?

One way would be to apply selection pressure over time and let the people experience "numerous tribe-ending disasters" as one other commenter said. Then there is no need for these "Precursors" in this theory, it could very well just be all natural.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#264

Post by foolmeonce »

tharkun__ wrote: post #255
dmm wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Socrates probably didn't say that and if he did so what? What argument are you actually making? "Two thousand years ago someone complained about X and people also complain about X now. So X is no big deal!"? Hippocrates complained about malaria. Does that mean contemporary concerns about malaria are invalid?

Fair enough though not the point I was trying to make :) The parent mentioned "kids these days" and also "It's funny to watch, a lot of these have seen before and will again.". Whether Socrates actually said this (or some other famous or not so famous guy from over 2000 years ago), it does show that that assessment is probably very very correct. And very funny to read indeed. Even if you don't agree with all of the p…

OTOH, Socrates lived through the rise of Athens to prominence (their great generation?) and the generation he complains about would have been the ones to stop it's decline (our boomers -millenials.)

(So his observations could be of a cultural cycle rather than what every generation experiences from each perspective.)

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#265

Post by marcus_holmes »

h0l0cube wrote: post #241
marcus_holmes wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but emissions are only one part of the equation - logging a forest will produce more net atmospheric carbon than taking a long-haul plane trip, even though cutting down trees doesn't emit anything. The biggest carbon sink is the ocean, so doing things that damage the ocean (like dumping trash into a river) are more of a concern. There's also other environmental concerns than CO2 and climate change. Damaging jung…

Not sure why you'd think I wouldn't be concerned about logging, or waste, or environmentalism in general - especially given what I wrote. I am, for the record.

glad to hear it :) but your comment concerned only greenhouse emissions, which is all I was addressing.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#266

Post by throwanem »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #205
throwanem wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do the "Precursors" get around evolution? I've seen this used as a plot seed for any number of space operas, but as far as I can recall, I haven't seen any that used it and also explained how they were able to somehow instill traits which, over hundreds of millions or billions of years, could not only remain present but unexpressed in the genomes of Nth-generation offspring, but could then, in response to some ki…

> How do the "Precursors" get around evolution? Easily. Make the genetic machinery responsible for the trigger hideously complex, redundant and, if possible, self-repairing (perhaps via a gene drive), and have loads of other genes rely on specific bits of it, so that a single alteration in that machinery will make life suck for the mutant without much preventing the trigger. Evolution can't make big changes, because…

How does anything "rely on specific bits of it" if it's noncoding? How does the gene drive remain intact across millions of generations' worth of mutation events? How are mutations in noncoding DNA selected against?

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#267

Post by Izkata »

OrbitRock wrote: post #141
eloff wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not directly. It will cause mass migration and refugee crises as coastal cities and low lying areas slowly flood. That seems inevitable at this point. That could maybe lead to wars, and nuclear war is still an existential threat. If the changes somehow disrupt the ability to support cereal crops in the northern hemisphere (which actually is also the biggest risk from nuclear winter), that could lead to wides…

What worries me most is the patterns of precipitation shifting. If we saw significant changes to where is wet and where is dry, we’d be scrambling to catch up and the fallout could be pretty large.

Related to that, destabilizing weather patterns in general - a few weeks ago the polar vortex dipped further south in the US than ever before and Texas was caught really off-guard.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#268

Post by Nasrudith »

dmm wrote: post #253
tharkun__ wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Kids these days": > The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers. ― S…

Socrates probably didn't say that and if he did so what? What argument are you actually making? "Two thousand years ago someone complained about X and people also complain about X now. So X is no big deal!"? Hippocrates complained about malaria. Does that mean contemporary concerns about malaria are invalid?

Malaria is largely the same - we have better treatment options but it is still the same disease.

Society is very much not the same - for one pedastry is a severe crime instead of an accepted institution. Insensitivity to changing circumstances hints at a fixed belief. If your compass always points to the same place on the dial as north it is broken. Not to mention that nearly everybody loves luxury - that is partially why it is expensive above and beyond production price!

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#269

Post by phkahler »

weakfish wrote: post #229
phkahler wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If humans did nothing, we could expect glaciation in the next 100 years or so. Do people really think what we're doing can prevent that? If so, do they really think we can regulate the planet well enough to avoid both bad outcomes?

Source?

Sorry, I meant 1000 years. Source: the historical record shows the planet has been in cyclical glaciation for several million years.

Edit: ok maybe several thousand years: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

But the norm seems to be an ice-free planet. Remember, there are plant remains buried under the arctic permafrost.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#270

Post by Nasrudith »

BurningFrog wrote: post #63

As I've gotten older and seen predicted doomsdays come and go, I've started to think that expecting armageddon is an innate part of human psychology. I'm not aware of any era or place where many people have not expected the world to meet disaster soon. It's a part of all major religions.

I suspect it is fear of death and the world moving on without them gone somewhat narcissistic. So as they fear their own uncertain death in their lifetime they project it onto the world.
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