Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#261

Post by athms » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:34 AM UTC

Obi_Juan_Kenobi wrote: post #228

tw04 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in places like California every few years, and I wonder how throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at extremely high rates is going to be absorbed. Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works right now.

Simple: most people charge at night. Sure, fast charging will add some day-time demand, but it's not much. Cheap night-time pricing keeps the charging demand off-peak. More even demand curves make generation more economical. It becomes trivial to upgrade distribution where needed.

>Simple: most people charge at night.

Except the people that don't have a charging station in their garage or folks that have a power outage. Just this week, we had a heat wave (70-80F) and winds up to 90MPH across California that resulted in power outages throughout the state as well as several fires.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#262

Post by stcredzero » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:34 AM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #246

My problem is renting apartments. If you ask the strata or the building managers about charging points in the carpark, they look at you like you're speaking Klingon. This is true of even very recently completed buildings in well-off areas of relatively wealthy western countries. Heck, I just walked past three Teslas in my building's car park, one of which is new and wasn't there last week! Do people... not plan ahead…

My problem is renting apartments. If you ask the strata or the building managers about charging points in the carpark, they look at you like you're speaking Klingon.

There is legislation on your side in California now. It's even called "right to charge!"

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#263

Post by dzhiurgis » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:36 AM UTC

908B64B197 wrote: post #71

lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

Battery pack depreciation is the one thing that worries me the most. But I wonder if it would be possible and cost effective to test cells and combine the cells that are still good into a newer battery pack. Maybe by the manufacturer. Or to just rate an existing one and give it a score so the consumer can have a clue.

So far it's only Nissan that has pretty bad batteries. AFAIK everyone else actively manages the temperature when charging/discharging and are over-provisioned.

Plus batteries are getting dirt cheap. As in - TCO is less than your tyres.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#264

Post by mywittyname » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #246

My problem is renting apartments. If you ask the strata or the building managers about charging points in the carpark, they look at you like you're speaking Klingon. This is true of even very recently completed buildings in well-off areas of relatively wealthy western countries. Heck, I just walked past three Teslas in my building's car park, one of which is new and wasn't there last week! Do people... not plan ahead…

A staggering amount of buildings are built to code, and nothing more. If code says that there needs to be 1.5 parking spaces per bedroom for the complex, and the complex has 80 bedrooms, you can bet there will be 120 parking spots.

Apartment managers will be dragged kicking and screaming into offering chargers for cars. The best way to get chargers into apartment buildings is going to be a local mandate that they have a charger per X units.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#265

Post by athms » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #191

tw04 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in places like California every few years, and I wonder how throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at extremely high rates is going to be absorbed. Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works right now.

If a Tesla battery is 100kWh and it gets like 350 miles - and you can get 6 hours of sun on a 350 watt panel per day on average - that means 2 panels could charge your car about once per month, right?

Do you thinks everybody lives in a single family home with lots of disposable income?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#266

Post by drewg123 » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #246

My problem is renting apartments. If you ask the strata or the building managers about charging points in the carpark, they look at you like you're speaking Klingon. This is true of even very recently completed buildings in well-off areas of relatively wealthy western countries. Heck, I just walked past three Teslas in my building's car park, one of which is new and wasn't there last week! Do people... not plan ahead…

I rent a townhouse right now. When I moved in, the landlord allowed me to install a 240v outlet in the garage at my own expense.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#267

Post by vkou » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #246

My problem is renting apartments. If you ask the strata or the building managers about charging points in the carpark, they look at you like you're speaking Klingon. This is true of even very recently completed buildings in well-off areas of relatively wealthy western countries. Heck, I just walked past three Teslas in my building's car park, one of which is new and wasn't there last week! Do people... not plan ahead…

> Do people... not plan ahead? Do architects not read the news?

Neither the architect, nor the developer, nor the landlord are the beneficiaries of charger infrastructure. They aren't going to spend money on it until they absolutely have to.

Given the decade of record-low vacancy rates in coastal metros, if a lack of an electric charger is a deal-breaker for you, they will shrug their shoulders, and move on to the next applicant. To them, you are the product, not the customer - the customer is the bank that underwrites their loans, that they use to buy/build more properties, backed by cashflow from tenants.

They certainly aren't going to put dollars down today, to meet demand that will come a decade from now. The entire business model of being a residential landlord is spending every penny you have on acquiring more property to lease - not making long-term investments into existing property.

If you're looking for someone to blame, blame cheap availability of credit, or your local municipality for not updating their building codes to require electric chargers [1].

[1] The reason they haven't updated their building codes is because in my experience, 8 times out of 10, municipal politics is completely dominated by landlords and developers. Those groups of people are the most affected by municipal law, so they have a huge vested interest in making sure government is looking out for their financial interests.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#268

Post by xsmasher » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #191

tw04 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in places like California every few years, and I wonder how throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at extremely high rates is going to be absorbed. Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works right now.

If a Tesla battery is 100kWh and it gets like 350 miles - and you can get 6 hours of sun on a 350 watt panel per day on average - that means 2 panels could charge your car about once per month, right?

Alternate numbers: typical home solar installation delivers 10-15 kWh per day. Tesla model 3 has 50kWh battery and 220 mile range.

15kWh * (220 miles / 50 kWh) = 60 miles of charge a day.

If your commute is less than 30 miles each way you don't touch the grid to charge. Of course if you plan on getting or have an electric car you can always get a larger system.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#269

Post by dzhiurgis » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:38 AM UTC

cptskippy wrote: post #222

dzhiurgis wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This why a lot of stations are now moving to adding batteries to meet peak demand. Also if you have lots of stalls of cars charing to 100%, you can steal some of their charge and route to someone who needs to get to 80% ASAP. Also, fast charge is very slowed down in cold climates and/or when you are reaching 80%.

> Also, fast charge is very slowed down in cold climates and/or when you are reaching 80%. Some EVs with temperature management systems can precondition the battery for charging. This negates reduced charging speeds at extreme temperatures.

In theory, yet look at Bjorn's videos and that not always the case with TM3. You can't preheat much when you have 5% battery left!

Definitely it's the way forward tho!

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#270

Post by viraptor » Sat, Jan 23, 2021, 12:39 AM UTC

cptskippy wrote: post #210

marvin wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest problem is peak power. The naïve approach is to try to pull 500kW from the grid during the 20 minutes that you have five cars charging, then zero once they leave. This will at best be very expensive, but most likely impossible as the local grid won't support it. So a battery buffer needs to be built into the charging station in order to operate them cheaply, with a smoother load profile that the power com…

That will be less of a problem than you think. Power demand is already inconsistent throughout the day. Depending on the time of year it will peak around noon or in the evening but overnight the demand is low. When people start charging overnight at home the overnight loads will increase. This will intern allow power companies to increase capacity.

I suspect new payment plans will get more popular soon. I'm not familiar with the US providers, but in Australia there are already at least two companies allowing you to buy energy at a current, hourly adjusted price. I expect that in a couple of decades "energy cost arbitrage via car charging" will be a normal thing.