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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

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Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#261

Post by jpxw »

belorn wrote: post #260
IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The system is secure and robust, at least with regards to the mechanics of individual votings. Among the main factors is its distributed nature. You just can't run a scam with senior citizen volunteers in thousands of individual precincts. Then, there are observers. Famous case from this week's election was Republicans complaining that their two dozen(!) observers weren't allowed closer than 6 feet to the ballots. It…

This is a golden opportunity for the left to implement a policy which historically the left has been advocating for and the right been blocking. National Identification. No more social security numbers, no knowledge about a name or a street. Practically every other country in the world has national identification and uses them as the building block for holding elections, social security, health care, licenses, drugs…

The left have been opposing voting requiring identification (on the grounds that it discriminates against those without it) for years. Even if they brought in national identification, they wouldn’t make it necessary for voting.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#262

Post by benmmurphy »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #148
adjkant wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems reductively easy to see that the basic premise is incredibly flawed here: that ballots are uniformly shuffled in all states. Some very basic things that would cause those exact shifts in the data witnessed: 1. Mail vs Drop Box could very easily have a different ratio, which would easily explain a sharp shift if they counted them in different sets for some states when it's a plateau and a hard line jump. 2. S…

> With no shred evidence of voter fraud at any level I feel like this is actually the most suspicious thing here. In a country of over 300 million, in one of the most contentious elections in living memory, not one person was found to have committed voter fraud? It seems more likely that we're just terrible at detecting voter fraud rather than that there were literally zero instances of voter fraud anywhere. Which im…

It is very easy but more costly than a recount to verify the integrity of an election.

Auditing relies on the assumption that real voters can be linked to attestations and the aggregate of attestations can be linked to the aggregate of votes.

In Australia when you vote in person your named is checked off on the electoral roll. This is an attestations. When you submit an absentee ballot you also fill out a form. This is an attestation as well.

The audit does a full recount of attestations and votes and verifies the totals are the same. Duplicate checking is also performed on attestations.

Furthermore, the attestations are randomly sampled and the real voters are interviewed to check if they actually voted. In the case of absentee ballots the details on the form can be checked as well. The random sample is performed so you have an ‘acceptable’ level of fraud and then you sample enough ballots such that if you were higher than the acceptable level it would be likely to sample a fraudulent ballot.

This process breaks down a bit at this point because of the issue of false positives where the voter cannot be contacted. However, with more work from the auditor it is often possible to distinguish between the voter being uncontactable and voting and the voter not existing, or being uncontactable and not voting.

Because the audit process establishes a trail from real voters to real ballots it is very difficult to commit electoral fraud.

There are some forms of electoral fraud this audit will not detect like bribery and coercion. It also doesn’t prevent substitution attacks where someone destroys real ballots and replaces them with dodgy ones.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#263

Post by zyemuzu »

gwd wrote: post #242
ed25519FUUU wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most of the improvements can be made in relation to voter registrations and rolls. How a state can keep people who have obviously died on voter rolls should be a red flag.

I'm pretty sure if I looked I could find you: 1. A voter registration of a T R D* in the Detroit area in the 1970s 2. A death certificate for T R D from the 1980s 3. A record of a T R D voting in the Detroit area in the 2020 election. That's because T R D from #1 and #2 was my uncle, who grew up in the Detroit area, and died in the 1980s; and the T R D from #3 is my brother, who also grew up in the Detroit area, and…

You seem to miss the point - they do not have the same date of birth. You're oversimplifying the situation and potential of fraud to satisfy your Democratic bias.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#264

Post by jyriand »

maxerickson wrote: post #46
ve55 wrote: post #12

What I dislike about a lot of these potential fraud analysis techniques is that if a group that was performing fraud was aware of them, then they would simply perform the fraud 'properly' such that the given technique(s) don't show evidence (since they know what others are looking for and hoping to find, they simply ensure it isn't there). The same goes for similar techniques like Benford's law: once you know about t…

What 'modern improvements' can be made over paper ballots?

Maybe e-voting from sauna? [0]

-[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vUYq_Lfs54

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#265

Post by Pyramus »

klipt wrote: post #207
skunkworker wrote: post #168

Personally I'm curious how much voter fraud is committed by parents of college students who receive their students absentee ballots and decide to "fill them out" for them. It's the most intentional voter fraud that I'm aware of at the moment and non-conspiratorial. Things like this pop up on reddit occasionally. https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/9twaf9/gfs_dad... https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comme…

Assuming college students are on average more liberal than their parents, parents fraudulently filling in votes for their children would benefit the GOP more than the Democrats.

To be precice [1]:

age 18-29: 35:62 (Trump:Biden)

vs

45-64: 49:50

[1] NYT Exit Polls https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/...

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#266

Post by mschuster91 »

jpxw wrote: post #261
belorn wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a golden opportunity for the left to implement a policy which historically the left has been advocating for and the right been blocking. National Identification. No more social security numbers, no knowledge about a name or a street. Practically every other country in the world has national identification and uses them as the building block for holding elections, social security, health care, licenses, drugs…

The left have been opposing voting requiring identification (on the grounds that it discriminates against those without it) for years. Even if they brought in national identification, they wouldn’t make it necessary for voting.

Then make it free of charge and offer a version for illegalized people to carry.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#267

Post by motogpjimbo »

mschuster91 wrote: post #266
jpxw wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The left have been opposing voting requiring identification (on the grounds that it discriminates against those without it) for years. Even if they brought in national identification, they wouldn’t make it necessary for voting.

Then make it free of charge and offer a version for illegalized people to carry.

I'm not American, so this comment confuses me. Why would illegal immigrants be allowed to vote or carry an official government-issued ID?

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#268

Post by arrrg »

roenxi wrote: post #232
IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The system is secure and robust, at least with regards to the mechanics of individual votings. Among the main factors is its distributed nature. You just can't run a scam with senior citizen volunteers in thousands of individual precincts. Then, there are observers. Famous case from this week's election was Republicans complaining that their two dozen(!) observers weren't allowed closer than 6 feet to the ballots. It…

> It would be impossible for fraud to happen on any regular basis and not coming to light. So the incidence of 0.00002% is somewhat informative. Individual fraud, sure. But treating 0.00002% as some sort of tolerance on the election results strikes me as likely bullshit. That is nearly 7 9s levels of precision. The electoral system is fault tolerant, but it is not 7-9s accurate. Boxes of ballots will go missing, and…

The problem is that making it seem as though fraud is an actual problem is a political weapon used to suppress voters.

So, sure, making sure that elections can’t be tampered with is important – however, don’t for one second assume that by saying such a thing you can be above the political fray.

This argument is abused as a political tool to take people away their rights.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#269

Post by gwd »

zyemuzu wrote: post #263
gwd wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure if I looked I could find you: 1. A voter registration of a T R D* in the Detroit area in the 1970s 2. A death certificate for T R D from the 1980s 3. A record of a T R D voting in the Detroit area in the 2020 election. That's because T R D from #1 and #2 was my uncle, who grew up in the Detroit area, and died in the 1980s; and the T R D from #3 is my brother, who also grew up in the Detroit area, and…

You seem to miss the point - they do not have the same date of birth. You're oversimplifying the situation and potential of fraud to satisfy your Democratic bias.

And you're assuming bad faith, perhaps due to your Republican bias.

The main examples I've seen on my feed are claims of dead people voting, all of which match the situation I described. If you're talking about people still registered where the DoB makes it unambiguous, then yes, we're talking about different situations.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#270

Post by belorn »

jpxw wrote: post #261
belorn wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a golden opportunity for the left to implement a policy which historically the left has been advocating for and the right been blocking. National Identification. No more social security numbers, no knowledge about a name or a street. Practically every other country in the world has national identification and uses them as the building block for holding elections, social security, health care, licenses, drugs…

The left have been opposing voting requiring identification (on the grounds that it discriminates against those without it) for years. Even if they brought in national identification, they wouldn’t make it necessary for voting.

Shouldn't that be an issue they could meet half way on in order to get national identification implemented? Here we have an hook for which the right could get behind, and the benefit of national identification is very clear for all that time between elections.

It would indeed discriminate against those without it, but then a national identification is given to everyone who has a right to vote. One is directly linked to the other. In countries with national id you have to have the card if you want to buy alcohol, buy tobacco, drive, go to the doctor, get social security, banking, and many other regular stuff which people need to do multiple times between elections. If it something people need daily, they will have gotten it before the election.

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