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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

businessinsider.com

261–270 of 348 posts

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#261
post #198

I don’t have a very good grasp of economics, but can anyone explain why it makes sense to give someone $1000 to do nothing when you can pay them $1000 to do something productive, like build a road? Ideas like negative income tax, government supplemented minimum wages, or increasing EITC makes more sense to me.

That is in fact a fundamental distinction between the Universal Basic Income and the Federal Job Guarantee.

One criticism of the UBI is that being unmoored from production makes it extremely inflationary. That requires high levels of tax to destroy enough money to offset the inflation.

https://www.realprogressivesusa.com/news/economic-justice/20...

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#263

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

What about very slowly ramping it up? For example, over 20 years? If a problem begins to appear, it could be slowly ramped back down. I suppose this wouldn't work politically, since the first politician that tried to ramp down the income to save the economy would be swiftly booted to the curb.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#264
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because the stuff they get for existing has to come from someone else.

> Fairness is not about everyone getting the same amount just for existing, for that in itself is not fair. > because the stuff they get for existing has to come from someone else. Your statement doesn't hold unless we assume "it is unfair for one person to provide for the needs of another (unless it is reciprocated)", and it isn't at all clear that we can take that axiomatically. Even setting to one side the more ob…

> Your statement doesn't hold unless we assume "it is unfair for one person to provide for the needs of another (unless it is reciprocated)", and it isn't at all clear that we can take that axiomatically.

the axiom is more like "it is unfair to force one person to provide for the needs of another."

obviously some people would disagree, which is their right. however by making this axiom and their disagreements with it explicit, we can discuss the reality of the situation more clearly.

> if we were to assume that one person could, through their labour, provide for the needs of everyone else, why does it obviously follow that it is "unfair" for everyone to survive solely that person's labour?

well would it be fair to force that person to provide for the needs of everyone, if they could do so but chose not to?

> More generally, it really isn't clear to me that these questions have such simplistic answers.

agreed. but discussion can help us to understand the question better, and perhaps if we realize that there is no "right" answer then that conclusion could still help us to create a society where everyone is better off.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#265
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real fairness under that definition can't exist as long as there are inheritances. People who are born in wealthier families are not playing under the same rules (just imagine if a person playing Monopoly started with ten times the initial amount of money). I prefer a definition of fairness that is actually achievable[1]: everyone has at least the bare minimum, regardless of fitness and deserving. You can quibble abo…

What's the difference between your local grocery store clerk, and a Hollywood actor? They both likely have cars, homes and an iphone. Sure, your Hollywood actor is probably driving an exotic sports car and their iphone is diamond studded, but fundamentally, what does it matter? > housing, food, education and health. Any society where anyone can't get those things by asking for them is not fair I agree in the general…

I agree that simply blaming the wealthy isn't the solution to these problems, but your perspective regarding the plight of the American poor seems a bit rosy to me.

> We do provide housing for the poor

Waiting lists for both subsidized housing and homeless shelters are overflowing in many places. Have you ever tried to obtain housing as a person with limited resources?

> short term homelessness outcomes are actually generally positive - we tend to get people who lose their home back into another house.

What do you mean by positive? That most people don't stay homeless forever? Sure, that's better than the alternative, but you're ignoring the consequences of becoming homeless in the first place (ex. losing a job because you don't have a place to shower, sleep, or are simply overwhelmed due to your position, eviction records that make it difficult to rent again, exposure to unsafe conditions, etc.), as well as the factors that contribute to that phenomenon.

> community college in most areas is exceedingly affordable with massive scholarship opportunities available for ivy leagues.

Community college is not as cheap as many imagine it to be. Tuition typically runs $3 - 5,000/year, which doesn't include fees, course materials, or, most notably, living expenses. Financial aid isn't as generous as many would expect - as you'll see below, a grocery store clerk earning $22,646/year would receive less than $1,500 in grant aid (while being expected to contribute ~ $4,700/annually). Loans can help, but they can also become a considerable burden, especially for the 47% percent of college students who don't end up graduating within six years (or, ever, for the majority of those students). [10] Perhaps surprisingly, the typical community college graduate actually takes around 5.5 (calendar) years to earn their associate's degree (assuming no participation in "dual enrollment"). [11] If they continue on to earn their bachelor's degree, the overall process typically takes more than 8 (calendar) years. [11] That's a long time to be in a financially-tenuous position.

I may as well ignore your comment regarding the Ivy League, as the amount of poor Americans who will find it relevant is virtually zero.

> You can walk into any hospital and it's illegal for them to refuse you treatment.

...for them to refuse you treatment for a life-threatening injury, not regular checkups, non-essential treatment or preventative medicine. And if you are treated for an emergency, you'll be billed for it later. Although the ACA has made things much better for Americans, you can't simply walk into a hospital and expect free healthcare without health insurance.

> What's the difference between your local grocery store clerk, and a Hollywood actor?

> They both likely have cars, homes and an iphone.

If your grocery-store clerk is a middle/upper-middle class teenager whose parents give them those things, sure. Otherwise, this assumption seems pretty unrealistic to me. Some quick googling seems to confirm my assessment...

According to Glassdoor, the average American grocery clerk makes $22,646/year ($1,532/month) after taxes. [1] Abodo says that rent for the median one-bedroom apartment in the US cost $1,078/month last year. [2] That doesn't include utilities, which average around $240/month for renters. [3] That leaves your grocery clerk with $214 to use for all additional expenses each month. Owning a (cheap) car costs around $486/month overall, according to Nerdwallet (including a $111 monthly car payment [4] and $118 for car insurance [5], plus misc. expenses). [6] Now this grocery clerk is going $272 further into debt each month. If they want an iPhone and a ("cheap") phone plan from a major carrier, that will cost an additional $90/month (assuming they buy the cheapest iPhone 11 and keep it for two years - $700 / 24 - and opt for the cheapest standard phone plan [7]). At that point, they're spending $362 more than they earn every month and they haven't even spent anything on food, household goods, clothing, entertainment, or education!

Assuming this person wanted to improve their financial situation by attending community college (average tuition: $3,660 for 2018/2019 year [8]), they'd be eligible to receive around $1400 in Federal Pell Grants (depending on their state) and up to $1,465 in Federal Work-study benefits (assuming their college participated in the program and that they could manage working two jobs while going to school full-time), plus up to $9,500 in Direct Stafford Loans (note: not dischargeable through bankruptcy). [9] However, they would still be expected to contribute around $4,700/year toward their education.

1. https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/grocery-clerk-salary-SRCH...

2. https://www.abodo.com/blog/2019-annual-rent-report/

3. https://www.apartmentlist.com/renter-life/average-utility-bi...

4. Calculated using https://www.cars.com/car-loan-calculator/ (assuming $5,000 car price/$500 down payment/7% sales tax/4.67% interest rate/48 month term)

5. Assuming average American cost in 2020 https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/car-insurance/average-co...

6. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/auto-loans/total-co...

7. https://www.consumerreports.org/cell-phone-service-providers...

8. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/tuition-at-community-college...

9. Calculated using above income info via https://fafsa.ed.gov/spa/fafsa4c/#/landing (Note: "Expected Family Contribution" (EFC) ended up being around $4,700/year)

10. https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/freshman-year/just-over-half...

11. https://nscresearchcenter.org/signaturereport11/

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Friedman proposed a negative income tax which is different, and arguably better, than a standard flat payment.

It's barely distinguishable from UBI for any practical purpose.

Not really. It scales with income, motivates working, is more fair, and avoids a blanket handout which would just raise the prices of everything in response.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's barely distinguishable from UBI for any practical purpose.

Not really. It scales with income, motivates working, is more fair, and avoids a blanket handout which would just raise the prices of everything in response.

I think you are confused about how either UBI or negative income tax works. The most important difference is that negative income tax would do payouts once a year, and even that is not a hard requirement. Other differences are accounting differences and not practical differences in how much money people have available (as they can be made identical by tweaking the tax rates and tax brackets).

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#268
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that is why it will fail. Fairness is not about everyone getting the same amount just for existing, for that in itself is not fair. Real fairness is everyone playing against the same rules and being treated the same under the law. Sadly governments and politicians are too corrupt to implement real fairness and have decided instead for the populist way out while keeping their insane advantage intact.

Real fairness under that definition can't exist as long as there are inheritances. People who are born in wealthier families are not playing under the same rules (just imagine if a person playing Monopoly started with ten times the initial amount of money). I prefer a definition of fairness that is actually achievable[1]: everyone has at least the bare minimum, regardless of fitness and deserving. You can quibble abo…

Some people are also more attractive and they are able to capitalize on it easily, they are treated better etc..

You are just targeting one thing it's called inheritance, what about other things like "social network and connections which are passed to the new heirs in the family", beauty/atheletic abilities and other talent?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#269

I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism. And I say this, living in a country that has had something similar to a basic income for years, although not fully universal (universal for kids, and people below certain income line), the vast majority of people get it and ended up resulting in that around half the public budget goes to social expenses. Every year that bag gets bigger, defic…

> I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism. I haven't seen price drops since many people stopped working and can afford less, so I don't expect the system to work logically in the other direction either.

You probably won't see prices dropping, as many businesses are selling much less and they need to keep prices to cover the costs.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#270

I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism. And I say this, living in a country that has had something similar to a basic income for years, although not fully universal (universal for kids, and people below certain income line), the vast majority of people get it and ended up resulting in that around half the public budget goes to social expenses. Every year that bag gets bigger, defic…

What country is this? Iran?

Argentina
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