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Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

nature.com

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Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing humans, and living things in general have, is enough complexity to be self aware on some level. There is US, our parts, and the rest of the world, and OTHERS. A computer, brain in a box, lacks that. Maybe one embodied in such a way as to be capable of "the self" may display emergent properties similar to how we and the animals do.

The complexity that makes human intelligence possible is already accessed by a brain-in-a-box through a limited set of interfaces; it's just a mushy organic brain and bone box rather than an electronic brain and steel box. It's probably reasonable to argue that an AGI would require interfaces to all of the outside world's complexity to be self aware, but there's nothing stopping us from building it those interfaces.

No.

There is a major league difference, and that is the closed loop our body, the aspect of being, missing from everything we have made so far.

In a technical, not inclusive sense, I agree with you. Brain in a box is part of the story.

I do question "limited"

Again, in the technical sense, we do build interfaces that offer superior capability. But, they are nowhere near as robust and integrated.

I am not saying complexity itself makes us possible, though I do believe it is a part of the story.

Higher functioning animals display remarkable intelligence, yet they are simpler than we are in many ways, including the intelligence itself.

We feel, for example. Pain, touch, etc. And when we pay close attention to that, we can identify where, how, when, and map all that to US, what we are and know it is different from others, and the world overall.

Pain is quite remarkable. There are many kinds. Touch is equally remarkable as is pleasure.

Ever wonder why pain or pleasure is different depending on where we experience it? Why a cut on my leg feels different from one on my foot, or hand? Same for a tickle, or something erotic.

I submit these kinds of things are emergent, and happen when the whole machine has enough complexity to be self aware. Even simple creatures demonstrate this basic property.

Beings.

We have not made a being yet. We have made increasingly complex machines.

As we go down that road further, I suspect we will find emergent properties as we get closer to something that has the potential to be.

Not just exist.

I realize I am hand waving. That is due to simple ignorance. We all are sharing that ignorance.

Really, I am speaking to a basic difference that exists and how it may really matter.

Could be wrong too. Nobody is going to know for some time yet. Materials science, our ability to fabricate things, all are stones and chisels compared to mother natures kitchen.

We are super good at electro mechanical. We are just starting to explore bio-mechanical, for example.

The latter contains intelligence that we can see, even if we do not yet understand.

The former does not. Period.

Could. Again, nobody knows.

There are things stopping us, and I just articulated them.

But not completely!

Scale may help. If we did build something more on par with a being, given our current tech, it would end up big.

And every year that passes lowers the bar too.

We can make things today that were science fiction not so long ago.

One other pesky idea out there too:

There may be one consciousness.

A rock, for example, literally is an expression. It has a simple nature, no agency due to low complexity. But, it's current state is what happened to it, how it formed, where it moved. And it is actually changing. The mere act of observing it changes it in ultra subtle ways.

Now, look at bees, ants. Bees know what zero is, appear to present far more complexity in how they respond to the world, what they do, than their limited, small nature might suggest.

Why is that?

What we call emergent may actually be an aggregation of some kind. Given something is a being, perhaps a part of that is a concentration of consciousness.

I am not a believer in any of that. I just expressed our ignorance.

But, I find the ideas compelling and suggestive.

They speak to potential research, areas where we could very significantly improve our ability to create.

Doing that may open doors we had no idea even existed.

We may find the first intelligence we end up responsible for is an artifact, not a deliberate construct.

In fact we may find a construct is not possible directly. We may find it just happens when something that can BE also happens.

Anyway, I hope I have been successful in my suggestion there remains a lot to this we flat out do not know.

Yet.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are taking huge liberties in forming equivocations which mislead your conclusion. The tacit knowledge description only talks about the acquisition process of the knowledge, not that the knowledge itself is outside bounds of rationality or the physical world. By the same token when you claim "humans have intelligence that is impossible to express through reason or codification" the entire argument hinges on the ac…

This is a good point, but I will add, from close discussions with Dreyfus, his position was that it's impossible because it's fundamentally impossible, not because it's intractable. (see my other comment for more)

Interesting to learn about Dreyfus, I was aware of this line of thought from Francois Chollet's article. He is the creator of Keras and some pretty advanced research papers in the nature of intelligence.

He states that the environment and embodiment are crucial for the development of intelligence. Even for humans, 'our environment puts a hard limit on our individual intelligence'.

https://medium.com/@francois.chollet/the-impossibility-of-in...

The implausibility of intelligence explosion (2017)

..

In essence we need simulators on par with reality to train human-like intelligence. BTW, take a look at ThreeDWorld, just came out: 'A High-Fidelity, Multi-Modal Platform for Interactive Physical Simulation'. We're getting closer, and AI scientists are aware of the environment problem.

http://www.threedworld.org/

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#263
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their body is their hardware, sensors, interfaces and means of changing the world through controlled devices which can include robot arms and legs or vehicles. Computers can learn and be trained to do things and get better at them, such as using genetic algorithms and machine learning. They’re rudimentary, but real.

They aren't of sufficient complexity and robustness to self identify. Our bodies offer a closed loop, very robust and complex feedback system. Our intelligence can process that and learn all sorts of things. Can learn what is "them" and what is other. Without those things, a computer, as we have constructed them so far, really don't have a childhood.

I think if you perceive a computer as a single cell of an organism, you can see more clearly what I mean.

And computers' childhood is happening right now.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#264
There is a better explenation: there's no practical point to GAI.

Humans are automatons - so we see a 'single unit' of intelligence.

The Internet is a vastly connected system.

A 'basic robot' in a factory in China can have access to 'all the world's information'.

The power of 'masses of data, services, systems' all combined, means that 'the Internet' itself, in the broadest sense, will be much more intelligent than any GAI anyhow.

Example: Is Siri 'AI'? We don't think of 'Siri' as a thing, rather a service, a front end to a lot of things.

Well - 'Siri' is going to get really, really smart and be able to do a ginormous number of things in the future, including have 'human level' conversations with you, predict your needs and moods. She'll be talking to a billion people at once! Isn't that even 'beyond' GAI?

The factory will be able to take a design, command robots to prepare, place orders for parts, design work schedules for humans, prepare shipping, anticipate problems. The factory is waay smarter than a human, is it 'GAI'?

Siri, the Factory, your car, the grid of traffic, the financial system, distribution networks - it's all working together to do things utterly beyond any individual 'GAI'.

And as these things develop, there really never is a real economic driver for a true, atomic style 'GAI' like you see in the movies. There's no reason for a company to spend $500B building a 'Data' from Star Treck - because everything he could do, would otherwise be performed much more efficiently, cheaply and intelligently by a system or group of systems oriented towards those tasks.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#265
post #216

I came to this article expecting a logical proof of why AI was impossible, but instead found the following tautological argument: hard AI, which I define as intelligence with tacit knowledge, which in turn I define as knowledge that cannot be ran in algorithms, is impossible to be ran in algorithms. Disappointing. My counterpoint: is there anything that cannot be ran in algorithms? The way I see it the only thing sto…

The primary thing stopping you from simulating every atom in a brain is a lack of knowledge about atoms and the brain. AFAIK we can't even simulate hydrogen and oxygen atoms with enough detail to get the emergent properties of water.

AFAIK for hydrogen we can, but for oxygen the nucleus is already too big to simulate all the phenomena from first principles.

Anyway, the fact we haven't been able to do it is not a proof that it's impossible. The article claims that impossibility.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#266
post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every deep learning system has tacit knowledge: it knows a chair when it sees one but can't explain how it knows. A traditional computer program that can find the derivative of sin(x) also can not explain how it knows.

> A traditional computer program that can find the derivative of sin(x) also can not explain how it knows. Oh but it could , and that's the point. Some computer differentiation techniques just follow the same rules you learned when you took calculus. They typically don't show you which rules they followed, but they easily could . Other differentiation techniques are more exotic but there's no reason they couldn't sho…

That lack of a chain of reasoning just doesn’t feel any more significant to me than the fact that a human can also not endlessly regress upwards explaining every bit of knowledge they have or every reason they made a decision. Likewise the computer algebra software can only answer “how did you know that?” so many times in a sequence.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't of sufficient complexity and robustness to self identify. Our bodies offer a closed loop, very robust and complex feedback system. Our intelligence can process that and learn all sorts of things. Can learn what is "them" and what is other. Without those things, a computer, as we have constructed them so far, really don't have a childhood.

I think if you perceive a computer as a single cell of an organism, you can see more clearly what I mean. And computers' childhood is happening right now.

That's more like evolution, like basic chemicals combining.

Computers are not yet like organisms. They are getting super complex.

A childhood is a very different thing still.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#268

Here is, to me, the relevant line: "Hubert Dreyfus, who argued that computers, who have no body, no childhood and no cultural practice, could not acquire intelligence at all. One of Dreyfus’ main arguments was that human knowledge is partly tacit, and therefore cannot be articulated and incorporated in a computer program. " I have not read the rest of the article but in the introduction it's stated: "The article furt…

You don't need a soul to justify the existence of knowledge that can't be reasoned. Qualia, emotion, feeling and knowledge soley from sensory observation fill that gap too. All of these things are perceived as a meaning by our brains well before they are rationalized. Feelings and emotions in particular break down under direct reasoned examination.

The mission to simulate a human mind seems more like a cultural precept for programmers. The physical task to create a human mind simulation is a fool's errand. The human body is incredibly complex and I doubt we'll stumble over the ability to sythensize that system any time this century or next.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#269
post #244

Here is, to me, the relevant line: "Hubert Dreyfus, who argued that computers, who have no body, no childhood and no cultural practice, could not acquire intelligence at all. One of Dreyfus’ main arguments was that human knowledge is partly tacit, and therefore cannot be articulated and incorporated in a computer program. " I have not read the rest of the article but in the introduction it's stated: "The article furt…

The Church-Turing thesis only states that the lambda calculus and Turing machines can compute the same functions. It has nothing to do with materialism or dualism and it certainly doesn’t state that the universe is a Turing machine.

The Church-Turing thesis is:

"Every effectively calculable function is a computable function" [1]

The definition is a little terse so we have to expand on what "effectively calculable function" and "computable function" mean.

By a "computable function", we mean a Turing machine. The term "effectively calculable function" is a little unclear but one definition that I think is the closest to the intent is "it can be done by a human without any aids except writing materials." [2].

In other words, the Church-Turing thesis is saying:

"All physically computable functions are Turing computable"

That is, the physical world, including human cognition, can be realized by a Turing machine.

While one formulation might be cast in terms of lambda calculus, this is hiding the underlying assumption that lambda calculus is used as a proxy to simulation of the physical world and, as a subset, human cognition, effectively saying "if it can do lambda calculus, it can do the physical universe and can do human cognition".

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church%E2%80%93Turing_thesis#S...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_method#Definition

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