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536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

sciencemag.org

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Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#261

Post by bryanrasmussen »

aksss wrote: post #132
seph-reed wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are effectively draining our planetary rainy day fund and spending it on cocaine Not usually a fan of us vs them mentality, but your use of "we" here feels bad. Surely, it's all of us that use these resources, nobody on HN is self sufficient (please be the exception). But at the same time, most of us aren't getting much of the "cocaine" here, at least relatively. It would almost be reasonable to say " They are e…

You kidding me? We're all getting the coke. Just because you're not Scarface doesn't avoid the fact that all of us are awash in plastics, silicone, rare earth metals, concrete, steel, precious metals, alloys, goods from far flung lands, industrial agriculture and many assumptions about available services that rely on the same and ravenous upstream fossil fuel consumption. We (as human consumers) never had it so good,…

generally one makes a distinction between Scarface and people who do an occasional line at a party though.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#262

Post by mNovak »

ideals wrote: post #242
AnssiH wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; Huh, so that is why Google Maps keeps asking me whether TP was in stock every time I go the store - I did not realize there were still actual shortages on that elsewhere, I thought it was just a couple of days of panicing in March and that Google was just being weird / behind the times. FWIW, I haven't noticed such disruptions here (Finland…

Why is Google asking you if TP is in stock at the store? Or I guess through what app is Google sending you these questions? I haven't heard of push notifications or whatever it is asking for feedback on in-store items.

I occasionally get questions in Google maps about the places I'm at (e.g. do they have a wheelchair ramp etc); I could imagine that happening here.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#263

Post by arpa »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #219
aksss wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mentioned nuclear. It is secondary to the conversion from coal to gas though in terms of near-term realized benefit. Nuclear requires a lot of dereg and testing that will be decades out if we start today. This assumes the barriers of popular rejection can be overcome. China might pull it off, but I don't see the US radiating enthusiasm for it. But yeah, since few places on earth can take advantage of hydro, I don't…

It does not require dereg, it requires investment. Just lile renewables do.

It just isn't as hot right now as "renewables". What's needed is a good marketing campaign, people will follow, and so will imvestments. Downsides will be gleefully ignored, just like with solar.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#264

Post by phist_mcgee »

koheripbal wrote: post #171
bwanab wrote: post #5

I’ve recently gotten through this period in the “History of Byzantium” podcast series. Justinian had just recently retaken many of the old western Roman provinces, not least of which was Rome itself, and the breadbasket of North Africa. Things were finally looking good for the Romans again when the plague hit. The armies were unfortunately overextended and now half their ranks were dead or dying. It was an irresistib…

Wonderful series. Absolutely amazing. ...and he's now producing the set that extends through the Crusades. If you haven't listened to it, the one on the Siege of 717 deserves it's own bowl of popcorn - super super entertaining. I loved the original The History of Rome podcast that goes through to the fall of the West, but I think I've come to prefer this one even more. The first few episodes require a little patience…

Link?

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#265

Post by arpa »

yummypaint wrote: post #88
lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

It's also a good reason to leave fossil fuels in the ground and not just extract them as quickly as possible wherever we find them. It seems conceivable that we could eventually find ourselves thermodynamically unable to recover after a catastrophy like a big solar flare. Unfortunately there is no way for anyone to make money by being responsible in this way. We are effectively draining our planetary rainy day fund a…

We still have nuclear tech.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#266

Post by swader999 »

Cerium wrote: post #59
pmiller2 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what sense have we “recovered” from supply chain disruptions? I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; have experienced meat shortages in recent days; and stores are still rationing things like hand sanitizer (when you can find it), canned goods, meat, and rice.

One angle on the TP problem is that we didn't just have a shock, we had a shock and then lasting change in demand. I saw an article that says demand for residential sized TP rolls is up 40% because a lot of bathroom visits are happening in homes that used to happen in work places.

Different mills create home vs the more commercial public washroom rolls. Can't shift production easily from one type to the other.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#267

Post by swader999 »

subsubzero wrote: post #58

How many people reading this have a years worth of food? Could any of us survive something similar to this eruption? I think covid really opened alot of peoples eyes to extreme worldwide disasters (volcanos, large earthquakes, pandemics) and how most are not prepared for it at all and yes these things do and will continue to keep happening.

I do. Enough good soil and seeds to go longer too.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#268

Post by owl57 »

lgl wrote: post #172
Symmetry wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There aren't many catastrophes that would totally wipe out Earth but still leave offworld colonies intact. Even after a supervolcanic eruption or plague or nuclear war there'll probably still be more living humans on Earth than on Mars. And supernovas and rogue AIs can wipe out both. I like the idea of settling space because I think human lives, if they're pleasant, are intrinsically valuable and I'd like there to be…

> There aren't many catastrophes that would totally wipe out Earth but still leave offworld colonies intact. Even after a supervolcanic eruption or plague or nuclear war there'll probably still be more living humans on Earth than on Mars. Supervolcanos, nuclear war and meteor impacts are probably the most likely of all and could be survived by offworld colonies. And while these could still leave a lot of humans on Ea…

> Viruses are also a possibility but could also be largely mitigated with multiple pockets of humanity spread by enough distance.

If I understand correctly, SARS-CoV-2 hit some "sweet spot" being rather sneaky and rather dangerous at the same time, but is nowhere near top sneakiness across all viruses.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#269

Post by swader999 »

ghaff wrote: post #117
subsubzero wrote: post #58

How many people reading this have a years worth of food? Could any of us survive something similar to this eruption? I think covid really opened alot of peoples eyes to extreme worldwide disasters (volcanos, large earthquakes, pandemics) and how most are not prepared for it at all and yes these things do and will continue to keep happening.

I'd just point out that keeping a year's worth of food for a rapid and unexpected event is nuclear bunker level prep. It also requires spending a lot of money and storage space on something that's going to have to be rotated out every few years. And while some things can last pretty much indefinitely, other things have shelf lifes and you're probably not going to use all those canned goods during normal times. So the…

Rice and beans are inexpensive and if you pack them right twenty years no problem. I've got six full five gain pales.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#270

Post by ip26 »

castis wrote: post #21
deanCommie wrote: post #10

These kinds of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions could happen today right? What's.......our intended process for dealing with this? Are there any technical solutions for dispersing ash from the atmosphere? I know this is a stupidly naive question to some degree - how do you prevent acts of god, but I am curious if someone has thought about it.

one of the attributes of an act of god is being unpreventable by humans. in the event of something like this, having the supplies to just weather the fallout would be best. a years worth of supplies on-hand would be a good start.

There's some debate about whether we can build a geothermal power plant on top of a volcano to manage the temperature of the hotspot.
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