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Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

bloomberg.com

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Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#261

Post by istorical »

rsync wrote: post #97
airstrike wrote: post #27

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

" ... I'm still slightly bearish on the whole situation due to the combination of the virus' absurdly high infection rate[0] and its ridiculous ~25-30 day incubation period ..." You're right to highlight those aspects of the virus and I find them noteworthy as well. However, the statistics I am most interested in is mortality rate and rate of asymptomatic infections. I note with interest that among the 700+ infected…

Most deaths occur in week 3 or week 4 if they make it that far.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#263

Post by lawrenceyan »

chrsm wrote: post #251
lawrenceyan wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is when you have what currently is the top comment for this article, written in a manner which implies that the writer knows what they are talking about (i.e. /u/airstrike using terminology like "after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there"). I'm calling into question /u/airstrike's legitimacy due to not being able to differentiate between monetary an…

How about you take his apology and move on?

My response was to /u/wpietri who asked for a clarification.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#264

Post by OCASM »

gdubs wrote: post #82
atq2119 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only because the toolset is artificially restricted for ideological reasons. Fiscal responses (having the government spend actual money, either on things like infrastructure it by just handing it out to the population, which will then largely spend that money as they see fit) rather than monetary policy responses (reduce rates and hope that people will borrow more) are known to work well in most cases. The Corona vir…

Keynes famously said you could hire people to dig ditches and it would stimulate the economy. However, if we were to take aggressive action on Climate Change, there’s a lot of potential jobs there. A massive potential stimulus. Also, you know, public funding of basic research which could explore, I don’t know, pandemic response, new therapeutics, etc. Like you said, ideological barriers are what’s keeping us stuck. B…

Keynes's ideas also fail all over the globe. Saving and investing is what grows an economy.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#265

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

ISL wrote: post #93
airstrike wrote: post #27

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days. Source: Page 12, paragraph 2. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

Range is between 1-14 days for what percentage? With what level of confidence?

There are several cases where the incubation period has been over 20 days. Maybe 90% of cases incubate for 14 days or less. Maybe 99% for less than 20.

14 days is not some magic limit.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#266

Post by AnimalMuppet »

tssva wrote: post #194
airstrike wrote: post #27

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

I see 3 things driving the market now. An overdue market correction, reasonable reaction to supply chain issues and an irrational reaction to the virus. A temporary boost to the market gives more time for the true long term impact to the supply chain to play out. It may turn out that the boost only gave a short respite but it may also turn out that it saved the market unneeded turmoil. A short term boost also gives p…

A short term boost does not do much for the overdue market correction, though, other than delay it a bit longer.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#267

Post by toomuchtodo »

Brain_Thief wrote: post #252
throwaway3157 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is also moving into a demographic downturn, thanks to republican policies. Please don't post partisan political comments without a source. Edit: I appreciate the downvotes for kindly asking people to follow HackerNews' guidelines

Since when are sources required for basic observations on reality? Thanks to Republican opposition to providing first-world amenities to U.S. citizens (universal health care access, education access, childcare access, etc.) new generations of Americans are finding it increasingly difficult to start families. The evidence for this is multitudinous and moments away via any search engine...

Fertility rates are equally low in other developed countries that offer universal healthcare, subsidized childcare, etc.

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

I plugged in Denmark and Portugal, and both show lower fertility rates than the US.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#268

Post by OCASM »

RobertoG wrote: post #240
bluedevil2k wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it ironic that the people who say "the government should just spend tons of money because the debt doesn't matter" and don't care about punting the problem to the next generation are the same ones who say how irresponsible the Baby Boomers are for punting the environment problem to the next generation.

The "passing the problem to the next generation" thing doesn't make any sense. There are two possibilities: If in 25 years there wil be enough real resources (machines, infrastructure, knowledge..) for covering all the needs of the people, the accumulate debt is not going to be a problem. If in 25 years there will not be enough real resources, the government finances are going to be irrelevant. So, what is the best w…

Anything but cutting spending, huh?

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#269

Post by cprayingmantis »

yumraj wrote: post #176

China started with single digit cases, which then spread countrywide with tens of thousands of cases and many deaths. They quarantined cities, built 1000 bed hospitals in 10 days. And now after about 2 months they are seeing a slowdown. Why would this exact scenario regarding growth in the number of cases not play out in the US? The only difference is smaller population, but cities are dense here too. However, unlike…

I think the thing that no one is looking at here is that nursing homes and elderly care centers are going to be hot beds for the the virus. From my understanding China and most of these Asian countries is that don't have nursing homes so the house can be isolated. Here in the US we concentrate the elderly in these nursing homes and hope for the best. Most CNAs don't have enough vacation or sick time to miss work so they will continue to come to work if they're feeling a little bad or have a slight fever and they will spread it despite everyone's vigilance.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#270

Post by AnimalMuppet »

quotemstr wrote: post #211
airstrike wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't produce anything if you can't buy parts

What you're talking about is government spending crowding out private spending, which is what happens when the economy is already at full capacity. In this situation, all the spending does is cause inflation, since money alone does not cause goods to spring into existence. It's like pushing on a string. But are we close to full capacity?

Capacity dropped because China shut down. That's temporary (we trust), but it's a drop in global capacity.
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