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Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

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Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#261

Post by scrozier »

NobodyNada wrote: post #239
occamrazor wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self driving cars killed one pedestrian in 10 million miles driven, about an order of magnitude worse than humans

But that’s a sample size of one, so we can’t really draw any meaningful conclusions from that data. (Also the safety driver was watching Netflix on her phone; it could be argued that the vehicle was not production-ready and not expected or intended to be able to handle every situation.)

I'm not sure that sample size is a relevant idea here, but it's certainly misleading as you state it. One accident in many billions of miles would be a wonderful result, but you would dismiss it as a sample size of one.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#263

Post by bdamm »

chillingeffect wrote: post #176
ChrisClark wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dancing cars were fixed several months ago in an update. The computer used to just recognize cars, and then align them according to the lanes it sees. At a stoplight it when it had trouble seeing the lanes clearly the cars would rapidly change orientation. Since they updated the neural net to also recognize the vehicle orientations the dancing has stopped. I have seen a lane change cancel recently, a couple weeks…

Do you know if, when a vehicle disappears, the system assumes the vehicle continues moving as it was when last spotted?

I'm pretty sure that the visualization is only showing highly confident classifications (not sure about the SUV/Pickup thing). Under the hood the algorithm is locating all kinds of objects that could be but are not displayed on the screen as some kind of unknown box. Probably the reason Tesla isn't showing this is because the location and size of objects are uncertain and people would freak out if they saw all that traffic (some of it quite close) jumping around.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#264

Post by xkjkls »

xiphias2 wrote: post #244
xkjkls wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When I'm looking for jobs, my main criteria is market cap / number of employees, and Tesla (as most startups/small companies) was very bad before the stock price went up. Now with high stock prices Tesla can afford to pay market rates (even if it's in stock). You don't care about the work culture at all?

Of course I care, it's just in my experience it's much easier for a company to provide any kind of benefits when the company has money for employees. Before 2008 when I was working at Google, we were just getting more and more fun stuff all the time, and it seemed like it's never ending. I was together with about 200 people in the Zurich office. After the stock price went down, although we just had a hiring stop, the…

Sure, but having worked in a number of different environments and having a family, a work culture that is willing to support me is very important. Tesla and SpaceX don't seem to have that at all.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#265

Post by powowowow »

rager wrote: post #251
tw04 wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Show me a self-driving car functioning in the middle of a blizzard and we can start talking. Southern California and the weather it experiences is a poor representation of what is required for self-driving to replace humans.

I was thinking the same thing. I would think they thought to write in some traction detection, however I've never seen a demonstration of the like. They need to test cars in the heart of MN during the winter; when you can't see the lines on the road, and sometimes the car in front of you.

That is a situation where humans routinely crash.

The machines are better drivers, in that they admit defeat and stop.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#266

Post by xkjkls »

_ea1k wrote: post #66
Traster wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two issues, first: I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now? Second, don't Tesla & SpaceX have a reputation for being a terrible place to work, with Musk expecting everyone to be working as hard (or harder) than him, and firing people in weird and capricious ways.

I've gotten the impression that the "firing people in weird and capricious ways" bit has been greatly exaggerated. I do think anyone taking this has to expect grueling and challenging work. The job description practically demands that.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-reportedly-terrifi...

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#267

Post by josefx »

ctdonath wrote: post #156
krm01 wrote: post #140

It still strikes me why so many people are still against a future with self driving cars. Sure, people throughout history are scared of change & new tech. But if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. The reality of driving (as a human) is that most of it…

When the alleged dangers are scary/obvious, and the benefits hard to comprehend, easy to oppose. I remember when credit cards, caller ID, online shopping, tax software, etc were all new. Each was loudly denounced as evil for various reasons; eventually the benefits became so obvious that we all now use those techs with little concern - even though many/most of the concerns were warranted. Just became too convenient t…

> I remember when credit cards

I have one because I need it for online booking, my first one was revoked because I apparently cost them more by not using it enough. I practically don't see a significant benefit, most places accept other forms of payment.

> caller ID

faked and missing all the time.

> subject to a machine built of (per A.C.Clarke) pure magic.

As a software dev. I really would feel much safer with pure magic. I will buy your self driving car the moment Linux went a year without new significant bugs or exploits. Not even bug free, just no significant bugs. I do not trust the industry in its current state to produce a complex piece of software that can reliably control a car in an even more complex and constantly changing environment.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#268

Post by xkjkls »

FireBeyond wrote: post #99
anchpop wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now? It was, but software often goes over-schedule, especially in a brand new field.

The prudent thing to do there, would be to exercise prudence. Not announce to investors and the public ever more grandiose targets after each miss. As it is we're on about Autonomous Driving Promise Mk IV from Musk, "fully autonomous, coast to coast, by the end of 2020". (That's after 2018 was missed. Which was after 2016 was missed.)

Especially not when they are literally accepting money for the feature, which they have consistently estimated wrong timelines on.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#269

Post by rdm_blackhole »

cultus wrote: post #188
daniel_iversen wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t there already a mounting amount of statistics of accidents of self driving cars vs manual ones and the difference is night and day that the self driving ones are statistically safer?

Not at all. Self-driving cars cannot yet safely navigate complex or unusual scenarios. The human backups in test cars still have to take over with good regularity. That's not something you'd see if it were anywhere close to ready. Even with all their data, there aren't enough training examples of every situation. Deep learning models also have a tendency to be pathologically wrong in rare but completely unpredictable…

Point taken. However if you a look at statistics regarding the leading cause of accidents in the US, for example by going to https://www.after-car-accidents.com/car-accident-causes.html

It seems that most accidents are caused by human error and humans being distracted or under the influence of a substance.

Weather and complex situations would only rank at the bottom of the list and therefore could be considered a YAGNI problem.

If you remove the human element from the driving, already the top 4 causes of accidents on the road would be reduced drastically.

So at the moment a self driving car may not be able to handle some of the most extreme situations that a human driver could handle however, I would challenge that assumption and simply ask: does it have to?

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#270

Post by tmh88j »

andrepd wrote: post #260
krm01 wrote: post #140

It still strikes me why so many people are still against a future with self driving cars. Sure, people throughout history are scared of change & new tech. But if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. The reality of driving (as a human) is that most of it…

Lol. This is the kind of comment that I don't expect to see in hackernews, but then again it's about Tesla, so all reasonableness goes out the window. > if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. Such a handwavy argument is worth exactly squat. What does t…

> You see a handful of lines and text across the screen and it's sufficient to make you go ":o"? Enough to conclude it must be better than a brain?

I think he's referring to selective attention. Can't comment on the validity of this "study", but I recall it catching me off guard the first time I saw it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo

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