Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#261

Post by fma » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 6:02 AM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #179

40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

GM? Bolt is a great car and GM has enormous production capability. Well aware of the difference in sales figures, but having driven both, I prefer it to the Model S. I think battery tech will end up deciding the market, though, and GM would have to pivot harder that I think they are able to in order to beat Tesla. I am very curious about their internal R&D pipeline for the Maxwell technology.

Agrees. GM is building a battery factory

https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/5/20996866/gm-lg-ev-electri...

And recently an ounced a $2.2 billion investment to turn a plant into one that will produce only electric vehicle

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2020/0...

GM has the EV knowledge from Bolt and Volt. It has autonomous tech from Cruise Automation.

GM is planning 20 all electric vehicle models by 2023.

IMHO they would be the clear leader in the pack of traditional manufacturers.

I also don't think anyone needs to beat anyone. Everyone will have their market share sooner or later as the tech becomes a commodity. I just want my self driving EV cheaply, and reliability. I've never owned a GM vehicle but I'm an keeping an eye on what they come out with.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#262

Post by xkjkls » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 6:10 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #257

xkjkls wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much of their revenue comes from not making cars?

Good point. Right now it's not much, but I think the valuation is based on the speculation that it could soon be a lot. Right now revenue from energy storage resembles Tesla's auto business in 2013[1].. so if it grows at the same rate... [1] https://twitter.com/kerooke/status/1222637828741439488

Their solar business, which they purchased, has declined every year since the acquisition

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#263

Post by tonyedgecombe » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 6:24 AM UTC

40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

I still think the other manufacturers aren't going to stay behind forever. VW in particular seem to be betting the company on their MEB platform.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#264

Post by andy_ppp » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 6:26 AM UTC

aguyfromnb wrote: post #15

andy_ppp wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scaling is costly?

Can you explain how that affects revenue?

Did revenue go down???

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#265

Post by xkjkls » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 6:32 AM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #255

xkjkls wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No? Plenty of people buy stocks based on the financial performance of the company, and given that the majority of capital invested in stocks are large institutional investors, the vast majority of money invested in stocks are from people who care about financial performance

and plenty of people but stocks on their horoscope

Not a meaningful amount of capital though.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#266

Post by mrtksn » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 6:34 AM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #265

mrtksn wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and plenty of people but stocks on their horoscope

Not a meaningful amount of capital though.

The idea here is that stock prices are determined by the people who want to pay for that stock. It's not a function of the company's operational success.

What you are saying is circular reasoning, you essentially say that company performance matter because many people think that is should matter. There's no causality relationship here, essentially people think that matters because other people thing that matters.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#267

Post by sunstone » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 7:08 AM UTC

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #162

40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

Other car manufacturers are missing what makes Tesla do so well. It's a lot of things, really. Range, performance, the hope of self-driving, the supercharging network (Which is much bigger than people think!), and of course, the fact that they look like normal cars. Most other EVs like the Leaf are either incredibly lacking in range and performance, or they're incredibly ugly like the BMW i3. Then you've got cars lik…

For example, what Mercedes is missing for the EQC electric SUV production is, enough batteries for full production. I wonder how many other makers are looking at this particular bottle neck?

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#268

Post by sunstone » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 7:15 AM UTC

nexuist wrote: post #258

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other car manufacturers are missing what makes Tesla do so well. It's a lot of things, really. Range, performance, the hope of self-driving, the supercharging network (Which is much bigger than people think!), and of course, the fact that they look like normal cars. Most other EVs like the Leaf are either incredibly lacking in range and performance, or they're incredibly ugly like the BMW i3. Then you've got cars lik…

>the fact that they look like normal cars This was my first thought during the Cybertruck unveil. It no longer looks like a normal truck. Rivian was far out originally, but this blew it out the park. So the question is really, would people want an electric pickup truck that looks like nothing before it? I'm leaning towards yes, but we have to wait for the market to make its choice to find out for sure.

I don't love the look of the Cybertruck but what I do love is the value per dollar and the larger than expected cab space.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#269

Post by qqqwerty » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 7:19 AM UTC

pedrocr wrote: post #167

torpfactory wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on the definition of highway speeds a bit. At 60mph I hit the rated range pretty much dead on (500km/310mi). At 75mph it’s probably between 350 and 400km. Generally agree about the charging infrastructure. Personally I have fun trying to find where I can connect to the grid but I don’t think everyone would call that fun... Round numbers: I think when there are ~2-3x the number of supercharger locations (not c…

Sure, given the context being in kilometers instead of miles I was using the ~130km/h that is common in a lot of European highways. From experience that gets you less than 350, particularly in winter. Some places (and drivers) are quite a bit faster still. US highways have fairly low speed limits and so range is less of an issue. True parity with gas will take a much longer time. My previous diesel car had almost 4 t…

As a counter point, my current gas powered car only gets about 240mi/385km in range. And my car before that was 300mi/480km. So compared to that a 300mi range is perfectly adequate.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#270

Post by philwelch » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 7:47 AM UTC

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #162

40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

Other car manufacturers are missing what makes Tesla do so well. It's a lot of things, really. Range, performance, the hope of self-driving, the supercharging network (Which is much bigger than people think!), and of course, the fact that they look like normal cars. Most other EVs like the Leaf are either incredibly lacking in range and performance, or they're incredibly ugly like the BMW i3. Then you've got cars lik…

> Range, performance, the hope of self-driving, the supercharging network (Which is much bigger than people think!), and of course, the fact that they look like normal cars.

The self-driving bit is a risk either way, but I think Tesla is dangerously close to losing out on both the “looking like a normal car” and potentially the performance factor if they’re serious about Cybertruck.