Calling it now, S&P500 up 20% by year end.
U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
261–270 of 276 posts
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
While I'm pretty frugal myself I do splurge on cars; currently own the Model 3. The reason being is that safety technology is always improving. So driving an '00 Civic with 220k will save you some cheddar it may cost you a severe injury or worse.
I'm not saying I don't want one (I rented a P100D on vacation and it was fantastic). Its just not the right decision for me to use as a commuter car despite how much my heart wants one, and I have to actively supress my desire to purchase one, but it does make me feel more fiscally responsible not to buy it. I also probably don't value safety as much as you. I have a twin turbo 300zx track car which I'll never sell a…
Moderation in everything :)
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#263I have a feeling we're entering a job bubble, and possibly a recession... if it hits by November, I'm betting there will be another blue wave. Actually, that might happen regardless, but the blame will likely fall on the President, it usually does. Digital Ocean just announced layoffs, so it's possible a lot more might follow. I think a lot of VC bets like magic leap, and WeWork and Uber might go sour and hurt investments going into the 2020's.
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#264I have a feeling we're entering a job bubble, and possibly a recession... if it hits by November, I'm betting there will be another blue wave. Actually, that might happen regardless, but the blame will likely fall on the President, it usually does. Digital Ocean just announced layoffs, so it's possible a lot more might follow. I think a lot of VC bets like magic leap, and WeWork and Uber might go sour and hurt invest…
I’ll take that bet. I think the market will surge upward 20% by year end because of a Trump re-election then level off over the next 3 years as the blue wave rises and drowns out the embers.
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#265I have a feeling we're entering a job bubble, and possibly a recession... if it hits by November, I'm betting there will be another blue wave. Actually, that might happen regardless, but the blame will likely fall on the President, it usually does. Digital Ocean just announced layoffs, so it's possible a lot more might follow. I think a lot of VC bets like magic leap, and WeWork and Uber might go sour and hurt invest…
I’ll take that bet. I think the market will surge upward 20% by year end because of a Trump re-election then level off over the next 3 years as the blue wave rises and drowns out the embers.
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here's a little more sober analysis: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/01/bls-job-openings-... By someone who has been following the jolts numbers for years.
Calculated Risk has been "sky is falling" for many years. Someone taking their advice over the last 12 years would be much worse off than doing the opposite of what they encourage.
You must be thinking of a different blog. For the past decade, Bill has steadfastly maintained that we're not headed into a recession any time soon.
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
Calculated Risk has been "sky is falling" for many years. Someone taking their advice over the last 12 years would be much worse off than doing the opposite of what they encourage.
You must be thinking of a different blog. For the past decade, Bill has steadfastly maintained that we're not headed into a recession any time soon.
[deleted]
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#268Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Tell me when we pass the TPP. Oh wait, we messed up and now that ship has sailed without us. The TPP had serious flaws and I am glad it was never passed. It was far too secretive, with the most powerful existing interests dictating policy and regular citizens being completely cut of of even viewing what was in the actual agreement for far too long, until the thing was nearly finished. It was horrible for privacy and…
> The TPP had serious flaws and I am glad it was never passed. It was far too secretive, with the most powerful existing interests dictating policy and regular citizens being completely cut of of even viewing what was in the actual agreement for far too long, until the thing was nearly finished. You mean like almost every treaty ever negotiated pretty much as far back as we have recorded history? A treaty negotiation…
The secret part isn't the biggest issue - it's the fact that there were certain groups allowed to shape policy (like large IP holders) while others (like citizens) were not well represented. It thus led to a very one-sided set of rules.
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wow... That's an interesting assertion and frankly, crazy. Care to explain? Fundamentally there is no difference is the debt at .01% or 15%, if one cannot make the payment, they are in trouble. If the holder of the debt cannot collect, they're in trouble.
The Unites States will always pay the coupon. QE4 is currently supporting our record issuance in the repo market - you know, the support that was supposed to be unwound by now, but has in fact grown in position since the beginning of the year. We will monetize our debt forever, just like Japan, until there are currency consequences. The MMT people argue there will never be said currency consequences. We shall see.
The currency consequences come in the form of inflation. So it's already happened. But if you mean real, paradigm altering consequences like what's happened to places like Zimbabwe or even Argentina, no, it'll never happen as long as demand for their products (and currencies) remains high.
Re: U.S. job openings post biggest drop in more than four years
#270I have a feeling we're entering a job bubble, and possibly a recession... if it hits by November, I'm betting there will be another blue wave. Actually, that might happen regardless, but the blame will likely fall on the President, it usually does. Digital Ocean just announced layoffs, so it's possible a lot more might follow. I think a lot of VC bets like magic leap, and WeWork and Uber might go sour and hurt invest…
I think extrapolating the entire tech or startup economy off an extremely small company in a commodity area of computing is not a good decision.