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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#261

Post by cmrdporcupine »

appleiigs wrote: post #228
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

As per this article[0], "The eastern provinces rely on an oil supply that's imported from Saudi Arabia, Africa and Venezuela." Canada, an oil rich country, imports oil from Saudi Arabia... how does that make sense. It would be better for Canada and the environment if a pipe is built. First, Canadian environmental standards vs. Saudi, Africa, Venezuela. Second, less tankers burning diesel and oil tanker accidents. Thi…

You posted an extremely out of date article.

This is actually incorrect since the reversal of Line 9, 90% of Ontario's oil consumption comes from Alberta. 44% of Quebec's comes from Alberta, with the remainder being other North American sources from the U.S.

Here's my source: https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/11/13/news/guess-where...

Suncor's refinery in Quebec now processes 25k barrels of Alberta bitumen a day.

There's links in the article to primary sources, including industry documents.

I know many Albertans think we're burning Saudi oil here, but we're not. Strangely enough, Kenney doesn't seem to advertise this fact, and keeps going on about oil tankers going up the St Lawrence.

P.S. I'm born and raised in Alberta. Moved to Ontario in my 20s. Line 9 runs 2km north of my house.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#262

Post by xyzzyz »

cesarb wrote: post #156
lightedman wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That is, the CO2 emissions from ethanol are not a problem because they are matched by an identical amount of CO2 capture." You're missing every other machine using non-ethanol fuel to operate which is required for harvesting/producing ethanol biofuel. Ethanol's net CO2 output is positive, not negative. That is not good.

Setting aside that these are not the CO2 emissions from "burning ethanol", do any of these "machines required for harvesting/producing ethanol" require a "non-ethanol fuel", or do they use that fuel for now just because it's convenient, and could be easily replaced by other sources? I know that the power for the refining plants is produced by burning the remainder of the sugar cane plant (which produces so much power…

Tractors and trucks currently use diesel, but you could convert them to ethanol if required. Most likely existing ones would just be gradually phased out, and new machines would just run on ethanol.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#263

Post by NickM »

dfsegoat wrote: post #239
mxschumacher wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard that consumers perceive SUVs as safer

Consumer Reports seems to back this up, but they cite an added rollover risk: > "In car vs. SUV head-on crashes, the study found that the odds of death were 7.6 times higher for the car driver than the SUV driver. In crashes where the car had a better front crash-test rating than the SUV did, the car's driver fared a bit better but was still four and a half times more likely to die than the SUV driver. " > "Choosing…

I would say CR doesn't back up the "SUVs are safer" argument; they say SUVs are safer in head-on collisions with smaller vehicles, but don't really indicate whether they're more or less safe overall.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#264

Post by cmrdporcupine »

johnrgrace wrote: post #240
appleiigs wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As per this article[0], "The eastern provinces rely on an oil supply that's imported from Saudi Arabia, Africa and Venezuela." Canada, an oil rich country, imports oil from Saudi Arabia... how does that make sense. It would be better for Canada and the environment if a pipe is built. First, Canadian environmental standards vs. Saudi, Africa, Venezuela. Second, less tankers burning diesel and oil tanker accidents. Thi…

Logistics and refinery technology. It can be easier to move a cargo of crude via ocean than build a pipeline. And refineries are not all identical, western canada has tar sands that produce very heavy oil which require a much more complex refinery with more capital expense, the existing refineries in eastern canada have lower complexity refineries that are well suited to refining Saudi Arabian oil.

Actually incorrect. Bitumen from Alberta shipped through Line 9 is now refined in Ontario and Quebec and is now the majority of oil consumption in central Canada. The poster above posted an out of date article and then drew incorrect conclusions from obsolete information.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#265

Post by nickik »

perfunctory wrote: post #115
nickik wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My solution would simply be to massively focus on nuclear. Replace all existing coal plants with nuclear plants and plug them into the network. Once you have mass production of nuclear power plants, you can start using nuclear power to create liquid alcohol fuels. Start a process of changing cars to electric or alcohol based fuels, the same goes for ships and eventually planes. The process of switching to alcohol bas…

Let's suppose this is a good plan. But it's still just a plan. How do we actually realize it? We both know voting alone won't cut it.

No clue. Some leader or party making it their program. Very trick in democracies specially today with people having been so indoctrinated into so many of the old environmentalist ideas that are counter-productive. Meaning things like Anti-Nuclear, Anti-GMO and so on.

Usually this wouldn't happen because of climate change. France pushed nuclear because they wanted to be independent of Saudi princes.

But the French example clearly shows that a industrial country can go away from fossil fuel electricity in 15 years if its actually determined to do so and using nuclear energy. And they did it with 1960s technology, the same kind of effort with modern types of nuclear plants, could potentially be even faster.

There is no question in my mind if there was political consensuses on a plan, any industrial nation could move away from 90% of fossil fuels usage within 20 years and it wouldn't actually cost as much as people tend to think.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#266

Post by odiroot »

mxschumacher wrote: post #233
odiroot wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SUV/pick-up boom Not sure why but I see the same here, in Berlin. There is even a meme circling about SUVs being just mothers (usually talking on a phone) driving their kids to school.

I've heard that consumers perceive SUVs as safer

*For the people inside the SUV.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#267

Post by privateSFacct »

0xffff2 wrote: post #202
Cshelton wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

>The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countries like China (already happening), India (already happening), and others. Autonomous ride networks, especially in dense urban areas, will also take a massive market shar…

And ignores the move away from nuclear. Europe alone is shutting down lots of nuclear. Since they are not going to do coal natural gas is very likely to be needed.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#268

Post by wonderwonder »

odiroot wrote: post #226
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

> SUV/pick-up boom Not sure why but I see the same here, in Berlin. There is even a meme circling about SUVs being just mothers (usually talking on a phone) driving their kids to school.

Probably a true meme, I drive an SUV just because it is worlds easier to get young kids in and out of car seats in a higher suv. Had a rental car the other day and it was just unpleasant, constantly hitting my head on the interior ceiling etc.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#269

Post by privateSFacct »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #131
rossdavidh wrote: post #97

So, interesting and all, but not even mentioning what is happening to coal the last few years seems like an odd omission. Coal is essentially disappearing from the world's energy mix. As big as coal was, it takes a while to go away completely, but the trend does not seem to be slowing down. By some estimates, there are a lot of cases now where it is more expensive to keep running an existing coal-fired power plant, t…

Coal is down-trending in the USA, but it still makes up 30% of the electricity in the USA. In other countries, especially China and India, coal is expected to be burned in massive quantities for the next couple of decades. Granted, they use much more efficient coal than the US does, but let's not act like coal is disappearing overnight. It's been over 30% of the mix for decades and it will continue to be so, in a glo…

Look at South Africa - NO CHANCE of coal going away.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#270

Post by NickM »

npo9 wrote: post #245
Cshelton wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

The is delusional optimism. All signs point to increasing amounts of pollution. There is no existing plan that will fix the solution that is being executed. All environmental or alternative efforts being pursued are falling short. There is no indication ‘green’ energy will be a significant portion of the world energy supply. There is no indication we are removing our dependency on oil. We are continuing to consume co…

Every problem exists until it doesn't. Saying that a problem has not yet been solved and therefore cannot be solved is a fallacy.

It's not a question of whether the human race can solve this problem, it's a question of whether we will solve it. There are no fundamental physical or technological limitations that prevent us from running the world on 100% clean energy, it's just a matter of overcoming our species' collective political apathy on this issue...and the kind of blind pessimism you're expressing tends to lead to more apathy, not progress.

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