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Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

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Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it laughable that you completely disregarded USA as one of the other "aggressive, belligerent" countries out there...

Actually this is debatable. The USA has the first military power in the whole world and could go and invade a bunch of countries if they wanted to and nobody would oppose them. Since they are not doing so, its hard to call them belligerent. The British Empire was way worse than the USA all things considered.

Well they've done it, remember when they took half Mexico?

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point, but counterpoint is: assets. Gold. Credit. Mines. Water, forests. Strategic positions. E.g. I wouldn't be surprised if China has considered invading Mongolia, potentially worth trillions of US$ in minerals alone.

China hasn't invaded a country in 50 years and hasn't put an offensive military anywhere in decades. They very much keep to themselves as far as large economies go. Find the amount of yellow peril in this thread amusing. I guess no one really worries about the numerous invasions by US/UK/Allies

For most of that time China was not a "large economy".

That said, your "50 years" number is conveniently eliding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War which was closer to 40 years ago. Just because China failed to invade successfully doesn't change the fact that it invaded.

As for China's future actions, we'll see what they are. So far, the territorial claims they are making are not looking like they will lead to peace in the future.

For the rest, the people not worrying about invasions by US/UK/Allies live in those countries, I expect.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I'd add that it need only be a solution to the person who can start the war. Authoritarian leaders find fights with external enemies extremely useful to quash dissent. Given the global drift toward authoritarianism and nationalism, and especially given how the world's largest military is in the hands of an authoritarian, I think the risk for war is disturbingly high.

Was Obama an authoritarian? What about Bush? What about Clinton (Bill)? The previous few presidents got the US involved in lots of stupid wars. This president has expressly said he doesn't want to do that and has avoided it.

>has avoided it.

While explicit declarations of war don't exist, airstrikes and threats do.

Trump has accelerated bombing rates over the Obama administration: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/09/donald-trump-is-droppin...

Trump has threatened Iran: https://fox8.com/2018/07/23/trump-tweets-explosive-threat-to...

Trump has threatened North Korea: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-un-north-...

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#265

None of the top comments mention nuclear weapons. Are we really going to fight a huge war with multiple combatants when some of them could kill untold millions in metropolitan areas with a few rockets?

It's possible because a world power doesn't need to completely annihilate another to win. They just need to remove their ability to compete on the global stage.

The supply chain of American (and most modern countries) isn't fortified against any sort of large-scale attack. It wouldn't take much to know out food, fuel, and power supplies for most Americans. Once that happens, a little bit of propaganda will incite major riots which require police intervention.

There are enough "militias" in the country waiting patiently for their time to rise up. Should they decide to "protect" themselves from the "looters," the country's leadership will probably have to redirect their attention an resources homeward in order to stabilize their power.

That alone is enough to set the country back several decades. Especially if the educated class seeks refuge in a more stable, foreign country. Like what happened in central Europe after WWII.

The future of warfare is against world powers is probably a long-term sequence of small scale attacks of this nature. Disrupt supplies, push propaganda, and create power vacuums which need to be filled.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because politics and circumstance.

Which implies that they do not care about "dictatorships".

I think that there are strong tendencies and actions towards democracies where convienent and possible.

Unfortunately the world is a messy place — ideological purity gets you no where.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#268
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if cybersecurity could be counted as a 5th area, and if so, how far behind the US is.

Thats a great point, and quite possibly how the next war would be fought. I picture some Fight Club esque scenario where all the banks get wiped out. Not from bombs, more from a cyber point of view, but could you imagine the loss of faith even a smallish attack could cause. FUD is a heavy hitter in wars.

I highly recommend the novels Daemon and Freedom by Daniel Suarez, where he shows highly plausible attacks on our digital infrastructure.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#269
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if cybersecurity could be counted as a 5th area, and if so, how far behind the US is.

The answer to the last part is "the US is probably in the lead or at least competitive to the lead." Keep in mind that Stuxnet is generally figured to be a joint American/Israeli cyberweapon.

The common use of SSNs, the continued existence of Credit Card numbers, and the Equifax hack make me gravely concerned that the Federal Government is not helping us harden our cyber defense.
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