The world is losing the war against climate change • Hacker News Board

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#261

Post by rsync » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 5:59 PM UTC

rosser wrote: post #148

rsync wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"For an energy realist, I recommend checking out Vaclav Smil, who has long been predicting 21st century as the century of natural gas" My very recent reading on this topic has lead me to believe that while burning natural gas is quite an improvement in carbon emissions vs. burning coal or oil, unburned natural gas traps quite a bit more heat than carbon dioxide does. It was even suggested that pipeline leaks, manufac…

"Natural Gas" is primarily methane. In terms of Greenhouse effects, we would do vastly better to "burn off" any leaks than let them leak.

Yes, that's the point of the commentary that I read - there are unintentional leaks in the production, transport and use of natural gas that are much larger than one might assume.

Pipelines, for instance, are quite "leaky".

These leaks are unintentional and difficult to find/monitor, so they are not burned off ...

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#262

Post by charlchi » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 5:59 PM UTC

Sir_Cmpwn wrote: post #140

okket wrote: post #6

I don't know if the "war against" theme fits here. There is no enemy but ourselves.

I dunno, painting oil execs as subversive national security threats and investing military-level economic resources into fighting a "war" on climate change just might work...

Where do I sign up?

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#263

Post by vosper » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:02 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #241

marcosdumay wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can make a photovoltaic panels fab with the money that goes into a nuclear power plant, and complete it faster. The one thing that would probably have the largest impact would be guaranteeing some demand for PV fabs. (As much as I hate governments guaranteeing demand in general.)

>You can make a photovoltaic panels fab with the money that goes into a nuclear power plant, and complete it faster. We already have dirt cheap PV thanks to China. Panels are not the problem. Storage and transmission is. Until ultra-cheap grid-scale batteries are a reality, solar will only ever be viable in certain areas at certain times.

Coupling solar with hydro to recycle some water and allow the dam to operate at a greater capacity even when river or storage levels are low is an interesting idea [0]. Though perhaps only applicable in a few locations (I think the Waitaki power scheme in NZ could be a candidate, one day)

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/24/business/ener...

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#264

Post by jillesvangurp » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:06 PM UTC

PunchTornado wrote: post #7

is there a proof somewhere that these wild fires are linked to climate change? For example the really bad one in Greece happened because someone decided to burn some wood. (I'm convinced that climate change is real and we're responsible)

I think we're past focusing on proof. We need to focus on probabilities and insuring ourselves against possible or likely outcomes.

Reality check, we have a sample size of 1. So, if we get it wrong, it's game over and we mess up our planet for centuries or millennia. The question is how comfortable we are with being utterly wrong on that gamble. For me the answer is, pretty damn uncomfortable.

Even a 1 % gamble on getting this stuff wrong has a pretty significant chance of backfiring on us. Russian roulette has only a slightly worse probability. And to be fair, our odds might actually be considerably better putting the proverbial gun to your head considering what some scientists are saying. Are they 20% right 50% right or 80% right? I don't know. Is the water going to rise 1 m by 2060, by 2100, or later? I don't know. I do know that would be highly annoying for a lot of people and it would be awfully nice to live in a place that has dikes or is well above sea level by then.

I happen to believe it is probably ballpark closer to 95-99% but I'd argue even a 1% chance that they are not completely wrong about this should be more than enough motivation to do something about it on the off chance it is needed.

The number doesn't actually matter that much. What matters is acknowledging it is not 0%. We have a non zero, potentially very large chance that we are actively killing this planet and everything on it in either the next decades or centuries. That's too big of chance to just go "Meh, lets wait and see". As soon as you acknowledge that, opposing any action that mitigates that risk becomes madness.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#265

Post by TheCoelacanth » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:10 PM UTC

atlantic wrote: post #211

rb808 wrote: post #151

The war is unwinnable. Global warming can only be reversed if we stop all Co2 and methane emissions, and then start net carbon capture to reduce current co2 levels. Its just not going to happen. No one ever says that out loud. There is noise about reducing carbon emissions - in reality this is a lot of argument about reducing carbon emissions in wealthy countries. We can't even do that. Meanwhile even my greeny-lefty…

The war is perfectly winnable, but not within the context of a democracy. Here you would need the equivalent of a state of emergency, lasting for perhaps a century, to force the necessary changes upon an unwilling public, who are quite happy to sort trash into three piles, stop using straws, or engage in other such cargo-cult behaviours, but not to give up their iPhones, 2nd cars or annual vacations. Ironically, a co…

A large majority of Americans support adding a revenue-neutral carbon tax, which demonstrates a willingness to reduce consumption as long as it is part of a concerted action and not just an insignificant choice by a single person that will make no noticeable difference to climate change. We need "leaders" to catch up with the general public's views on this matter, not the other way around.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#266

Post by reitanqild » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:11 PM UTC

mnm1 wrote: post #251

rb808 wrote: post #151

The war is unwinnable. Global warming can only be reversed if we stop all Co2 and methane emissions, and then start net carbon capture to reduce current co2 levels. Its just not going to happen. No one ever says that out loud. There is noise about reducing carbon emissions - in reality this is a lot of argument about reducing carbon emissions in wealthy countries. We can't even do that. Meanwhile even my greeny-lefty…

Why would you expect the common person to change their habits when government abs industry aren't changing theirs? It won't make a difference what I do personally. I could fly on a jet nonstop for the rest of my life and it will make little difference. Government could pass a law to reduce carbon output tomorrow and it would make a difference. Why should us regular people be uncomfortable when we're fucked anyway bec…

Well, it certainly would signal something the day these government leaders stop flying private jet planes to climate conferences or even start having video conferences.

That should help. History has a number of examples of how far people will go if their leaders go first.

But as long as leaders say one thing and do something completely different? I say no wonder uneducated people don't buy it.

Note: this is not to be taken as defense for the current behaviour but as a suggestion for how to improve the situation.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#267

Post by sadris » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:12 PM UTC

tmaly wrote: post #132

WhompingWindows wrote: post #12

If you look at global power sector emissions from 1998 to 2018, you'll see that while we have dramatically improved upon the energy intensity (energy/capita) and even are making improvements on carbon intensity (carbon/capita), but the sad reality is this: we are still using around 35% coal power in 2018, the same as we did in 1998. And the power sector is the easiest sector to decarbonize, by the way. If you look at…

Education is what needs to be innovated. We need more kids becoming scientists. Battery and storage technology need to be improved. We should be taking a multi-prong approach to coming up with working nuclear fusion.

> Education is what needs to be innovated. We need more kids becoming scientists.

Some people cannot just "become scientists". Without the intelligence, even an infinite amount of education would be pointless: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62jZENi1ed8

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#268

Post by hodgesrm » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:32 PM UTC

dhimes wrote: post #243

hodgesrm wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you post information about this, especially the math? According to US stats I've seen it requires an acre of growing forest to offset 100 US gallons of gas per year.[0] We have a long commute (which I'm working on cutting) so we need about 8 acres to offset fully. [0] https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calc... Edit: added missing units.

I'm honestly surprised that site's still up.

I was too. Perhaps an editing mistake?

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#269

Post by snowwrestler » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:35 PM UTC

carry_bit wrote: post #247

beamatronic wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it help make this more concrete for people if we were to install markers along the coastlines of various cities that say “The ocean will be touching this sign on $date”

What do you do for the people whose location wouldn't be underwater even if all of the ice melted?

"You will be dealing with refugees from underwater areas of $nearby_area on $date."

This is the under-appreciated risk of climate change: all those people who get displaced are going to want somewhere to move to, and they're not going to want to pay for it (they will argue it's not their fault the ocean took their land).

Meanwhile, all the people who already live in desirable places are not going to want to subsidize vast floods of strangers moving into their neighborhoods.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#270

Post by imtringued » Mon, Aug 06, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

carry_bit wrote: post #247

beamatronic wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it help make this more concrete for people if we were to install markers along the coastlines of various cities that say “The ocean will be touching this sign on $date”

What do you do for the people whose location wouldn't be underwater even if all of the ice melted?

Put a sign that tells you how many refugees will have to move into your area.