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Netflix is now worth more than $100B

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Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#261

Post by scarface74 »

rhino369 wrote: post #104
ioquatix wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that bothers me is how long it takes for content to come to Netflix. For example, in NZ, I still don't have access to season 2 of The Expanse. Remind me again why I'm paying monthly for this service!?

To be fair, you are paying what? 11 dollars? Netflix isn't meant to be "all access to everything." If you wanted access to everything immediately it's going to cost a lot of money. For a while, it was "access to nearly all old TV." a few years ago. But that was when old TV had little value. Nobody was paying for old TV and you couldn't even find it elsewhere. Now, Netflix has made old TV valuable and has made new TV…

First run hasn't been enough for years before Netflix. Most shows lose money during their original run and made it back via syndication. Most shows on TV are sold by the production companies at a loss or the production company and network or owned by the same parent company.

That's part of the reason that people are asking what will happen to the Fox Network after Disney buys the rest of Fox. That also explains why relatively low rated scripted shows can survive on the CW - Warner owns half of CW and all of DC.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#262

Post by scarface74 »

yorby wrote: post #171
bluthru wrote: post #169

Netflix is going to tank if Disney makes their stuff (including Fox) exclusive to hulu or a new service.

Disney is pulling/will pull out a lot of stuff from Netflix[1] and will also start its own streaming service[2]... and Netflix' catalog had already shrunk a lot before that news[3]. 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/disney-will-pull-its-movies-... 2. https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/tv/disney-start-own-stre... 3. http://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-catalog-size-shrinks-...

Not all of their stuff. The Marvel originals will stay with Netflix.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#263

Post by scarface74 »

nimos wrote: post #16

Surprised Netflix hasn't branched out into more content types or more dynamic content. You now have this two way communication channel seems kind of boring to not try and use it even just for mostly video content. Some of their shows run 7+ million an episode. If you look at the development costs of simple mobile games and cut out all the stuff related to IAP it seems like they could create a lot of value for custome…

Good content is evergreen and the more content they create, they increase the incentive fgor people to subscribe. You can also create content once and automate creating compatible devices for everything. Games come and go, but House of Cards Season 1 is still a reason to subscribe to Netflix today. Think how many people are still discovering The Wire for the first time on HBO Now.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#265

Post by edpichler »

nerfhammer wrote: post #174
edpichler wrote: post #107

I study stock market for more than a decade, for long term, and I perfectly now that company data should not be analysed in a isolatedly, but, any stock with P/E ratio 230.24 you need to be very careful, and put just the money you can afford to lose without disturb your sleep. For whom that does not understand company ratios, a P/E ratio 230.24 is meaning that you need 230 years of profits to return to you the price…

This view ignores revenue growth. If the company is growing like a weed it may choose to reinvest everything and keep profit near zero. If there's no dividend the profit would just go into a war chest and collect some minimal interest rate. If the company thinks it can get a better return on investment by spending all income on growing itself it has every reason to do so, and all it has to do is beat that minimal int…

Yes, you are perfectly right! I confess I forgot about this point of the earnings. USA tax system is different of my country.

Here, companies pay taxes about all the income, and on USA you have deductions when reinvest income in some kind of expenses. I believe this is why some companies spend it almost all, because the rules of the game are favoring to to this.

So, the P/E ratio is almost irrelevant (or more complex to include on analysis) on USA than here.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#266

Post by nicky0 »

anilshanbhag wrote: post #19

The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are…

Do stocks really trade based on DCF? That sounds like a fiction taught in schools. I thought in the real world they traded based on whatever the hell criteria the people trading them felt like.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#267

Post by simula67 »

crdoconnor wrote: post #257
philipov wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main problem with regulation is that it's too easy to capture by various corporate lobbies. Propose a good plan, and see it get shredded and repurposed to serve those it's supposed to regulate. Congress is cheep, and campaign committees wield the purse strings to keep their members in check on policy issues, so the election system doesn't respond efficiently to abuses. We won't be able to get good regulation unti…

>The main problem with regulation is that it's too easy to capture by various corporate lobbies. This is like saying "the main problem with laws is..." In fact, this false dichotomy between "more regulation" and "less regulation" is mainly an artefact of corporate lobby groups (plenty of examples in their propaganda of this). It dumbs down the issue to a childlike level and lets them play two political blocs who migh…

>>The main problem with regulation is that it's too easy to capture by various corporate lobbies.

> This is like saying "the main problem with laws is..."

Is it ? A corporation that already pays employees higher than minimum wage can drive out smaller shops that do not pay much more than minimum wage by working to raise the minimum wage. This enables them to raise prices and screw customers over if the smaller shops go out of business.

'Murder laws help murders by allowing them to capture murder laws'

Does not quite seem to work

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#268

Post by relix »

nicky0 wrote: post #266
anilshanbhag wrote: post #19

The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are…

Do stocks really trade based on DCF? That sounds like a fiction taught in schools. I thought in the real world they traded based on whatever the hell criteria the people trading them felt like.

They definitely don't trade based on DCF, and just one look at the stock market confirms this. DCF is just one method to put a valuation on a company. There are plenty other ways. The parameters chosen allow enough freedom to basically come up with any valuation you want anyway, so there's definitely no one "correct valuation" even if restricted to DCF.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#269

Post by crdoconnor »

simula67 wrote: post #267
crdoconnor wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The main problem with regulation is that it's too easy to capture by various corporate lobbies. This is like saying "the main problem with laws is..." In fact, this false dichotomy between "more regulation" and "less regulation" is mainly an artefact of corporate lobby groups (plenty of examples in their propaganda of this). It dumbs down the issue to a childlike level and lets them play two political blocs who migh…

>>The main problem with regulation is that it's too easy to capture by various corporate lobbies. > This is like saying "the main problem with laws is..." Is it ? A corporation that already pays employees higher than minimum wage can drive out smaller shops that do not pay much more than minimum wage by working to raise the minimum wage. This enables them to raise prices and screw customers over if the smaller shops…

>Is it ? A corporation that already pays employees higher than minimum wage can drive out smaller shops that do not pay much more than minimum wage by working to raise the minimum wage.

If you're talking about, say, Walmart, they lobby very hard against minimum wage raises and even go as far as to threaten what appears to be self destructive behavior to prevent it from occurring (e.g. threats to close profitable stores).

Minimum wage goes up -> Walmart profits go down. It's that simple. (see minimum wage across state borders by Dube, Lester & Reich).

They drive out smaller shops by using their buying power to beat suppliers down on price, using their size to get sweetheart land deals and sweetheart tax deals with local officials desperate to bring jobs to the area.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#270

Post by kingkongjaffa »

eldavido wrote: post #42
anilshanbhag wrote: post #19

The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are…

A lot of sophisticated financial people share your thinking. The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. People are cheering for 3% GDP growth in the US. Interest rates are at all-time historical lows, meaning discount rates are lower than they've ever been. These macro trends have added up to an environment where people are willing to pay staggering premiums for even a remote shot at growth. It's affectin…

Forgive my ignorance but how does the stock market as a whole keep growing if the GDP isn't growing at a similar rate? where is all the attributed value coming from?

Or am I thinking about it the wrong way ?

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