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SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

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Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#261

Post by greedo »

netfire wrote: post #221
ajmurmann wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they miss 2022 the next window at 2024 is still incredible. Who would have seriously believed we'd fly something of that size to Mars by that time and have a manned mission two years later?!

Question: Why do the autonomous cargo missions need to be done in the ideal launch window? It doesn't seem like the systems required to operate and navigate in space should require much energy, once your are up to cruising speed (and there's no air resistance in space to slow you down). Does it matter if the cargo takes 6 months to deliver the cargo instead of 3? Am I missing something?

It saves you fuel. More space spent on fuel reduces your payload, driving costs up.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#262

Post by greedo »

rtpg wrote: post #235
simonh wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why this argument gets made particularly concerning space exploration. Somehow it’s ok for humans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars per year on each one of entertaining movies, going on holidays, playing computer games, sports events, etc but a few tens of billions of dollars spent on space will imperil the long term survival of the human species and leave millions of people starving in Afri…

Places people don't want to live in: - a submarine - the middle of Death Valley - the middle of Antarctica - the (completely lifeless) top of mount Fuji Living in a Mars colony would be a combination of all these experiences. If you somehow have the magic sauce to make Mars enjoyable, you could offer this experience in the middle of the desert as well. You could tackle real habitation problems on this planet. Just bu…

I think you underestimate how quickly Mars could become an industrial powerhouse. It won't be starting at a Mayflower level of technology.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#263

Post by DesiLurker »

AmIFirstToThink wrote: post #255

I think humanity is not ready to be multi-planetary. Time or distances or conditions are not on humanity's side. Even humanity is not on humanity's side. I think the dreams of being multi-planetary are similar to buying doomsday bunkers in New Zealand. I see it as a desire to escape the problems of earth. I would ask a question to Anjum Choudhary, "If there is a colony on Mars, and your ideology got hold of major cou…

I think this is perfect time for humanity to start efforts in that direction. IMO international gridlock may work out to our advantage. what I am afraid is having a single global superpower (likely china) emerge and control the fate of humanity with an iron fist. BTW for next few decades the dream of being fully self sufficient mars colony is just that, a dream. Any billionaire would have to be out of their mind to leave perfectly good 'empire' on earth to live life of a commoner on mars/colony.

Secondly, I know I am speculating but IMO the reason Elon want to do this now may have something to do with emergence of singularity. I think he wants to have backup BEFORE we create artificial superintelligence which by median of estimates of AI researcher is to be believed around 2045.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#264

Post by losteric »

Diederich wrote: post #21
Osmium wrote: post #11

Honestly, Elon's presentations are some of the most impressive, inspiring I've ever seen. And the way he just stumbles out words and sentences that are completely revolutionary... casually dropping these absurd, incredible statements. I find it incredible. If anyone else was saying this, was showing these graphics, you'd think it was just wish fulfillment; a fantasy. And I'm sure their timeline is a bit aggressive. B…

"You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars. "

We need people like this running for office.

Not Elon specifically, politics would only get in his way, but inspiring yet pragmatic visionaries... willing to make mistakes, challenge common beliefs, and build the future.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#265

Post by AmIFirstToThink »

DesiLurker wrote: post #263
AmIFirstToThink wrote: post #255

I think humanity is not ready to be multi-planetary. Time or distances or conditions are not on humanity's side. Even humanity is not on humanity's side. I think the dreams of being multi-planetary are similar to buying doomsday bunkers in New Zealand. I see it as a desire to escape the problems of earth. I would ask a question to Anjum Choudhary, "If there is a colony on Mars, and your ideology got hold of major cou…

I think this is perfect time for humanity to start efforts in that direction. IMO international gridlock may work out to our advantage. what I am afraid is having a single global superpower (likely china) emerge and control the fate of humanity with an iron fist. BTW for next few decades the dream of being fully self sufficient mars colony is just that, a dream. Any billionaire would have to be out of their mind to l…

And you just hope that they AI that's sustaining the human life on Mars, doesn't like the AI taking over the earth.

I think having a backup of humanity would make world leaders to be more dangerous with their decision making, destroying earth in the process. Why, they have backup of humanity in outer space.

And after disaster on earth, they try to restore the backup and realize that restore is not going to work. Any DBA will tell you stories of failing restore and the dread that sets in when that happens, it does happen.

My worst fear is that in space we would realize that humans need a certain bacteria in our stomach to develop brain or to just be humans, and our last colony-wide anti-viral shot killed those bacteria's, and that bacteria only is found in cow's milk, cows that eat grass on earth. And then that's it, end of story.

I think the physics of space exploration can be worked out, biology is not going to be.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#266

Post by AmIFirstToThink »

greedo wrote: post #256
AmIFirstToThink wrote: post #255

I think humanity is not ready to be multi-planetary. Time or distances or conditions are not on humanity's side. Even humanity is not on humanity's side. I think the dreams of being multi-planetary are similar to buying doomsday bunkers in New Zealand. I see it as a desire to escape the problems of earth. I would ask a question to Anjum Choudhary, "If there is a colony on Mars, and your ideology got hold of major cou…

Umm, interesting take. There are some good sci-fi series that explore the idea of religious groups expanding via space colonies. Heck, even the KSR Mars series discusses this. Living in fear of Islam (or LDS, or Branch Davidians) is a foolish way to evaluate a scientific/societal exploration project.

It would be foolish to think humans would be different because they happen to be in space.

Yeah, the first ones to look at earth from outer space had an mind altering experience. I am sure the few who flew in first airplanes had similar story to tell, but now we complain about service while flying.

We would just get used to being in space, and keep doing what we do best, be humans and have conflict.

I want earth treated right, people on earth treated right, space escape will only bring out worst from people.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#267

Post by audeyisaacs »

hyperpallium wrote: post #237
audeyisaacs wrote: post #29

Musk's speaking is always a little awkward (in an endearing way), but did he seem significantly more nervous/emotionally affected than usual in the first part of this speech? It seemed that way to me, curious if anyone else interpreted it like that. He calms down when he starts talking about risk and it being the anniversary of a launch. edit: Good and fun presentation regardless! edit2: Thoughts: - Maybe he feels in…

I don't think it was the primary factor, but he did have to fly to Australia later that day to give a (battery) presentation. Which is a very different time-zone. A big day, even for Musk.

IAC was in Adelaide (Australia) this year, but I guess he did have to fly in for that.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#268

Post by elihu »

ygra wrote: post #248
muxator wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by "40% vehicular failure rate"? Could you please give some insights / sources?

Out of five vehicles built, two have been lost. I think you can find sources on those two incidents easily enough.

According to wikipedia, there were 135 shuttle missions. So, a 1.481% failure rate in case anyone was wondering.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#269

Post by rtpg »

greedo wrote: post #262
rtpg wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Places people don't want to live in: - a submarine - the middle of Death Valley - the middle of Antarctica - the (completely lifeless) top of mount Fuji Living in a Mars colony would be a combination of all these experiences. If you somehow have the magic sauce to make Mars enjoyable, you could offer this experience in the middle of the desert as well. You could tackle real habitation problems on this planet. Just bu…

I think you underestimate how quickly Mars could become an industrial powerhouse. It won't be starting at a Mayflower level of technology.

Why would it? It has less usable resources than loads of places on Earth that aren't used at all.

Maybe if Mars is some sort of lawless territory it can become the libertarian haven some rich people want, and could trick some future slaves to get sent over there....

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#270

Post by internetionals »

Androider wrote: post #210
internetionals wrote: post #154

The earth-to-earth idea is nice, and whilst it would be an improvement, I expect the travelling time to be the biggest obstacle. You have to gather the people, check them in and clear them during internation flights. Then you have to load everybody on a boat, ship them to the platform X miles into sea, unload them, take them up the big tower, letting them board and settle and depending on how predicatable this is, wa…

Let's optimize it a bit: - Get everybody on a boat in NYC harbor with ferry level security (i.e. not much) - As the boat is travelling to the platform, perform the more thorough check in, any security scans, etc. Everyone simultaneously straps down in their seats, last minute toilet runs etc. - Slot the passenger capsule into the rocket like a cartridge and take-off immediately at arrival. Plot twist: the capsule was…

I like the whole cartridge idea and that would surely help get the human component out of the whole thing.

If this were to happen I would imagine it to not be a capsule, but simply entire rows of chairs.

The main killer would still be the whole transit between the harbor and the rocket, but this could probably shave about half an hour.

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