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The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

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Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#261
I don't know what's going to happen with this project of his, but this certainly is an interesting article:

>Sitting cross-legged on a dirty, formerly cream-colored couch in his garage, Hotz philosophizes about AI and the advancement of humanity. “Slavery did not end because everyone became moral,” he says. “The reason slavery ended is because we had an industrial revolution that made man’s muscles obsolete. For the last 150 years, the economy has been based on man’s mind. Capitalism, it turns out, works better when people are chasing a carrot rather than being hit with a stick. We’re on the brink of another industrial revolution now. The entire Internet at the moment has about 10 brains’ worth of computing power, but that won’t always be the case.

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#262
post #37

Prototypical case of the 80/20 rule. He has implemented the happy case. But that system is nothing people realistically would want to drive their cars. What he did is impressive. But the results are not that outlandish for a talented person. 1) Hook up a computer to the CAN-Bus network of the car [1] and attach a bunch of sensor peripherals. 2) Drive around for some time and record everything to disk. 3) Implement so…

>Prototypical case of the 80/20 rule.

Could you explain on what basis you claim this? Do you have intimate knowledge of his prototype, the amount of work he put in, or the novel ideas that he brought to the project in addition to integrating pre-existing tech?

From what I can understand, your argument seems to be "lets see if I can guess what he did". If you're an authority in this field, then your guess could be very accurate I suppose.

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#264
post #57
post #37

Prototypical case of the 80/20 rule. He has implemented the happy case. But that system is nothing people realistically would want to drive their cars. What he did is impressive. But the results are not that outlandish for a talented person. 1) Hook up a computer to the CAN-Bus network of the car [1] and attach a bunch of sensor peripherals. 2) Drive around for some time and record everything to disk. 3) Implement so…

I don't really see your complaint here. He did build A self-driving car, not THE self-driving car. Its an impressive hack as you noted, maybe it can turn into something bigger with more time and energy. So what is the point of shouting this down with an "ITS INCOMPLETE", it wasn't as if this is a KickStarter promotion or even a product. Geez. Get back to hacking.

It's more of a lane-assist in good conditions, but not expected to navigate city streets or handle unexpected conditions.

So yes, it's an amazing project for a single person, but it's not really a self-driving car.

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#265

Like most hard problems, it's easy to pick off the low-hanging fruit and claim that you have solution. Self-driving cars (in some form or the other, under some loose definition of "self" and "driving") have been around since the 20s. But it still remains a vexing problem. It is quite easy to program a car to stay between 2 cars and follow the car in front. It is quite another to have the same car drive on (a) a road…

TBH, since it's a training based system it's "just" a matter of making sure the training set is large enough, including the situations you mentioned (assuming the training method is robust, generalizes well, etc). I would love someone knowledgeable to give an estimate, but I would guess you need at least a handful (10+?1000+?) of examples of each edge case (involving bicycles, pedestrians, weird road designs, street signs, and so on) -- and there are many of them I suspect (at least 100s?). Estimating you'd take about 1 hour between experiencing a tricky scenario while driving around, this should put the number of hours at something like 100,000+ -- not easy to come up with by himself (that's about 50+ years of driving 6 hours a day).

Mobileye is doing something interesting by curating the reliable parts of the dataset (e.g. they have curated databases of traffic signs for each region) -- again not something you could do own your own, and seemingly archaic (hence GeoHot's criticism), but if you can afford it can speed up the training significantly.

Tesla is a massive resource here because they already have a huge fleet of internet connected cars proving enough data to fill the aforementioned training set in a matter of days or months: let's estimate their fleet at 40,000 cars -- then they could fill that minimum dataset in less than a day, and in a month they might have a 100x safety margin. Of course, there's a big technical problem of relaying all that video (maybe they just relay prediction failures), but the data is there.

Another fundamental problem with exclusively hands-off training (and little optimal control theory, etc) is picking up bad habits from drivers -- even the best algorithms will have a hard time and be only about as good as a good driver in each scenario, in the best case -- since the training data is acting as a ground truth.

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#266

"His self-funded experiment could end with Hotz humbly going back to knock on Google’s door for a job." The biggest thing here IMO is this is self-funded. Any startup trying to do what he is doing in this environment would have raised $50 Million, hired 100's of engineers from top notch schools, become accepted in YC, and have Marc Andreessen, Paul Graham, Sam Altman and all singing their praises. Kudos to him for be…

While I understand where you're coming from, and even feel emotionally invested in the idea of bootstrapping, objectively speaking, it's a bad decision to stay self-funded. It is, after all, a business, and if you can accelerate your business' growth 100x by taking on some very smart outside investors and hire very smart people, why wouldn't you?

Because creating a self-driving car is an extremely creativity-intensive exercise that demands "smartness"... but smartness doesn't add linearly (or, I could posit even monotonically). If 1 smart guy can produce 1 self-driving car in say 6 months, it doesn't mean 2 smart guys can produce a self-driving in 3 months. Once you have a bunch of people, 2nd order and third order interactions between us get complicated and managing that becomes its own time/money-sink.

As for money, yes, it can accelerate growth in its first-order effect; but it also induces stress and so threatens early exhaustion of your other precious resource: personal motivation.

So, as a crack-shot programmer, if you know with 90% certainty you can crank out a self-driving car in 6 months by yourself or fail, but only 20% certainty you can arrange a cohesive team with someone else's money to crank out a car in 1 month or fail (and alienate your team, and ruin your credit)... I would advise taking the 6 months route. Patience is a virtue and sometimes it's better not buying into every pot of snake-oil the SV hype machine wants to sell us.

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy, you drive in a simulator! (ie: backfeed/simulate LIDAR and camera data using a video game (GTA5 for example)). Then try to simulate lots of near-crashes, reactions to traffic lights, signs, etc. Hotz's code just reacts to inputs. Simulate the inputs and you can run any training case you want.

Exactly the plan for outlier cases. Though perhaps not GTA...

email me (profile) if you need a simulated driver ;)

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I know everything there is to know." I kind of took that to be like how Musk talks about needing to know first principles. In the article you can see that he was humble about what he thought he knew, took jobs here and there and eventually confirmed that he was at the cutting edge, that he knew 'everything there is to know' about this special area. That's when he realized that he was qualified to try this. IMO, anyw…

On a smaller scale, I remember one day realizing that I, a self-taught programmer, knew more than my boss. Within six months I left to start my own company.

How smart was your boss and how did it go with your company ?

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#269
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're aware that "auto pilot" literally means "self driver", right?

Yet few people would call an airplane with auto-pilot a "self-flying plane", even with advanced autopilot that can take off and land itself. Autopilot is understood to mean a limited computer assist that can help with routine tasks, but not expected to allow a plane to fly without a pilot.

What more would a plane need to be "self-flying" beyond taking off, navigating, and landing?

Re: The first person to hack the iPhone is building a self-driving car

#270
Surprised that no one else commented on this: It is completely mad and irresponsible to test a self-driving car on a public highway especially since the one who has built it admits that he has no idea what it is doing. Hotz is putting other people's lives in grave danger and everyone is applauding him for that.
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