Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows • Hacker News Board

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#261

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:17 PM UTC

merpnderp wrote: post #228

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm amazed anyone can try to defend a system that has manic-depressive episodes built in as a feature.

Because it's the system that's pulled several billion people out of abject poverty in the last 30 years? I believe the system that was tried before that was called socialism, and didn't work as well as capitalism.

In Europe socialism created limited working hours, affordable health care, free public education all the way to university level - and beyond - and was also responsible for massive investment in infrastructure and R&D.

Modern social democratic states wouldn't exist without it.

You might want to understand what the word means before running down a political system you seem to know nothing about.

As for abject poverty - there's more of that around than ever. Just because you choose to ignore it doesn't mean it's not there.

And after this week, there's more on the way, too.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#262

Post by ArkyBeagle » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:22 PM UTC

dataker wrote: post #132

code4tee wrote: post #7

Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…

Regardless of your ideological background, you cannot possibly assert the U.S economy is healthy. 0% interest rate for several years is not healthy. QE is not healthy. 100+ % debt:GDP ration is not healthy. Inflating assets is not healthy. A vanishing middle-class is not healthy.

It's nearly unknowable what the optimum debt/GDP ratio is. This being said, GDP isn't growing fast enough.

And what inflation? Outside VC money and the stock market ( and the peripheral real estate markets to those ) there isn't any.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#263

Post by swagswag » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:24 PM UTC

anonu wrote: post #212

dave_sullivan wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but those quants are going to make a bunch of money... There's a cottage industry forming around finding market distortions caused by bad algos. You'd think that there wouldn't be a bunch of bots running around making stupid decisions, but there are a lot of bots that haven't been updated in some time and were put in place according to some idealized rule-based model in some esoteric area of finance that one guy…

Someone really bit the dust this morning in ETF land. Lots of US ETFs were down 10,20,30% and were halted due to circuit breakers. There is some quant/market-making firm out there that is really paying for this today.

Jane Street Capital making a killing today.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#264

Post by Omnipresent » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:26 PM UTC

PaulHoule wrote: post #260

pbreit wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Better: make a core position in Vanguard LifeStrategy.

best: buy $XIV today

Any particular reason?

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#265

Post by branchless » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:26 PM UTC

grellas wrote: post #238

People's investment philosophy will vary and tolerance for risk will play a major role in it all. My own view is this, and it is based on a lifetime of having made all the typical mistakes. Steady is the best way to go for your investable funds. That means, go with stocks for a decent segment of your investments but temper this with investments that will help preserve capital when things get rocky. Keep a ratio betwe…

The FTSE is where it was 17 years ago. Since this time everything has gotten way more expensive.

Anyone in the UK following this advice from age 20 to 35 is staring down the barrel of working forever.

The problem is they have a share in growth in the UK over the past 15 years and that growth is next to nothing.

IMHO the old advice needs to be taken with caution. This is not your dad's market.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#266

Post by tzm » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:26 PM UTC

From what I've heard from locals.. the recent chemical explosion triggered general fear of wide-spread corruption and an impending economic coup d'état from nationalists who want to disrupt the current power.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#267

Post by swagswag » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:26 PM UTC

vasilipupkin wrote: post #252

I just want to offer everyone a professional piece of advice. Large down moves in equity markets is exactly when you should buy equities because that's when expected returns are at their highest.

Large down moves Thursday, Friday, and now (early) today.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#268

Post by AnimalMuppet » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:27 PM UTC

roymurdock wrote: post #56

dataker wrote: post #14

I'm assuming the Fed will not raise interest rates now.

I'm struggling to think of what the Fed can even do in this situation. I guess they can either 1) dig themselves deeper into a hole and issue another round of QE to inject liquidity into the markets or 2) do absolutely nothing. Though they are probably loathe to do nothing as then it would seem like they don't have a solution. Whatever happens, it will be an interesting/exciting time in non-traditional monetary polic…

At the moment, there's nothing that they need to do. A one-week drop of 15% in the stock market is not actually something that the Fed needs to fix.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#269

Post by plg » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:28 PM UTC

Unless you need to take your money out in the next couple of months (or unless you are facing a margin call) why not consider this as a fire sale? Your favourite stocks and mutual funds, ON SALE!

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#270

Post by jbooth » Mon, Aug 24, 2015, 5:28 PM UTC

msandford wrote: post #230

cynicalkane wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates are nominal; they only matter relative to some equilibrium. The equilibrium interest rate is somewhere close to zero.

> The equilibrium interest rate is somewhere close to zero Really? Who are all these people who -- with their own money -- are willing to lend $100mm today for $100.05mm in a decade? If there are people willing to lend OTHER PEOPLE's money for near-zero rates, that doesn't count. Because ostensibly all money has to be someone's money. And if it's not -- like say if it's the Fed's money -- then that's clearly some kin…

People ARE buying federal bonds at that rate, right? You can find a figure for the sales, look at the yield curve, and quantify exactly how many people are acting that way with their own money (or how much money, at least).

Looking at http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/in..., the yield for 10 years is actually more like 2%. Less than a year is very close to 0, so there are apparently a ton of people out there who will lend you money for 1 year at 0.33% interest.