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SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

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251–260 of 347 posts

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#251
post #248

Hold on. So that's the second in a row ISS resupply mission that failed, isn't it? First was with the Progress in late April. How does this affect the ISS plans, does anyone now?

This article says they have food and supplies through October. If I'm on ISS, maybe I start skipping lunch now.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-destroyed...

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#252

Costs and catastrophic failures:[1] * United Launch Alliance (Boeing and Lockheed Martin): 0 "outright failures" and 83 successful launches, ~$110 million/launch * SpaceX: 1 failure and 18 successful launches, $60 million/launch If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? [1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-destroyed...

>If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose?

It heavily depends on the cost of the asset. If a satellite costs close to 1bn, it worth to use $110/launch but more reliable rocket.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots? Only in movies.

No it happens, so friends car was overheating, opened up the bonnet to see flames, car was engulfed within 7 minutes of stopping the car.

Yep, the wire harness in two different cars of mine have caught fire over the years.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#254

Costs and catastrophic failures:[1] * United Launch Alliance (Boeing and Lockheed Martin): 0 "outright failures" and 83 successful launches, ~$110 million/launch * SpaceX: 1 failure and 18 successful launches, $60 million/launch If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? [1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-destroyed...

>If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? It heavily depends on the cost of the asset. If a satellite costs close to 1bn, it worth to use $110/launch but more reliable rocket.

True. Also don't forget the opportunity cost of the time lost: 1) building a replacement and waiting for a spare slot in which to launch it, 2) engineering, manufacturing, and other resources which could have been used for (and likely were planned for) something else, but now are used for the replacement, and 3) the project the asset was used for, and its output (revenue, research results, etc.), now put on hold.

Many organizations don't have the spare time and capacity to afford all of that; they or their project may simply be done.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#255
post #200

Looks like Southwest Research Institute's meteor shower camera will have been lost again. They're not having much luck :( > The device aboard [today's launch] was actually a backup of the original meteor camera that blew up along with Orbital Sciences' Antares rocket in 2014. http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/27/meteor-camera-iss/

Neat to hear about SwRI still doing space work. My grandfather was the director of engineering for many years, and I learned to program in BASIC on a 286 that he brought home when he retired.

I get the impression looking back that he worked on so many projects he didn't have time to tell us about many.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#256

Costs and catastrophic failures:[1] * United Launch Alliance (Boeing and Lockheed Martin): 0 "outright failures" and 83 successful launches, ~$110 million/launch * SpaceX: 1 failure and 18 successful launches, $60 million/launch If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? [1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-destroyed...

ULA's record with its current generation of Atlas 5 and Delta 4 boosters is 83 successful launches and no outright failures.

This is an impressive reliability record, no doubt about it. However, it is fair to note that this is the "current generation" Atlas and Delta. The first Atlas was used during the Mercury program, so they've had more than 50 years of design refinement to get to that point.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#257

Costs and catastrophic failures:[1] * United Launch Alliance (Boeing and Lockheed Martin): 0 "outright failures" and 83 successful launches, ~$110 million/launch * SpaceX: 1 failure and 18 successful launches, $60 million/launch If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? [1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-destroyed...

>If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? It heavily depends on the cost of the asset. If a satellite costs close to 1bn, it worth to use $110/launch but more reliable rocket.

For some context, that's roughly the cost of a single instrument for the Hubble (~$100M). There's no free lunch in the space business...

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So with a 5.5% margin the $1.6 billion contract would be expected to yield $88 million in profit? Given what I'm assuming are large R&D expenditures on top of launch-related costs, I wonder whether the business is sustainable.

I used to work for Orbital as a NASA contractor. I never dealt with the business end of things, but the margins were small and very stable so long as there was work to be done (i.e. a giant (sub)contract on some huge NASA project). It wasn't exactly a pressure cooker of a work environment. The government stuff was a very different atmosphere than the commercial side.

I too am a former Orbital employee. I worked on the sounding rocket program. It was very much a pressure cooker because of the incessant pressure to work more overtime and do more missions in less time.

I always heard that other parts of the company were far more laid back. Wish I had worked in one of those parts.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Launch failures are absolutely AGONIZING. I was only an engineer on the sounding rocket program for a little under two years. Fortunately the two rockets I assisted with were successful, but there were payload failures while I was there that had to be investigated. The long days and nights some of my coworkers put in to investigate anomalies took a harsh toll on them. A month or so after I left, the program had a com…

It shouldn't be. I mean, things go wrong. It's the one universal truth of any engineering process. Finding out why the thing that went wrong went wrong, and making sure that it doesn't go wrong in the future is just part of the job. I work on an on-call rotation --- it's not as exciting as rocket science, which is both unfortunate and fortunate --- and yes, things go wrong; and one of the biggest rules of our process…

> it's not as exciting as rocket science

One of the takeaways I had from my time working with rockets was that rocket science isn't even rocket science, most of the time. But, I am very biased because my experience was overwhelmingly negative.

I agree with you on all the rest.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubt it. If anything this is a PERFECT illustration of how well SpaceX is preparing. They know things like this can happen. Notice there was an extended period (multiple seconds) of the rocket smoking before it exploded. Everyone, automated systems included, KNEW something was wrong at that point, before it exploded. At which point dragon would have used its abort system to blast away from the first stage, and made…

From watching the video, it looks like the engine is running until breakup, which is very sudden. This suggests to me, based on no evidence whatsoever, that: 1. Something went wrong. 2. The onboard automation tried to compensate and kept going in the hope that it wasn't a fatal problem. 3. As soon as it realised it was a fatal problem and the vehicle was lost, it triggered range safety (aka the self destruct system).…

The large object seen leaving the cloud before the final breakup has a distinctly Dragon-looking shape (https://youtu.be/2K030HRTutU?t=2m36s), so it appears to have survived whatever happened basically intact. (This isn't super-surprising, Dragon is a pretty compact structure with a pressure hull, compared to a long and skinny rocket.)

Gwynne stated in the press conference that, to her knowledge, the range safety system had not been activated.

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