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Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

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Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#251

Post by aetherson »

nostrademons wrote: post #167
aetherson wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? No. Anyone with relatively deep pockets could easily disrupt Uber right now. Uber's technology is pretty simple and straightforward, and not meaningfully patent-protected. You can do the same tech given six months or so and a decent engineering team. And Uber's customer-base is price sensitive. You can easily get into this market if you're willing to price compete with Uber. Now, Uber is very willing to price-co…

The hard part of Uber isn't the tech, it's building up the network. Two-sided marketplaces are really hard to build from scratch, when there are no competitors. They're virtually impossible once both your customers and your drivers are like "I've already had good experiences with Uber. Why would I take a chance on you?" That's why Google has an advantage over everyone else - for them it's a one -sided marketplace, th…

The answer to "Why would I take a chance on you?" is simple: "I'm cheaper."

Neither Uber's passengers nor their drivers are deeply loyal. They are for the most part brought to the service by the value prop. Uber is of course an established brand, and that brand has some value, but the value is hardly infinite. A deep pocketed competitor could establish themselves.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#252

Post by notahacker »

visakanv wrote: post #228
Alupis wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also a lot of unknowns and serious challenges and difficult problems to solve before driver-less vehicles can become "mainstream". Majority (all?) of the road testing has been on fairly controlled roads with "normal" circumstances, ie. not a blizzard with iced roads, hydroplaning, debris falling in front of the vehicle at speed, etc. Longevity of the vehicle - it's doubtful a driverless vehicle purchased toda…

> The moment the first human casualty occurs do to some software/hardware failure, there will be serious ramifications for the self-driving world. Just want to add to the discussion a reminder that this is said about literally every new piece of technology that has ever happened- the first human casuality from riding a horse, first human casualty from driving a car, etc. It's interesting to note that we're expected t…

Sure, but the reality is, the serious ramifications happen for these new pieces of technology. Ridiculous as it seems now, the launch of the automobile was accompanied by "red flag laws" mandating that cars were lead by a flag-waving pedestrian, and even today there are product recalls involving millions of cars for alleged "unintended acceleration" induced by a basic mechanical lever.

Throw in the fact that Uber, whose relationship with lawmakers is best described as "it's complicated", is about the last company you'd want to be leading lobbying efforts to allow unmanned self-driving cars on city streets, and it's a fair bet they're not expecting their self-driving cars to be anything more than valuable IP at the time they exit.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#253

Post by jasim »

mathattack wrote: post #216
dojomouse wrote: post #197

So much criticism of Google! My question: Why on earth would Google want to cede any significant chunk of the personal transport value stream to Uber - or acquire them at a $40Bil+ valuation - when the main (only?) semi-uniquely valuable thing Uber have (a large network of drivers) is worth approximately zero dollars in a self-driving vehicle scenario. Uber are valuable and effective in a human-driven vehicle model b…

The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone w…

Brands do carry a premium (eg: soft-drinks, luxury goods), but not in this case. Here the brand value is overshadowed by utility: access, comfort, and pricing.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#255

Post by uptown »

mathattack wrote: post #225
dkarapetyan wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many data points do you think you need to make predictions about where people want to go? Uber's data isn't as hard to get as you think. The article mentions also that Uber is already using Google maps to do routing so Google already has all the data it needs.

Google Maps has destinations and directions. Not sure if they store histories of where people searched for directions. (Anyone in the know have thoughts?) Uber has, or eventually will have, "User 1VB7X has hailed an Uber from 45th and 6th nine times out of ten when they were within two blocks. They are now 5 blocks away and headed in that direction." If you add this up for everyone who has the app on their phone, it…

"Google Maps has destinations and directions. Not sure if they store histories of where people searched for directions. (Anyone in the know have thoughts?)"

They do have your search history. And if you've established addresses as "Home" and "Work" or others with Google Maps they have that too. They also have your social graph based on your emails if you or those you communicate with use GMail. And they probably have the addresses of those people you correspond with, over email, to use as destinations. And they have your emails to connect relationships across that graph when your Mom signs her email "Love Mom". And they may have your calendar to figure out where you may want to go on what date if you use Google for your calendar. They have street traffic information to let you know how long it'll take you to get where you're going. They may have your Uber receipts in your GMail to connect an Uber driver's use of Google Maps with your email receipt -- so they now may know at least some of the "who" was riding in which Uber at any given time.

Google likely knows WAY more than Uber does about its potential riders.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#256

Post by marcosdumay »

mathattack wrote: post #216
dojomouse wrote: post #197

So much criticism of Google! My question: Why on earth would Google want to cede any significant chunk of the personal transport value stream to Uber - or acquire them at a $40Bil+ valuation - when the main (only?) semi-uniquely valuable thing Uber have (a large network of drivers) is worth approximately zero dollars in a self-driving vehicle scenario. Uber are valuable and effective in a human-driven vehicle model b…

The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone w…

> If two companies have automatic cars, the one who knows where they want to go wins.

Kind of a good explanation why Google brought Waze.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#257

Post by exelius »

mathattack wrote: post #216
dojomouse wrote: post #197

So much criticism of Google! My question: Why on earth would Google want to cede any significant chunk of the personal transport value stream to Uber - or acquire them at a $40Bil+ valuation - when the main (only?) semi-uniquely valuable thing Uber have (a large network of drivers) is worth approximately zero dollars in a self-driving vehicle scenario. Uber are valuable and effective in a human-driven vehicle model b…

The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone w…

I don't know that Google has a disadvantage to Uber on data: they likely already have your credit card number (Google Play or Google Checkout) and they also likely have your location history.

Car service apps like Uber are headed towards commoditization. My local taxi company has one; it works almost as well as Uber but at half the price. Throw in self-driving cars (where Google has a technological advantage over Uber) and brand value becomes really important. The market will be completely commoditized if anyone with money can go buy a fleet of cars and build an app for $100k (replicating Uber would not be complicated).

Branding is the biggest differentiator in commoditized markets. CPG companies are the masters of this: Tide doesn't actually get your clothes any cleaner than the store brand, but you pay for it anyway. They may adjust the packaging too (pods versus powder versus liquid) but fundamentally, it's the same product. I would expect similar segmentation to happen in the car-on-demand market: one company will specialize in cargo, another in short-distance trips, another in trips to the airport, etc. There will likely be very little difference between these services other than branding/positioning.

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