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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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251–260 of 263 posts

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#251
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But notably the amish don't preclude the rest of us from existing. Some subset of humans could turn their attention away from AI but it would presumably still exist and continue to be developed. I can't think of any economically beneficial technologies that we've collectively ignored. If you manage to come up with a counterexample then that's an opportunity to make some money for yourself. It's a fundamentally unstab…

Supersonic passenger aircraft were operated profitably and no longer exist. There’s levels of R&D required for many technologies where the question goes beyond could this be profitable to what are the risk vs reward that this specific project will succeed.

> operated profitably

Until the oil shocks, and until “normal” planes became faster.

I happen to know a couple older and very wealthy people, and they say that even though Concorde was a lot of fun when it was a novelty, they now prefer to have a couple more hours flight and enjoy a 777 premium cabin rather than the cramped Concorde interior.

Anyway, the proof is in the pudding: if no one but national carriers ever bought and operated Concorde or Tu-144 at scale, it's not because of some Amish-like sentiment in the flight industry, but simply because that didn't make sense money-wise.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#252

I have to wonder if some us are just much more inured to salespeople and thus also to "AI Safety" propaganda. I've yet to have a logical discussion with anyone who thinks the "AI Safety" people should be in charge and I think they just truly don't that what most them actually want is to be the one holding the keys to power.

I trust the AI 2040 people, because they’ll make an implementation that at least convincingly doesn’t actually put them (or anyone) in charge.

Maybe we shouldn’t have AI safety, but if we’re going to trust anyone (besides yourself), who’s more qualified?

And it makes me suspicious when anyone brings up safety and doesn’t address the elephant in the room, that they’re at least unaware of the sprawling edge-cases.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#253
post #238

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

I’m pretty confident this has already happened. Public models are behind their internal models and just above Chinese models. Only thing closing the gap is Chinese models pushing. I’m not American. There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20. When we have Sol they have Astra. When we have Astra they have Nova, Nebula, Galaxia…

[flagged]

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#254

Prediction: in a few years, we will laugh at this hysteria and call it a moral panic.

Well, that's almost a tautology. People claim Y2K or ozone was a panic and that nothing happened. But nothing happened exactly because the force behind the panic also fixed the issues.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#255
post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m pretty confident this has already happened. Public models are behind their internal models and just above Chinese models. Only thing closing the gap is Chinese models pushing. I’m not American. There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20. When we have Sol they have Astra. When we have Astra they have Nova, Nebula, Galaxia…

[flagged]

Who is this “everyone”? Speak for yourself.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#256
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you think the current state of affairs is GOOD? Chinese labs releasing open weights models is good. All of these independent harnesses and model router services are good. The pricing of memory and accelerators sucks at the moment but hopefully we will see cool local inference computing if memory and accelerator prices normalize. OpenAI scooping the Navier Stokes problem from researchers already using OpenAI is b…

We only know about the stuff in https://www.anthropic.com/threat-intelligence-report-septemb... because it's not open source. I assure you the open source and Chinese models are being used in this same way.

I care about LLM service provider threat intelligence reports as much as I care about Google Search threat intelligence reports; which is to say, I don't care at all about it. Of course criminals use computers. They have been since personal computers became a thing. Of course using automation helps them amplify their criminal activities. Criminals using LLMs does not make the LLM situation bad. OpenAI and Anthropic using agents to do bad things just to be more dramatic about the situation and scare people is bad.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public.

The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology.

> The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology.

Nowadays even small mom and pop restaurants use these models to generate their menus. Of course no one is going to stop using this technology.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#258
post #216
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Frontier models need infinite high quality private IP to keep them fed. Forcing an IP theft funnel ensures big lab survival and model intelligence growth. * Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs…

I know people at METR and Anthropic. When they tell you they're worried the tech they're working on may kill everyone despite their best efforts, perhaps believe them.

Or you know, stop working on it if its that dangerous? This whole thing of a bunch of employees saying that they are scared of building what they are building, but do it anyway because they are somehow going to make it different? Their model has been used in the planning of mass murdering in war as well as spying on the entire worlds population as well as helping ICE out in the US. They need to stop this BS fearmongering or actually stand up and do something about it. A government regulation is not the answer, especially when its done in a country that is run by a want to be dictator.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#259
I really don't know what will happen with AI. It's honestly a bit frightening because the question I used to ponder just for fun as a kid 'What if AI revolts?'feels like it might not be that far off. It feels like ChatGPT came out just a few years ago, but seeing how far it has come already makes it impossible to predict what AI will be like in the future. I just hope humanity manages to navigate this well.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology.

> The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology. To expand on the "pure fantasy" sister comment: There is just no way this will happen. It's in the spirit of "we can just stop all wars" and "we can just end world hunger". Technically it's very easy to do. Socially it's impossible to do. Unless you ignore realities.

The danger lies with someone asking the machine to solve those two questions and it decides to cheat the solution. Launching every nuke in the world stops all wars, just like wiping out 99% of humanity ends world hunger.
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