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US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

arstechnica.com

251–260 of 365 posts

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#251
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When I read we spent $1B, I think about how I'm responsible for $3 of that. I like to think about how providing 4-week paid parental leave would cost $2 billion annually and actually help US families. Meanwhile we have spent over $100 billion on this war.

[flagged]

Hundreds of billions spent on a war you lost and best case scenario is going back to the deal Obama made. Money well spent indeed.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hopefully making the real horrors of war visible to the public/world will make war less frequent. Alas...

Has seeing the horrors of the Ukraine war made you want the west to stop it and force a surrender? More horrors don't make people want less war. If anything, it may be the opposite. People pretend to be anti-war right up until there's a war and then suddenly it turns out they're actually anti-losing-the-war.

Surrendering to an aggressor will let the aggressor get what they want, hence making war more appealing. So it's coherent for anti-war people to resist and make it as hard as possible for an aggressor. Even Gandhi justified defensive war.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An MQ-9 has roughly the same wingspan as an A-10 - they're not small birds. An MQ-9 needs to have a good sensor ball, ideally with both color and IR, gps jamming resistance, weapons integration with multiple types of missiles (ideally large enough to take out something larger than a motorcycle), good on-target time INCLUDING transit time (if it can only stare for one hour on target it'd be pointless), good uplink and…

The modern (UA) take is to strap the warhead directly on the thing, make it just as big as needed and directly fly everything into the target. If you insist on firing guided missiles at ground targets from a drone that returns to base you're never gonna be able to compete on cost.

It really depends on the kind of war being fought.

If the cheap solution involves having troops only a dozen miles away from the enemy, then you're going to take casualties, and funeral costs are FAR more expensive then the cost to buy a large bird and fly it from a 100+ miles away.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hopefully making the real horrors of war visible to the public/world will make war less frequent. Alas...

Has seeing the horrors of the Ukraine war made you want the west to stop it and force a surrender? More horrors don't make people want less war. If anything, it may be the opposite. People pretend to be anti-war right up until there's a war and then suddenly it turns out they're actually anti-losing-the-war.

I want less war. I'm against attacking other countries, but totally in favor of defending yourself if you get attacked. Those aren't contradictory statements.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#255
post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not an expert but I think this is an old lesson in warfare, that guerillas can triumph over larger adversaries by being more exploratory/iterative and less rules-bound. Tolstoy tells this story in the second half of War and Peace. Likewise with Iraqi militants wreaking havoc with IEDs. People repelling an invader have every incentive to move fast.

That applies everywhere. You’re commenting on a forum for startups that compete against established players. David will always, in the long run, win against Goliath.

> David will always, in the long run, win against Goliath.

Every Goliath may, in the long run, meet a David that beats it, but this premise ignores all the thousands of Davids that don't win.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#256

I worked on the control systems for Predators and Reapers back in the mid and late 00s, and the inefficiencies around process were enormous. Safety is extremely important, so you expect some slowness as a result, but it got pretty extreme. I remember one time having to do 6 weeks of testing around a one-line code change because a "helpful" dev fixed a small bug that had no practical impact. Yet because it changed the…

In Ukraine, the first place that was bombed was the red tape factory. The drone industry was allowed to basically "do whatever as long as it works", consequences be damned. So they use civilian motors, batteries and SoCs, sketchy firmware with zero code inspection, and more. Does it work perfectly? No. It works well enough. I wonder if anyone is going to learn a lesson about overregulation. I'm not sure if "AI for re…

Correct, but it goes deeper than just the building components. In the US you have to go through an entire military procurement process within each iteration loop. So you design a weapon, then try to sell it to the military, but just the process of demonstrating it and selling it to the military takes a long time and costs money. If you fail you can go back to the drawing board, but each iteration loop is probably a year minimum. And if you are successful now you have to set up and scale production. Get ready for years of environmental reviews and lawsuits.

In Ukraine the military will take any drone they can get their hands on, so all you have to do is build a drone, give a bunch of them to the army to try out on the Russians, and within a week they will tell you if it works or not. So your design iteration loop is probably weeks. If you are successful, the time between hearing the general say "give me 1 million" and when the bulldozers start clearing the factory site is probably measured in days.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#257
post #77

The Defense Innovation Unit was founded in 2015 and is full of SV interest groups: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Innovation_Unit They could obviously have foreseen the current failures in 2015. It is irrelevant, since the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Generals who routinely give theatrical performances for the cameras want the big toys for their districts. The goal in Iran is also not to win but to…

> The goal in Iran is also not to win but to keep the Gulf monarchies, the EU, Japan and China down by means of a low intensity forever war.

Eh... The US can not survive an economical war against the entire world.

But anyway, somebody forgot to warn whoever created this strategy that the US society is constructed in a way that doesn't allow barriers against they exporting all their oil. They will either run out, or they will see some societal changes.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#258
post #10

I worked on the control systems for Predators and Reapers back in the mid and late 00s, and the inefficiencies around process were enormous. Safety is extremely important, so you expect some slowness as a result, but it got pretty extreme. I remember one time having to do 6 weeks of testing around a one-line code change because a "helpful" dev fixed a small bug that had no practical impact. Yet because it changed the…

cf the other thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48845442 ; Ukraine has a hugely inventive and effective drone industry because it has to work . If it doesn't succeed, there is no Ukraine, and everyone involved in making the drones is dead, fled, in a POW camp, or sucked into the internal Russian displacement system away from their family. By comparison, if the US products fail, there's no real negative effe…

To be fair, I know plenty of people there. Drones are important, but they aren't the only reason the front is holding. Both sides rely heavily on drones.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#259
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, save the asset holders, damn the peasants. even Trump said he wants to see housing prices go higher. These people do not care about you. You need to hate them more.

Do you think the common person benefits from high interest rates? Pray tell, how?

It helps keep inflation under control, for one thing. For another, it helps prevent billionaires from wasting even more money on boondoggles.

Re: US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

#260
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what about Graham Platner? /s

Sexual assault allegations and literal Nazi symbolism tattooed on his body. Those things are acceptable now? These were the exact things that Democrats went after Hegseth for (who, for the record, is also a doofus like Platner). The left's hypocrisy knows no bounds.

I'm willing to put up with a lot to put the brakes on Trump. But since I'm not in Maine, it's not up to me.
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