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The AI backlash is only getting started

economist.com

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Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#251
post #183
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the Industrial Revolution was objectively a worse deal for the average worker. The average preindustrial peasant worked 8-12 hour days, but had Sundays off and at least 120 rest days and holidays. Depending on how good wages were at the time, they may have only had to work between 120 and 180 days per year. Compare that to the 70+ hour weeks workers were made to work all year in factories during the period immed…

No, it wasn't. And it wasn't because of government regulation. The land you require for preindustrial peasanting was, of course, tightly regulated and owned by ... well, not you. Read the whole "tragedy of the commons", especially the part about government deciding to just sell the whole thing to the highest bidder, which instead of fixing the problem, set off another wave of city migration. If you stayed on the land…

Preindustrial peasantry wasn't like slavery. The feudal obligation days ranged from 8-12 hours of work depending on the time of year (obviously more in peak work times like harvest), of which 2-3 hours were spent on breaks and eating. The lords had to provide food and drinks for the peasants, and the peasants would work at their own paces like if they were on their own property. There's medieval writing from lords complaining about how they felt like the peasants were getting the better of them in this arrangement, enough that they sometimes preferred to hire laborers for money who they could work harder and not have to feed.

Most of the writing comparing factory work to agricultural work is from after the enclosure movement forced large portions of the agricultural working class to take the "wage work" arrangement with a similarly brutal schedule and work pace to factory work. You're right that the technological and agricultural advances that led to enclosure created a source of poor workers willing to accept factory work.

Obviously the peasants weren't spending the rest of the time sitting around, they had to work on their own land to keep themselves fed and clothed. It definitely wasn't some sort of lazy paradise, subsistence farming is a brutal and unstable way of life, I'm just arguing that the early Industrial period was even worse. If you want an "objective" measure of quality of life across vastly different time periods, the height of the average European went down a few inches during the Industrial Revolution due to malnutrition and overwork, and only recovered to its preindustrial average in the first half of the 20th century.

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#252
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/users/rauch/worktime/hours_...

AFAIK that was massively flawed because it doesn't account for time spent doing various household chores or maintenance tasks. If you spent 4 hours making a shirt, that wouldn't count towards "hours worked", but if you worked a 2 hour job to buy a shirt it would.

Note that making products you use yourself has a very different psychological effect than making them for other people

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#253
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/opinion/ai-dangerous-open...

Also, in discussion with Ed Zitron on the article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pr6tOIjFXDs

Yea, this was good, wasn’t it; quite different from a lot of Ed’s more, er, brassy stuff.

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#254

The untold promise of IA is to replace labor. That's probably the only reason why some people are willing to spend trillions of dollars in pursuing this technology. Mere tools would never justify this kind of investment. It's no surprise that people are getting angry, even though many are using AI in their everyday life.

This is just how productivity works. If people spend less time building a unit of output, then you have more output. People aren’t going to stop wanting stuff. Right now, the world can’t come close to making all the stuff people want. As long as there’s a desire for further consumption, there will be work for people to do.

do you really believe this? wow, the Kool-Aid effect is real. So many problems with this argument.

> If people spend less time building a unit of output, then you have more output.

there isn't infinite demand for the output. unless they're in an industry with infinity growing demand (which would be ...?), companies are not going to retain their staff and 5x their output, they are going to cut their staff by 80% and 5x their profits. we're already seeing this (not 80% but things are just getting started).

> People aren’t going to stop wanting stuff.

wanting stuff and being able to afford stuff are two very different things. if people don't have jobs, they can't buy that much stuff. This is why we will end up with a few very large and profitable providers.

> Right now, the world can’t come close to making all the stuff people want.

Completely false.

> As long as there’s a desire for further consumption, there will be work for people to do.

No. As long as there is continued consumption, there will be a demand for output of companies most of which will (if the promise of AI holds true) not be fulfilled by humans.

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#255
post #29

The untold promise of IA is to replace labor. That's probably the only reason why some people are willing to spend trillions of dollars in pursuing this technology. Mere tools would never justify this kind of investment. It's no surprise that people are getting angry, even though many are using AI in their everyday life.

>The untold promise of [tractors] is to replace labor. [...] Mere tools would never justify this kind of investment. How's this any different than say, tractors, or the mechanical loom? After all, agricultural employment went from 90% in the past to 1% today.

Here's the difference:

The 90% of workers in agriculture found jobs in industry and services.

Those industry and services will soon largely be performed by AI, with the exception of the lowest paying jobs that are hard or expensive to replace with robots (construction, plumbing, hair styling) or for which demand for actual humans is a key ingredient (prostitution, live entertainment).

So the 90% of workers in today's industry and services will find jobs in ... (fill in the blank)

The problem is, I have not read a single reasonably logical prediction of what _blank_ might be.

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of people do you think are affected by AI datacenters? That argument applies better to blast furnaces than to data centers, but I don't see people complaining about steel. Data centers just don't take up much space or power in the scope of industrial manufacturing. Your other arguments are legitimate, but "it's a waste of electricity" and "data centers make some significant difference to a nontrivial…

I live in rural Wyoming and it's a huge deal here, if these projects go through many people are affected. Some of these data centers are multiple orders of magnitude bigger than a blast furnace. I think people are pissed that they're subsidizing the R+D cost of their own unemployment.

I'm sorry it affects you directly, but the number of people who live in the whole state of Wyoming is around a half-million (even ignoring "rural"). If every single person in the entire state were affected, that would be 1/650th of the population of the United States affected, to say nothing of the world.

There's just no way it's a significant factor in overall sentiment.

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#258
post #64

People have been made to believe by very influential people (dario, sam, elon etc) that AI will replace them. As a result people are getting angry. Who did not see this coming? Why da f*#$ do they have to continue developing a technology which they think will replace droves of people by machines?? There is nothing sexy about it. There is nothing cool about it either. Imagine a taxi driver facing his family knowing he…

Just because people are angry does not make it false. > Why da f*#$ do they have to continue developing a technology which they think will replace droves of people by machines?? Because arms race. Game dynamics and incentive structures don't cease to exist just because someone notices them.

> Because arms race.

The irony is, they are building their own competitor...

Yeah, we get that nobody can trust China/Russia/USA/Shady cabal of too-rich-people, but we stopped the atom bomb because it was MAD (mutually assured destruction).

We need a similar treaty to ban any use of AI in this fashion, because all that will happen is creation of weapons that are inevitably turned on their owners.

And then, yes, as a coalition, declare war on any country that violates this.

I hate to be a proponent for war, but one's coming either way. I'd prefer a relatively peaceful resolution to some of our problems, not a "oh my god the robots have rebelled, and we are losing" scenario.

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#259
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All those devs and data scientists and PhDs make a choice though. They could quit and work somewhere else. Even in a tough market their skills are in demand. They choose to work on this every morning.

Sure, they could do that. The outcome wouldn't change, though. If SW devs who worked on ride sharing apps didn't leave, why would you think these folks would? If SW devs who worked on airline ticket search engines didn't leave, why would you think these folks would? And on and on and on. The SW industry has been heavily involved in replacing jobs since its inception.

> The SW industry

Partly the issue is, it was never the right model.

If you write/wrote code, you were a manager. Probably a better one than your "people manager" ever was, but that is/was arguably a different skill. What you managed was extremely technical, more akin to a line manager or an operations manager than a people manager.

Which, yes, everyone could not be the manager. Everyone who was not the manager could be quality control (QC), and handle the parts that "only a human" could handle.

The problem is, AI fits in nowhere in this equation, rather it throws it out. AI can manage, like any manager it can short circuit it's QC, in pursuit of an arbitrary metric. Even the idea of "human in the loop" is fundamentally flawed - if the human is not at some level the one directing (managing), there is no reason to stop incuding the human, less and less, in the work.

AI is not useful to us.

Re: The AI backlash is only getting started

#260
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, in discussion with Ed Zitron on the article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pr6tOIjFXDs

Yea, this was good, wasn’t it; quite different from a lot of Ed’s more, er, brassy stuff.

Yes, I prefer the interviews over the monologues most of the time. The good thing about Ed is that it's not just hot air but he backs up arguments with sources and data. Personally, I prefer a little less anger with my coffee lol
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