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New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

randalolson.com

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Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#251

Post by forgetfreeman »

epistasis wrote: post #217
forgetfreeman wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Increasing housing supply will absolutely decrease housing prices." True if it's the government building the houses, otherwise you hit a point where construction margins tank well before market saturation is reached. In practice new housing developments have a tendency to drag local real estate prices up (see also: gentrification).

> In practice new housing developments have a tendency to drag local real estate prices up (see also: gentrification). This is absolutely false, not true, disproven, and made up. Social housing builders are good for many reasons, 1) they provide competition to the public market, and when efficient don't need to return profit to shareholders so provide a very good competitor in places like Finland and Singapore, 2) so…

"This is absolutely false, not true, disproven, and made up."

Someone should tell the local housing market that then, because this pattern has consistently manifest over the last 20 years here. Without exception everyone I've seen make this claim isn't invested in residential real estate and hasn't closely watched how prices shift in response to new construction. In any event if you're trying to advance the claim that gentrification is a myth you're going to need to bring some serious proof to back that.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#252

Post by alecco »

ryeguy_24 wrote: post #131

I keep going back to the debate with myself. Do I give my now-young kids 500K in an ETF in 14 years or do I send them to college? And the debate is not about how they will spend it (I can hold on to it too), it’s about whether to spend the money or just pass on the wealth to them. People have given me tons of reasons why college is good for them - independence, etc etc. I can find a way to give them independence with…

Trust fund?

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#253

Post by class3shock »

ryeguy_24 wrote: post #131

I keep going back to the debate with myself. Do I give my now-young kids 500K in an ETF in 14 years or do I send them to college? And the debate is not about how they will spend it (I can hold on to it too), it’s about whether to spend the money or just pass on the wealth to them. People have given me tons of reasons why college is good for them - independence, etc etc. I can find a way to give them independence with…

I strongly believe college is oversold but mostly because kids are told they just need to get "any degree", which is a blatant lie. It can totally be worth it if you are objectively looking at what outcomes a specific degree will get you.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#254

Post by forgetfreeman »

WalterBright wrote: post #192
forgetfreeman wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be the worst real estate investor I've ever heard of. If housing was actually a lousy investment Blackrock and Berkshire Hathaway wouldn't have real estate holdings and they're both in the residential market in a big way.

> You may be the worst real estate investor I've ever heard of. You may very well be right. However, everyone I hear saying how much money they made off of their house neglects to mention any of the expenses I listed.

Sure, I've seen all manner of goofy talking points (both pro and con) around the financials of home ownership. Conversely everyone I've heard say lost their ass on residential real estate either bought too much house in a market overrun with speculation (Hi Florida) or move frequently.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#255

Post by pibaker »

jjav wrote: post #222
paulddraper wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increasing housing supply will absolutely decrease housing prices. That’s so obvious it’s nearly a truism. Rate of new houses is below the rate of new households, and it’s been that way for years.

> Increasing housing supply will absolutely decrease housing prices. > That’s so obvious it’s nearly a truism. And that is why Manhattan, due to having the most housing units per square mile, is one of the cheapest places to live in the US. Since it's not, it is not a truism that merely increasing the housing supply will decrease prices. It takes more than that. As long as you have excess people willing and able to b…

> And that is why Manhattan, due to having the most housing units per square mile, is one of the cheapest places to live in the US.

More housing will not make manhattan cheaper than Charleston, West Virginia, but it will make manhattan cheaper than how manhattan is today. That's the point.

Your argument is like saying obese people should not go on diet because statistically the people who go on diet are more overweight than average.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#256

Post by laughing_man »

watwut wrote: post #239
laughing_man wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true in some very important ways. Manufacturing employment is something like 15% of what it was fifty years ago. We only do manufacturing for things that require a lot of technology and a sophisticated skill set. But not everyone in society is cut out to manufacture integrated circuits. It used to be that a person on the left half of the IQ bell curve could go out and get a job making brooms, or plumbing fixture…

USA had low unemployemnt prior Trump ... and still has. You can worry about manufacturing in the national security sense, but it is not missing in jobs.

Sure. Because people who can't find jobs go on disability. That's why we have record low labor force participation rate.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#257

Post by azan_ »

materielle wrote: post #113
azan_ wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't basically every decile getting richer (i.e. able to afford more things) thanks to economic growth?

What if I don’t care about affording more things? And instead want to live in an ethical society that prioritizes stability and universal access to housing, healthcare, and education?

> And instead want to live in an ethical society that prioritizes stability and universal access to housing, healthcare, and education?

Then talk to your local NIMBY. Housing crisis is not due to capitalism being evil, but due to constraining people from building. Healthcare is getting better all the time, we had MASSIVE breakthroughs this year at ASCO (which were made possible by big pharma!). As for education yeah, it could be better but it's completely tangential to the topic.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#258

Post by mcmcmc »

dmm wrote: post #158
mcmcmc wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

He didn't post a source either. Go look at the Atlanta Fed's wage growth data if you're actually interested.

Ok I did, and I still have no clue where you’re pulling your numbers from. This shows the bottom quartile has the lowest median growth rate in nominal wages. So low in fact it’s negative. In nominal wages. Not even accounting for inflation.

https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growt...

If you make an outrageous claim with no evidence, don’t be surprised if you are met with skepticism.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#259

Post by redwood »

The most popular major is probably business which is a little generic or hand wavy and I bet if you were to look at people who study more practical topics you see a much lower rate of unemployment.

Another part of it is of course the prestige of the institution. If everyone has a degree it's not what it used to be.

I definitely agree with other posters though that once you're in a remote work environment is South America really that different than another neighborhood or City if that same amount of money could bring in a more senior person with experience why hire the green? I think a key part of hiring green folks was culture and having young people around the office but that just isn't what it used to be.

The vibe shift seem to correlate with the general feeling that we're all busy and we really want to spend time babysitting a new grad versus all working hard with experienced people it's almost like once you're too busy it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's hard to spend time ramping people which is such a short-sihted thought.

Still I think in the fullness of time people will realize that eventually you do need to be bringing the next generation into the company and so this might be a temporary fad.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#260

Post by azan_ »

SecretDreams wrote: post #121
azan_ wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't basically every decile getting richer (i.e. able to afford more things) thanks to economic growth?

No. It's a k-type curve where the high deciles are getting higher and the lows are getting lower, so to speak. There is increasingly becoming more of a divide between haves and have nots, and it has a temporal component because of how equity has appreciated over the last decade or so. Both housing and stocks. People from a decade ago have seen absolutely unsustainable appreciation in their assets while doing nothing.…

> No. It's a k-type curve where the high deciles are getting higher and the lows are getting lower, so to speak.

Could you provide source? I don't think that's true.

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