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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#251

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

zipy124 wrote: post #243
0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the private market can't possibly go any higher Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history. Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent. If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a bo…

P/E is not an indicator of available to deployed capital. Just in the EU alone there is about €12 trillion in bank deposits which could be invested. There is no lack of liquid capital to be invested.

There is the amount of capital which is technically available, and the amount of capital which is available in practice.

If EU depositors want exposure to US AI firms, why didn't they already withdraw their money to invest in Microsoft/Google/etc.? I'm a bit doubtful that an OpenAI IPO is going to trigger major shifts in asset allocation.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#252

Post by Spooky23 »

sixtyj wrote: post #197
techtuate wrote: post #95

I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best. There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue…

WCGW… Companies with $500B+ valuation don’t bancrupt… Enron entered the chat.

If Enron were running today, they’d put Don Jr on the board, have the US Attorney reassigned to Guam, and sell them Venezuela for a dollar.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#253

Post by pjc50 »

zipy124 wrote: post #243
0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the private market can't possibly go any higher Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history. Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent. If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a bo…

P/E is not an indicator of available to deployed capital. Just in the EU alone there is about €12 trillion in bank deposits which could be invested. There is no lack of liquid capital to be invested.

Basel capital rules are supposed to mitigate against the insane idea of banks deploying all their capital in a single high risk stock.

If you think you can get all the _public_ to pull their short term bank deposits into stock .. well, (a) you've not met the Germans, and (b) that is how the economy of Albania collapsed in a pyramid scheme.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#254

Post by pjc50 »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #248
staticman2 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: Shiller PE is near 44. Japan had an equivalent price to earnings ratio of over 70 during their 1989 bubble.

Hm, wasn't Japan's bubble in part due to easy credit? Are we going to see easy credit in the US given recent memories of inflation?

Quite possible that there will be a Trump effort to drive down rates and abandon inflation control for political reasons.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#255

Post by nicce »

aurareturn wrote: post #143
sandeepkd wrote: post #71

Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario?

I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.

> I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b.

How many public companies even get 122b? They definitely can go higher if they really are that valuable. With public companies come the other factors which might not be based on the actual value and can cause people to throw money.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#256

Post by bigfishrunning »

serial_dev wrote: post #228
techtuate wrote: post #95

I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best. There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue…

IMO they cannot let OpenAI fail. It's not only an AI company, it's the symbol of AI hype. This AI hype is significant part of the US economy, and the AI infrastructure spending basically half of its growth. ("it's not this it's that", I swear it's human generated slop)

The bubble either pops or it gets bigger. We've survived worse, better it pops now.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#257

Post by cultofmetatron »

wg0 wrote: post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

> Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7.

good luck getting a machine that can run its specs though. Even flash is goign to require ponying up 5-10 grand to run the minimal specs for it. The vast majority of people will find their machine falls behind as tech progresses long before they get a return on that investment. That said, it does mean there will be a healthy market for "generic providers" in the AI landscape with these open weight models.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#258

Post by pkaeding »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #217
aurareturn wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.

>the private market can't possibly go any higher Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history. Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent. If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a bo…

The M2 money supply is ~4x higher now than in 1999. Does that indicate there is a lot more runway now, than then, at least on that metric?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#260

Post by anal_reactor »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #237
anal_reactor wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's something I have at the back of my mind. My company is completely dysfunctional so 90% of my job is literally doing nothing, which is amazing. The problem is the fear of losing this position.

You could spend some of that 90% time building skills for hobbies / a hypothetical future job search.

But why?

If I manage not to get fired for 12 years then I'll reach the endgame.

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