UAE to leave OPEC

Well, looks like that was the price for getting the USD swap line. Milkshake theory won't last long, just like the petro dollar.

    > one-party state of Singapore (technically democratic, in practice it functions like a recallable monarchy).

This is untrue. It would be more accurate to say that the same party has been in power since independence from the UK. Each election in the last 30 years has slowly moved the needle -- fewer and fewer of seats held by the majority party (PAP). I guess there will be a non-PAP prime minister in the next 20 years. Sure, it doesn't look like other democracies, but please don't call it one-party. Also: See Japan. Many outsiders just don't understand democracy in Japan and try to impose their worldview on a different type of democratic system.

> It is an admission that US protection was always a paper tiger. Perhaps in the 1960s it meant something, but Iran has shattered the illusion that Washington has any credible defense of the country.

sigh No, it's not. There are 3 aircraft carriers parked in the region, plus US air bases. Iran launched over 2500 missiles at the UAE alone. The US destroyed much of Iran's military, the only thing they have left is the ability to launch missiles and drones at ships or do terrorist style attacks.

But if you want to suggest that the US is a paper tiger here, that just makes everyone a paper tiger. Nobody can stop Iran. Ok.

> The UAE primarily sells its oil to China, which is its largest export partner, followed by countries like India and Japan. the United States cannot do this without not only obliterating energy markets for an ally, but strengthening alliances between china and india. It is likely that should the US attempt such a move, China would respond with retaliatory technology tariffs and a reduction of agricultural trade.

Then we would react with export controls, additional weapons shipments to allies in the region, work with Japan and South Korea to start weapons programs, blockade Chinese trade, there's a million things we can do too.

> the UAE did not "need protection" from any regional military threat until the United States used regional peace talks as cover to launch a surprise attack against Iran. the UAE would still likely be an OPEC member state had the US not unilaterally chosen to obliterate global energy markets for no consistent or clearly defined reason.

And yet, UAE wants the US in the region and in UAE soil. Iran launched over 2500 missiles at the UAE, including civilian targets. Not sure your comment here reflects reality.

> This conflict was well defined as geopolitical suicide for nearly forty years; its what kept the peace.

Things change. US is the #1 energy producing country in the world in terms of oil, gas, &c. We're less dependent on the Middle East, plus we've basically secured the Venezuelan oil supply. Seems to me that what was once geopolitical suicide is no longer the case. We're here today, and life in the US just goes on as normal.

> All simulations and tabletop exercises predicted such an incursion would send global energy markets into panic, trade markets into recession, and produce no meaningful advancement of either regional security or regime change.

TBD

> Iran is backed by powerful allies and has shown numerous times it can meet each US escalation with yet more regional attacks.

Yes, Iran, who is supplying Russia with drones and such for its war against Ukraine is an ally, as is China.

> We have tried escalation and failed, burned through a decade of advanced missiles fighting cheap drones, and have no defined objective politically or militarily for this conflict.

We have not burned through a decade of advanced missiles fighting cheap drones. We can build our own cheap drones and are working on scaling production, and just because you don't understand the political or military objective doesn't mean that there isn't one, however poorly or well-thought it may be.

The US has very much escalated and sits now at the top of the escalation ladder. Iran has been trying to get the US to the negotiating table due to the blockade. Iran can launch its missiles as it likes to at civilian targets in the Gulf. We + allies will just get better at shooting them down. Who cares? If Iran wants to try to escalate we'll just escalate further, blow up more stuff, keep the oil from flowing if we decide. It doesn't really hurt us much.

1) The UAE has its "Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline" (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan%E2%80%93Fujairah_oil_p...) to Fujairah export terminal on the "Gulf of Oman" bypassing the choke-point of "Strait of Hormuz" entirely. Given the current blockade of the strait and its uncertain future, Fujairah is now central to crude oil shipments for the World Market.

2) Thus far, the UAE has been prevented from maximizing its revenues due to OPEC/OPEC+ production caps which is no longer acceptable due to global needs. It can now chart its own independent course by ramping up production and earn hard currency which can be its leverage against an uncertain future. For instance, UAE just signed a deal with South Korea to give it guaranteed "priority access" (meaning first before others) and "joint stockpiling" (for world market) of 24 million barrels. Other countries in Asia who have storage capabilities are also "tripping over each other" to cut similar deals with UAE. This is once-in-a-lifetime opportunity not to be missed.

3) Discontent with OPEC/OPEC+ and its members since the current conflict has made it clear that nobody will come to its aid when the chips are down (other than the US). It is "every man for himself" now and thus UAE has decided to chart its own independent path.

This is very welcome news and i hope other OPEC/OPEC+ members will also follow suit in their own national interests.

If the Chinese take on the burden of maintaining the free flow of shipping through the Gulf by stepping up as one of the key beneficiaries of said shipping that would simply be an appropriate burden sharing mechanism in my view.