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The Cognitive Dark Forest

ryelang.org

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Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#251

Post by nextaccountic »

xantronix wrote: post #104
arkensaw wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, I think it's an overreaction. > No more sharing my project work as open source. No more open discussion. I don't care how badly I want to show the world; if I'd like somebody to see, I will have it printed in a physical book, or I will give them access to my private repository not reachable via the public Internet. If you have a project you would have open-sourced, and you don't do that for fear that th…

> If you have a project you would have open-sourced, and you don't do that for fear that the LLM god will steal it, what's the point of building it at all? To prove to myself that I can, and to solve problems in a way I enjoy. I'm not saying I want to go into utter solitude; I just want to be a lot more careful where and how I share my works. Addendum: I think the idea of private art and code collectives, entirely se…

I think the Toledo family qualifies http://biyubi.com/

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#252

Post by nextaccountic »

middayc wrote: post #243
blksv wrote: post #242

"To close the gates" is only reasonable when you're working (a) not for self-actualization, (b) not for fun, (c) not for learning, (d) not for public good or your understanding thereof, (e) not for any other reason not directly connected with extracting rents from a broad audience. As I see this as the only path where corporations can outpace you with AI capabilities. And remember how many good products have been aba…

The article is me coping with my existential crisis, trying to explore and accept my fears by writing it. And by exploring ideas I think I found some vision for my stance in all this - or hope if you will. I hope these feelings will be real, and I can write a positive blog post also, but I can't be certain if the feelings will survive the scrutiny at this point, or are just warm fuzzy delusions and next level of cope…

It was not your intention but it was the effect of your article

Here in the thread there are people already saying they won't open source their stuff anymore

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#253

Post by nextaccountic »

alembic_fumes wrote: post #46

> This is the true horror of the cognitive dark forest: it doesn’t kill you. It lets you live and feeds on you. Your innovation becomes its capabilities. Your differentiation becomes its median. Oh no, the terrible dystopia where anyone can benefit from anyone else's good ideas without restrictions! And without any gatekeepers, licensing agreements, copyright, and not even a lawyer in sight! If this is the dark futur…

OpenAI and other giant rent seekers benefit from advances by everyone

It's unclear if the general public will benefit once AI prices are jacked up, especially if AI companies succeed in passing regulations to kill most of competition

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#254

Post by nextaccountic »

middayc wrote: post #97
hrimfaxi wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The irony is that it undermines the premise. Multiple people independently arriving at the same conclusions means that you can hide your ideas from the dark forest but that won't stop them from being uncovered.

Interesting irony :). If you don't produce the idea in fear of just feeding the forest, someone else will, so it might as well be you. It's true that this is very similar as current dilemmas some people have about their ideas. The difference is that now people see just the outer shell of your ideas - but if you use LLM-s to search, explore, code your ideas, the system "knows" it all, or even more than you, given that…

[dead]

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#255

Post by red-iron-pine »

DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #131
middayc wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is interesting. When I read if for the second time, trying to understand it - maybe even better match for the low orbit flying garbage would be "enshitification"? As the time goes on, more and more garbage is produced, and we have no clear way or specific motivated entity to start removing it so it just grows.

Enshittification specifically is when a product/service/platform gets worse from the user’s perspective because the platform vendor can directly profit from user-hostile design; for example, Google intentionally serves up bad results on the first search results page so the user clicks-through to the second page of results, resulting in more advert revenue to Google[1]. …whereas I feel what you’re describing is anothe…

enshittification is a hip, tech-bro term to mean "rent seeking" and is nothing new

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#257

Post by Ygg2 »

knowhy wrote: post #218
Ygg2 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've been writing code in Emacs for 20 years, I'll be writing code in Emacs in 20 years Bold assumption. On what will you run Emacs if average PC costs $12000? Yes. Even Raspberry Pi. It's not called war on general computing for nothing. If you say the cloud, that will be cut up and reused by the next AI crawler.

AI will not be able to eat up all chip manufacturing capabilities forever. At some point the market will be saturated and PCs will get affordable again.

And COPA didn't succeed at first, but try and try and you get COPPA, and now age verification laws.

I don't think we'll see PC affordable in my lifetime. It didn't happen after Bitcoin crash, didn't happen post pandemics. New price gets normalized and the cartels just agree to not make anything for PCs.

And if you get everyone on cloud? Then you can control Internet same way you can control TV or the press.

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#258

Post by red-iron-pine »

Terr_ wrote: post #177
georgemcbay wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Knowledge is being commodified. Already was well before AI, the difference now is that a few big AI providers risk becoming the ultimate rent-seekers that will increasingly capture all of the value of that commodified knowledge whether the original knowledge generators want that or not. There is no opt out, everything will be vacuumed up into the machine mind. This will almost certainly lead to vastly increased amo…

Industrial-scale plagiarism. A form of copyright-laundering only available to big actors.

OG feudalism involved owning knights and horses and armor and grain production; techno-feudalism involves owning all ideas

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#259

Post by red-iron-pine »

EA-3167 wrote: post #33
MattDamonSpace wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but the Forest point stands, whatever you can hide from the Forest becomes something that slows it down and allows you some, even if only brief, moat?

There’s a deeply flawed hidden assumption here, which is that the individual in question is the only possible source for the relevant information that the AI can harvest. In the real world that absurdly rare, original thought is rare because we’re in the mix with billions of others. Scientists who hold back publishing breakthroughs have not guaranteed that they will be the sole discoverer, just that someone else will…

the untold billions don't matter -- the AI can sift through those. social media already exists to do that, and LLMs have the luxury of often having the chaff separate from the wheat ahead of time.

science is not inevitable, and there is no telling people will reach the same conclusions in a reasonable time frame.

Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest

#260

Post by red-iron-pine »

ACCount37 wrote: post #213
dreamglider wrote: post #206

For the better part of the last 20+ years big corpos had the $ to throw and replicate virtually anything they wanted. They got the cash and man power, yet they didn't do it. Why? Because they don't care, they have business to run, they need to somewhat keep focus which can't happen when scattering attention all over the place. The difference now is that for relatively >simple One seems to omit the fact that LLMs are…

Do not bet against the sheer expressivity of the transformer LLM's design. They fill graveyards with those kinds of bets.

closest analogy I can see is a RISC chip -- it can't do fancy math directly, but it can get there by doing simple math

LLMs can't do real AGI but can get pretty close

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