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Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

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251–260 of 419 posts

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And rebuilding the gulf should be quite profitable Wait. I've heard this story before. Let's ask any of the recently "liberated" countries how that worked out for them...

Germany?

Germany is occupied by the USA, it isn't liberated at all.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#252

I'm not smart enough to understand why - but surely this isn't sustainable? At some point wont the price not reflect the reality of simply not having gas to put in your car? What is going on... The price of oil went down 10% yesterday, opened +0% today and is back to +4%...

If you look at this as market manipulation as a method of generating (investment) returns, then it doesn't matter if your public lie only causes the prices to change for a day or two. As long as your people get in in the right direction before your announcement, and then get out right after the big swing, you win.

Who cares what the real price is, right? - especially when you've never pumped you own gas into your car, and you are so out of touch with normal life that you think life insurance costs $15 or $20 (I believe those were the numbers he threw out a few years ago on an interview.)

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#253

Martha Stewart was sent to prison for less

She was sent to prison for lying and trying to cover up her insider trading. If she had just admitted and accepted the punishment, it would have been just a financial penalty.

Her blunder was thinking she was too special (or too rich?... she wasn't really that rich) to have to deal with the laws, so she tried to scheme her way around the punishment.

As I recall, her insider trade only made or saved her something like $64k. That's laughably small, and the final punishment to her would have been little more than a slap on the wrist had she not blown it up by lying and cheating to avoid the original punishment.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re just seeing the logic of US defense by offense, and the reason why the excursion was launched as it was three weeks ago. If you step back, in 1979 Iran launched a revolution that had an avowed goal of “death to America”. If the Iranians play the kinetic scenario to the bitter end, they simply are demonstrating this was not mere poetry and there never was any other off-ramp, just tactically deciding at…

> that had an avowed goal of “death to America”. 31 million people just woke up and decided to hate America? Or.. was there a little more to that story?

> death to America

These Iranians are so evil they want to kill even love:

https://fa-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/%D9%85%D8%B1%DA...

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#255
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

if a ground invasion goes they will destroy oil trade and everyone is screwed. The war should not be won. it should be ended before everyone loses.

The US would not win a ground war in Iran. Before every US war, people tend to think the US military and their $800 billion/year budget are unbeatable. But look at outcomes of significant US ground wars since WWII - only one clear victory:

  * Korea: Stalemate, which is still a problem now 70
    years later
  * Vietnam: Loss
  * Gulf War: Victory
  * Afganistan: Loss, after 20 years of fighting
  * Iraq: Mixed results after 8 years: Saddam Hussein threat
    eliminated, Iran and ISIS made significant gains
Iran is larger and has more people and resources than Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Terrain in Iran is a game world-builder's fantasy of defensibility:

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F...

Iran is far more capable militarily than Iraq and Afghanistan and, particulary, their military may be world's the leading experts on assymetric warfare; they train everyone else - Hezbollah, the Houthis, etc. Their proxies held off the US military and allies in Iraq, a neighboring country, where Iran had far less motivation than to defend their own homes from a US invasion.

The US could win given unlimited political will and time, but it would be very costly and anyway, the US couldn't sustain that will for much easier situations in the prior two wars. Nobody is crazy enough to launch a ground invasion of Iran, I hope.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#256
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a defeat for Israel False, Israel has used the whole war to take over Lebanon almost silently from mass media attention. They are about to annex a part of it.

They are at war because Hezbollah attacked... again.

Let me repeat: They are about to annex a sovereign nation while reducing the capital city to rubble. May or may not remind you of another country further north.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#257
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hatred has been there since the 70s, at the very least. Watched a great video on Iran from Rick Steves filmed in 2009, and when he visited a mosque there was a large sign calling for the death of America and Israel.

You know history goes back before the 70’s right?

Maybe he means 70-79 CE

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#258
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a defeat for Israel False, Israel has used the whole war to take over Lebanon almost silently from mass media attention. They are about to annex a part of it.

They are at war because Hezbollah attacked... again.

Israel has been bombing (and conducting raids in?) Lebanon for years. They attacked Hezbollah's ally, Iran. And Hezbollah has been attacking Israel for years. It's not true that the conflict began with Hezbollah's recent actions.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#260
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if a ground invasion goes they will destroy oil trade and everyone is screwed. The war should not be won. it should be ended before everyone loses.

The US would not win a ground war in Iran. Before every US war, people tend to think the US military and their $800 billion/year budget are unbeatable. But look at outcomes of significant US ground wars since WWII - only one clear victory: * Korea: Stalemate, which is still a problem now 70 years later * Vietnam: Loss * Gulf War: Victory * Afganistan: Loss, after 20 years of fighting * Iraq: Mixed results after 8 yea…

Depends on how bad the leaks from the E-files are
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