Most of the US economy is in a recession • Hacker News Board

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#251

Post by bluegatty » Mon, Mar 09, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC

cassepipe wrote: post #233

bluegatty wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goodness, no. The only entity interested in attacking tankers is China. Everyone else - even the US, wants the tankers to pass, even if it's to China. China has huge leverage with Iran. The issue is one of risk - the mere existence of hostilities means nobody can get insurance. All Iran had to do was say 'it's shut down' - and insurance prices go through the roof. No more oil. The business math goes nuts.

> The only entity interested in attacking tankers is China I don't understand how that makes sense > China has huge leverage with Iran. Which is why it could negotiate safe passage for itself Overall I don't get your point

Sorry - I meant Iran.

The only entity interested in attacking the tankers is Iran.

Yeah, as it was written, it makes no sense.

I'm responding to someone indicating that 'China' would be involved in attacking tankers.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#252

Post by s1artibartfast » Tue, Mar 10, 2026, 3:50 AM UTC

joquarky wrote: post #247

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it should be a political goal to keep income distribution relatively stable This penalizes economic dynamism and moves economic decision making from risk taking to whoever defies the baseline distribution. > A good economy is also relatively stable. Big booms with a crash following are very devastating to not-rich people Not necessarily–plenty of social systems let the market boom and bust without causing social di…

> risk taking All I see is bailouts where risk should have wiped out at least some of these so-called risk takers.

I see a lot of risk takers getting wiped out too.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#253

Post by d2ou » Tue, Mar 10, 2026, 8:14 AM UTC

rich_sasha wrote: post #190

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

I find the "K-shaped" recovery a very compelling narrative. Some companies are going stratospheric, some are decaying, the average is +1% growth or so. So depending on where you are, you will see the economy as either booming or floundering. There's plenty of little nuggets like this to point to. US 2025 GDP ex AI investment was in a recession. US equity market ex tech does not outperform e.g. Europe. And so on.

Is there any report on the distribution of growth per firm ? (Interested for example by the median of firm growth). Could be a good evidence to support this inequal repartition of growth argument).

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#254

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Mar 10, 2026, 8:47 AM UTC

rich_sasha wrote: post #190

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

I find the "K-shaped" recovery a very compelling narrative. Some companies are going stratospheric, some are decaying, the average is +1% growth or so. So depending on where you are, you will see the economy as either booming or floundering. There's plenty of little nuggets like this to point to. US 2025 GDP ex AI investment was in a recession. US equity market ex tech does not outperform e.g. Europe. And so on.

[deleted]

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#255

Post by amai » Tue, Mar 10, 2026, 9:37 AM UTC

IAmBroom wrote: post #250

amai wrote: post #246

Unlikely. Wars are good for the economy.

WWII devastated all of Europe's economies. Your much-quoted claim is false.

I was speaking of wars in other countries of course. Not your own, that would be stupid. Only Russians do that.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#256

Post by SlinkyOnStairs » Tue, Mar 10, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC

YinglingHeavy wrote: post #157

SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

Less: "its a bubble" More: "labor market and consumer spending is less meaningful than ever before" The masses are unable to truly internalize the latter.

Those are two separate things that reinforce eachother.

Having high amount of spending come from the asset wealth is by itself not immediately a problem. Having a bubble is by itself not immediately a problem.

It's the combination of the two that's dangerous.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#257

Post by irishcoffee » Tue, Mar 10, 2026, 10:32 PM UTC

leptons wrote: post #23

irishcoffee wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The post-WWII economy in the US is the answer you’re looking for, and the whole world has been chasing that dragon ever since.

MAGA seems to want to go back there, and they're trying to start WWIII to get there.

If you take the blinders off you’ll understand why focusing on maga isn’t the play.