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The only moat left is money?

elliotbonneville.com

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Re: The only moat left is money?

#251

Post by throwaway150 »

scoofy wrote: post #184

So, I really felt like more people should be reading Nassim Taleb's Incerto series of books. A lot of the issues that fall out of AI he dealt with in his books like ten years ago. He gives one the best pieces of advice I've ever heard: if you are going to do something for a living, make sure it is NOT scalable. If you do something that isn't really scalable, like being a welder or a tailor, then you only have to comp…

> if you are going to do something for a living, make sure it is NOT scalable.

Great advice but difficult to action though.

I mean 10 years back I'd have thought programming is that thing which is not scalable. I had every reason to believe that. It required skill, experience, ability to stay current, grit for debugging hard stuff. Much of it can be automated now.

What can I pick now for a living that is not scalable today that some future technology would automate it just as easily.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#252

Post by casey2 »

showerst wrote: post #3

This AI boom is just a hyper-version of previous tech booms (web 1.0, VC, crypto, etc). You have an enormous number of people who just want to get in and build something, but the products they are pumping out don't serve anyone's need or solve anyone's problem. The moat isn't money for out-marketing your idea that 750 other people are building, it's having a good idea that solves a problem that nobody else is solving…

No, the moat is having a seemingly good "scalable" idea that solves a problem a few people have and most people think they have. Then getting bought out.

The zip2s and OpenClaws of the world

Re: The only moat left is money?

#253

Post by scoofy »

Epa095 wrote: post #196
pier25 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

can you automate a tailor?

Isn't tailors by and large already outcompeted by cheap new clothes?

A huge part of the tailoring business are making small adjustments to cheap clothing to get them 90% of the way to bespoke.

If you’ve never done it, I strongly recommend getting your jackets tailored. Even a casual jacket will fit and look non-trivially better for $50-$100 and an afternoon at your local tailor. You can even get things like cycling gear tailored.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#254

Post by elliotbnvl »

thornewolf wrote: post #103

For the comment from "Is Show HN dead? No, but it's drowning", the article author editorializes "One of the great benefits of AI tools, is they allow anyone to build stuff... even if they have no ideas or knowledge. One of the great drawbacks of AI tools, is they allow anyone to build stuff... even if they have no ideas or knowledge." into "One of the great benefits of AI tools is they allow anyone to build stuff, ev…

Oh good catch, fixed.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#255

Post by lelanthran »

prmph wrote: post #238
lelanthran wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obsidian has plenty of clones. The others have money as a moat, which is exactly my point.

Which clones? And why not the others? Which is my point: it seems easy to clone something that seems conceptually simple, but is the result of all kinds of UI, UX, performance, etc optimizations. The reason someone might choose Obsidian over these so called clones is not just marketing, I assure you. The reason people attempt Obsidian clones is that they think creating todo-list management tools, etc is all it takes…

> Which clones?

Are you seriously contending that apps that have Obsidians functionality don't exist?

Just on HN alone, throughout 2023 - 2025 we were seing like one new TODO app show up on HN weekly!

> And why not the others?

Because money is the moat, and they have it!

That was my entire point - money is the moat.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#256

Post by scoofy »

laffOr wrote: post #247
scoofy wrote: post #184

So, I really felt like more people should be reading Nassim Taleb's Incerto series of books. A lot of the issues that fall out of AI he dealt with in his books like ten years ago. He gives one the best pieces of advice I've ever heard: if you are going to do something for a living, make sure it is NOT scalable. If you do something that isn't really scalable, like being a welder or a tailor, then you only have to comp…

Being a tailor is scalable, that's way there are way, way more cheap machine produced clothes today than in the past. Surely he did not miss that the textile industry was at the core of industrial revolution. So being a tailor is more like a post-scaling job - the automation has already happened and now there are only remnants left. But how can you be sure a job is peak-automated? A few years ago, I would have said m…

I mean a tailor who adjusts clothes and occasionally makes something bespoke.

Tailors typically operate a launderette and act as middlemen to a local dry cleaner.

I’m not talking about a fancy man making clothes for rich people, I’m talking about the talented old lady in you neighborhood who adjusts your clothing for $50 and runs a wash and fold.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#257

Post by HoldOnAMinute »

scoofy wrote: post #184

So, I really felt like more people should be reading Nassim Taleb's Incerto series of books. A lot of the issues that fall out of AI he dealt with in his books like ten years ago. He gives one the best pieces of advice I've ever heard: if you are going to do something for a living, make sure it is NOT scalable. If you do something that isn't really scalable, like being a welder or a tailor, then you only have to comp…

>> you'll always be competing against the best, most well funded, smartest people in the room

What if your goal is for them to buy you out?

Re: The only moat left is money?

#258

Post by scoofy »

HoldOnAMinute wrote: post #257
scoofy wrote: post #184

So, I really felt like more people should be reading Nassim Taleb's Incerto series of books. A lot of the issues that fall out of AI he dealt with in his books like ten years ago. He gives one the best pieces of advice I've ever heard: if you are going to do something for a living, make sure it is NOT scalable. If you do something that isn't really scalable, like being a welder or a tailor, then you only have to comp…

>> you'll always be competing against the best, most well funded, smartest people in the room What if your goal is for them to buy you out?

There are much less expensive ways of playing the lottery than investing a year of you life into an unprofitable product that must be scaled to be successful, and only then hoping gets bought by a direct competitor.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#259

Post by kittikitti »

It was always about money. People never cared about new things or innovation. It was always funneled through gatekeepers. The "moat" was a talking point to VC's who are used to 90% of their ventures failing and yet was taken seriously. We seem to forget all the racist jokes about how China will just make a cheaper copy, where were talks about a "moat" then?

Re: The only moat left is money?

#260

Post by bubblewand »

apsurd wrote: post #228
bubblewand wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tailors are a niche thing for weirdos, now. It's not exactly a growth market. Most folks only wear a suit to weddings and funerals, and maybe job interviews. They have basically no need for more than two suits, and many try to get by with just one (in black, probably). Lots don't own one at all, maybe just a cheap fused-construction blazer or two, if even that. Outright bespoke clothes are a niche of a niche. Normal…

I mean, you do you. Clothing is really _fashion_ for tons of people. Fashion is art. People like art.

Yes, I am one of the people who has a preferred tailor who can do more than just let trousers waists out. I also know where the nearest cobbler is. That’s not normal, though.

A dead industry often doesn’t entirely disappear, it just shrinks a bunch and comes to rely entirely on enthusiasts or very rare actual need, rather than broad need or appeal. Consider the draft horse breeder, or the carriage driver. There’s a market for both professions! But they’re itty-bitty. The day-to-day need for both is gone.

Tailoring is hovering right in the edge of that kind of status, today. It’s dying, killed by $10-30 shirts and $20-50 trousers and $50-100 jackets all from largely synthetic materials, and a society that no longer expects anyone to wear anything “fancier” outside certain events.

I mean, outside very unusual circles, dinner jackets are essentially ceremonial costume-wear, and business suits aren’t far behind on that track. You gonna wear a tailored wool hacking jacket or breathable linen Norfolk suit on your camping trip, or a bunch of polyester and nylon stuff from REI? LOL. All the situational tailored clothing but the business suit and blazer are near-extinct unless you want to look like a cosplayer, and those are on borrowed time.

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