Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean is it though? The top reasoning models suggest to walk to a car wash.
The top reasoning models suggest taking a car to the car wash.
Not 100% of time according to comments.
Why I don't think AGI is imminent
251–260 of 313 posts
Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#252Earlier quoted context omitted.
Okay, teach me how, then? I would also like to work 3× less and make 3× more.
Ten more months in 2026, so you should be about 60,000x better by the end of the year.
You say that as if it’s impossible but there are several indie makers that have gone from $10 MRR to $600k MRR over the past 8 months.
Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#253Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…
AGI is a pipe dream and will never exist
Odd to see someone so adamantly insist that we have souls on a forum like HN.
Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#254Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. A slightly different angle on this - perhaps AGI doesn't matter (or perhaps not in the ways that we think). LLMs have changed a lot in software in the last 1-2 years (indeed, the last 1-2 months ); I don't think it's a wild extrapolation to see that'll come to many domains very soon.
Which domains? Will we see a lot of changes in plumbing?
If most of your work involves working with a monitor and keyboard, you're in one of the the domains.
Even if it doesn't, you will be indirectly affected. People will flock to trades if knowledge work is no longer a source of viable income.
Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've been writing code for 20 years. AI has completely changed my life and the way I write code and run my business. Nothing is the same anymore, and I feel I will be saying that again by the end of 2026. My productive output as a programmer in software and business have expanded 3x *compounding monthly*.
Going from punch cards to terminals also "completely changed my life and the way I write code and run my business" Firefox introducing their dev debugger many years ago "completely changed my life and the way I write code and run my business" You get the idea. Yes, the day to day job of software engineering has changed. The world at large cares not one jot.
I mean 2025 had the weakest job creation growth numbers outside of recession periods since at least 2003. The world seems to care in a pretty tangible way. There are other big influencing factors for that, too, of course.
Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#256Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
One could argue that's a cynically accurate definition of most iterative development anyway. But I don't know that I accept the core assertion. If the engineer is screening the output and using the LLM to generate tests, chances are pretty good it's not going to be worse than human-generated tech debt. If there's more accumulated, it's because there's more output in general.
Only if you accept the premise that the code generated by LLMs is identical to the developer's output in quality, just higher in volume. In my lived professional experience, that's not the case. It seems to me that prompting agents and reviewing the output just doesn't.... trigger the same neural pathways for people? I constantly see people submit agent generated code with mistakes they would have never made themselv…
> In my lived professional experience, that's not the case.
In mine it is the case. Anecdata.
But for me, this was over two decades in an underpaid job at an S&P500 writing government software, so maybe you had better peers.
Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#258Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem becomes your retirement. Sure, you've earned "expert" status, but all the junior developers won't be hired, so they'll never learn from junior mistakes. They'll blindly trust agents and not know deeper techniques.
We are currently at a point where the master furniture craftsmen are doing quality assurance at the new automated furniture factory. Eventually, everyone working at the factory will have never made any furniture by hand and will have grown up sitting on janky chairs, and they will be the ones supervising.
This is a great example...
Designing and building chairs (good chairs, that is) is actually a skill that takes a lot of time and effort to develop. It's easy to whip up a design in CAD, but something comfortable? Takes lots of iterations, user tests etc. The building part would be easy once the design is hammered out, but the design is the tough part.
Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent
#259Earlier quoted context omitted.
I actually think it is here. Singularity happened. We're just playing catch up at this point. Has it runaway yet? Not sure, but is it currently in the process of increasing intelligence with little input from us? Yes. Exponential graphs always have a slow curve in the beginning.
Didn't you get the memo? Tuesday. Tuesday is when the Singularity happens. Will there still be ice cream after Tuesday? General societal collapse would be hard to bare without ice cream.
Tuesday at 4 p.m to be specific.