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xAI joins SpaceX

spacex.com

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Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#251

Post by consumer451 »

rybosworld wrote: post #70

> The basic math is that launching a million tons per year of satellites generating 100 kW of compute power per ton would add 100 gigawatts of AI compute capacity annually, with no ongoing operational or maintenance needs. Ultimately, there is a path to launching 1 TW/year from Earth. > My estimate is that within 2 to 3 years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space. This is so obviously false. Fo…

Here is my main question: Musk is on record as being concerned about runaway "evil AI." I used to write that off as sci-fi thinking. For one thing, just unplug it.

So, let's accept that Musk's concern of evil runaway AI is a real problem. In that case, is there anything more concerning than a distributed solar powered orbital platform for AI inference?

Elon Musk appears to be his own nemesis.

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#252

Post by reisse »

SimianSci wrote: post #113

The Goalpost shift continues, If elon were working for me, I would have fired him for having never delivered on any of his projects. Hyperloop > Neuralink > Self-Driving Cars > Robotaxi fleets > Personal Robots > Orbital Datacenters > [Insert next]

> If elon were working for me, I would have fired him for having never delivered on any of his projects.

Never? For the sheer amount of moonshot bets he's doing, his track record would make any VC jealous. Zip2, PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX, Grok/xAI.

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#253

Post by rybosworld »

tokyobreakfast wrote: post #147
rybosworld wrote: post #70

> The basic math is that launching a million tons per year of satellites generating 100 kW of compute power per ton would add 100 gigawatts of AI compute capacity annually, with no ongoing operational or maintenance needs. Ultimately, there is a path to launching 1 TW/year from Earth. > My estimate is that within 2 to 3 years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space. This is so obviously false. Fo…

> For one thing, in what fantasy world would the ongoing operational and maintenance needs be 0? Do you not understand how satellites work? They don't send repair people into space. This has been a solved problem for decades before the AI gold rush assumed they have some new otherworldly knowledge to teach the rest of the world.

> Do you not understand how satellites work?

Not trying to be rude - but it's you who doesn't understand how satellites work.

The U.S. has 31 GPS satellites in orbit right now. The operational cost of running those is $2 million/day.

Not to mention the scale of these satellites would be on the order of 10x-100x the size of the ISS, which we do send people to perform maintenance.

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#255

Post by DontBreakAlex »

DoctorOetker wrote: post #159
alangibson wrote: post #89

Either this is a straight up con, or Musk found a glitch in physics. It's extremely difficult to keep things cold in space.

what makes you believe this? radiators can be made as long as desirable within the shade of the solar panels, hence the designer can pracitically set arbitrarily low temperatures above the background temperature of the universe.

Radiators can only be made as long as desirable because there's gravity for the fluid inside to go back down once it condenses. Even seen those copper heat pipes in your PC radiator?

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#256

Post by FloorEgg »

alangibson wrote: post #89

Either this is a straight up con, or Musk found a glitch in physics. It's extremely difficult to keep things cold in space.

Setting aside the possibility it's window dressing for a financial bailout, there would be two ways compute in space makes sense:

1) new technology improves vacuum heat radiation efficiency

2) new technology reduces waste heat generation from compute

All the takes I've seen have been focused on #1, but I'm starting to wonder about #2... Specifically spintronics and photonic chips.

Re: xAI joins SpaceX

#258

Post by TSiege »

One thing to keep in mind. xAI and SpaceX both have contracts with the DoD. So it makes sense he moved it there rather than Tesla. Not sure I buy the needing AI for doing more in space or if this is to save sinking ship, but if one of his two big companies needed to buy it to keep it afloat it makes sense it was SpaceX and not Tesla.

I'm wondering if SpaceX's going public will be delayed. If not we'll see the first test of the public's appetite for what the AI companies' balance sheets look like

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