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The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

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Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#251

Post by simianwords »

ryanSrich wrote: post #244
nl wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consumers have mostly rejected AI. People like to complain about things, but consumers are heavily using AI. ChatGPT.com is now up to the 4th most visited website in the world: https://explodingtopics.com/blog/chatgpt-users

Are they paying through? Reddit was also popular for a long time and didn't make much money. My point was more that it seems this wave of AI is more profitable if you're in B2B vs. B2C.

It’s incorrect to point out that consumers have rejected AI.

The strategy here is more valid in my opinion. The value in AI is much more legible when the consumer uses it directly from their chat UI than whatever enterprises can come up with.

I can suggest many ways that consumers can use it directly from chat window. Value from enterprise use is actually not that clear. I can see coding but that’s about it. Can you tell me ways in which enterprises can use AI in ways that is not just providing their employees with chaggpt access?

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#252

Post by simianwords »

ryanSrich wrote: post #45
jjcm wrote: post #19

Not only has OpenAI's market share gone down significantly in the last 6mo, Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models[1]. An alliance with OpenAI just makes less sense today than it did 6mo ago. [1] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/open-models-data-tools-acceler...

I think there are two things that happened 1. OpenAI bet largely on consumer. Consumers have mostly rejected AI. And in a lot of cases even hate it (can't go on TikTok or Reddit without people calling something slop, or hating on AI generated content). Anthropic on the other hand went all in on B2B and coding. That seems to be the much better market to be in. 2. Sam Altman is profoundly unlikable.

Naive to call Sam Altman unlikeable.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#253

Post by ajross »

zeofig wrote: post #164
ajross wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally the whole economy has "over-raised its fundamentals" though. Not everyone is going to fail in exactly this way, but (again, pretty much literally) everyone is exposed to a feedback-driven crash from "everyone else" that ended up too exposed. We all know this is a speculative run-up. We all know it'll end somehow. Crashes always start with something like this. Is this the tipping point? Damned if I know. But…

Just print so much money that people (yes, banks are people!) have nothing better to do than buy stonks. Problem solved!

This is reasoning from a mistake. Market valuation is about VALUE, which is an abstract idea assigned by the market, which is not the same thing as MONEY, which can be "printed"[1]. Market values go up and down on their own, irrespective of the amount of money in circulation. They reflect consensus (often irrational) for what the securities "should be trading at", and that's all. If the currency inflates or deflates, the markets do too.

[1] Though recognize that by engaging in that frame you're painting yourself as an unserious amateur being influenced by partisan media. Real governments do not "print money" in any real sense, and attempts to conflate things like bond debt with it run afoul, yet again, of the money/value mistake.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#254

Post by lizknope »

Turfie wrote: post #238
nicman23 wrote: post #210

the biggest imo indicator that it is gonna pop was dram makers not promising to expand production

Well, they might have gotten a little wary from previous boom and bust cycles. Perhaps they are a bit wary about the economic sustainability of the whole AI thing. However, perhaps they also might be driven by greed at this point. Why not just constrain supply and increase margins whilst they are no real competitor?

I've been designing chips since 1997. The first 2 companies I was at had their own fabs. It's been a boom and bust industry for 50 years or more.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/05/the-great-semicondu...

Here is a long article from last year about Sam Altman.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/business/openai-plan-elec...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-rejects-podcasting-bro-s...

> TSMC’s leadership dismissed Altman as a “podcasting bro” and scoffed at his proposed $7 trillion plan to build 36 new chip manufacturing plants and AI data centers.

I thought it was ridiculous when I read it. I'm glad the fabs think he's crazy too. If he wants this then he can give them the money up front. But of course he doesn't have it.

After the dot com collapse my company's fabs were running at 50% capacity for a few years and losing money. In 2014 IBM paid Global Foundries $1.5 billion to take the fabs away. They didn't sell the fabs, they paid someone to take them away. The people who run TSMC are smart and don't want to invest $20-100 billion in new fabs that come online in 3-5 years just as the AI bubble bursts and demand collapses.

https://gf.com/gf-press-release/globalfoundries-acquire-ibms...

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#255

Post by throwforfeds »

leptons wrote: post #139
random_duck wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They might know something?

More like they don't know the things others do. Siri is a laughing stock.

Sure, Siri is, but do people really buy their phone based off of a voice assistant? We're nowhere near having an AI-first UX a la "Her" and it's unclear we'll even go in that direction in the next 10 years.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#256

Post by g947o »

ryanSrich wrote: post #45
jjcm wrote: post #19

Not only has OpenAI's market share gone down significantly in the last 6mo, Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models[1]. An alliance with OpenAI just makes less sense today than it did 6mo ago. [1] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/open-models-data-tools-acceler...

I think there are two things that happened 1. OpenAI bet largely on consumer. Consumers have mostly rejected AI. And in a lot of cases even hate it (can't go on TikTok or Reddit without people calling something slop, or hating on AI generated content). Anthropic on the other hand went all in on B2B and coding. That seems to be the much better market to be in. 2. Sam Altman is profoundly unlikable.

> OpenAI bet largely on consumer

Source on that?

Lots of organizations offer ChatGPT subscriptions, and Microsoft pushes Copilot as hard as it can which uses GPT models.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#257

Post by deskamess »

breput wrote: post #41
sailingparrot wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models Nvidia has always had its own family of models, it's nothing new and not something you should read too much into IMHO. They use those as template other people can leverage and they are of course optimized for Nvidia hardware. Nvidia has been training models in the Megatron family as well as many others since at least 2019 which was us…

Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B[0][1] is a very impressive local model. It is good with tool calling and works great with llama.cpp/Visual Studio Code/Roo Code for local development. It doesn't get a ton of attention on /r/LocalLLaMA but it is worth trying out, even if you have a relatively modest machine. [0] https://huggingface.co/nvidia/NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B... [1] https://huggingface.co/unsloth/Nemotron-3-Nano-3…

Do they have a good multilingual embedding model? Ideally, with a decent context size like 16/32K. I think Qwen has one at 32K. Even the Gemma contexts are pretty small (8K).

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#258

Post by philistine »

drawfloat wrote: post #218
nl wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consumers have mostly rejected AI. People like to complain about things, but consumers are heavily using AI. ChatGPT.com is now up to the 4th most visited website in the world: https://explodingtopics.com/blog/chatgpt-users

We’ve seen many times that platforms can be popular and widely disliked at the same time. Facebook is a clear example. The difference there is it became hated after it was established and financially successful. If you need to turn free visitors in to paying customers, that general mood of “AI is bad and going to make me lose my job/fuck up society” is yet another hurdle OpenAI will have to overcome.

Yeah, every single big website is totally free. People have complex emotions toward Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, but they don't have to pull out their wallet. That's a bridge too far for many people.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#259

Post by BoredomIsFun »

ryanSrich wrote: post #45
jjcm wrote: post #19

Not only has OpenAI's market share gone down significantly in the last 6mo, Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models[1]. An alliance with OpenAI just makes less sense today than it did 6mo ago. [1] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/open-models-data-tools-acceler...

I think there are two things that happened 1. OpenAI bet largely on consumer. Consumers have mostly rejected AI. And in a lot of cases even hate it (can't go on TikTok or Reddit without people calling something slop, or hating on AI generated content). Anthropic on the other hand went all in on B2B and coding. That seems to be the much better market to be in. 2. Sam Altman is profoundly unlikable.

Those who is publicly hating LLMs still use them though, even for the stuff the claim to hate, like writing fanfic.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#260

Post by tester756 »

catdog wrote: post #220
tester756 wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>first mover isnt always an advantage but in this case it is, ChatGPT name is really, really strong, it's like "just google it" instead of "just search the web"

Maybe but it's far from profitable. People largely don't want to pay for it either.

Who cares? profitability is not the most important thing at every stage of the product
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