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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#251

Post by tim333 »

parineum wrote: post #159
tsimionescu wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of your arguments are expounded upon in the article itself, and their conclusions still hold, based on the publicly available data. The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly di…

> The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly dismisses. I think OP's point still stands here. Who are people reporting minor incidents to that would be publicly available that isn't…

Yeah, I've driven ~200k miles in my life and had quite a few incidents but most not recorded anywhere.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#252

Post by FireBeyond »

z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

> The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to.

Tesla's own stats don't count any accident without airbag deployment, regardless of severity (and modern airbag systems have a number of factors that play into deployment), and, for some unknown reason, they don't count fatalities in their crash statistics.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#253

Post by vel0city »

awakeasleep wrote: post #118
UltraSane wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is fraud trying to inflate Tesla stock price.

The real term is “marketing puffery.” It’s a fun, legally specific way to describe a company bullshitting to hype its product.

Puffery is like saying this is the best canned chili ever made. Selling a can of chili but never actually giving the chili just an empty can is fraud.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#254

Post by vel0city »

concinds wrote: post #121
fabian2k wrote: post #6

As long as there are still safety drivers, the data doesn't really tell you if the AI is any good. Unless you had reliable data about the number of interventions by the driver, which I assume Tesla doesn't provide. Still damning that the data is so bad even then. Good data wouldn't tell us anything, the bad data likely means the AI is bad unless they were spectacularly unlucky. But since Tesla redacts all information…

The "safety drivers" do nothing. They sit in the passenger seat and the only thing they have is a button that presumably stops the car and lets a remote operator take over.

If they don't do anything, why does Tesla feel the need to pay them to be there?

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#255

Post by breve »

user34283 wrote: post #249
breve wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a thought experiment for you. If I stuck my middle finger up at you while saying "my heart goes out to you", what would you think?

Probably not that you support the Nazi regime, as that would be a ridiculous thing to think. Particularly so if a year before you visited Auschwitz and stated it was "tragic that humans could do this to other humans", and told us how you attended a Hebrew preschool and have a lot of Jewish friends.

I didn't ask you what you wouldn't think. I asked you what you would think.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#256

Post by ghaff »

tim333 wrote: post #251
parineum wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly dismisses. I think OP's point still stands here. Who are people reporting minor incidents to that would be publicly available that isn't…

Yeah, I've driven ~200k miles in my life and had quite a few incidents but most not recorded anywhere.

Probably 200K on my part--probably a bit more. Some minor damage but no insurance claims or police reports. But some dings of various degrees.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#257

Post by UltraSane »

speed_spread wrote: post #106
UltraSane wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern cars could easily detect drunk like driving and stop or call the cops.

A car that calls the cops on you. Great. It could also park, lock the doors and hold you in while the police take their sweet time knowing you're already in a cell?

It is creepy but it WOULD save lives.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#258

Post by FireBeyond »

LunicLynx wrote: post #145
Forgeties79 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not weird. They have a history of over promising to the point that one could say they just straight up lie on a regular basis. The bar is higher for them because they have abused the public’s trust and it has to be earned again. The results have to speak for Tesla very loudly and very clearly. And so far they don’t.

But this is more your feelings than actually factual. I mean sure you can say that the timelines did slip a lot but that doesn’t really have anything to with the rest that is insinuated here. I would argue a timeline slipping doesn’t mean you go about killing people and lie about it next. I would even go so far as to say that the timelines did slip to exactly avoid that.

> I mean sure you can say that the timelines did slip a lot but that doesn’t really have anything to with the rest that is insinuated here.

No. Not at all. This isn't "timelines slip". This is Musk saying, and I quote, "Self driving is a solved problem. We are just tuning the details." in 2016, and in 2021, "Right now our highest priority is working on solving the problem."

Somewhere along the line, it apparently got "unsolved".

"Timelines slipped" is far too generous for someone who, whenever Tesla is facing bad press, will imply that a new FSD release coming in 6 months, 3 months, a month, will solve all the issues plaguing it so far. Repeatedly. Those aren't real timelines.

Hell, even Tesla has had to add comments to investor and securities documents saying that "Musk's statements are aspirational and do not always reflect engineering realities."

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#259

Post by FireBeyond »

jraby3 wrote: post #205
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

I find it interesting the Lemonade insurance just began offering a 50% discount for Tesla with FSD. Insurance companies are known for analytics and don't survive if they use bad data. This points to your comment being correct.

Who knows the backend deals there, everything up to and including Tesla subsidizing the premiums.
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