Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

I'll interpret it as meaning 1800s to 1900s to 2000s. I'd argue that we haven't yet seen the same step change as 1800s to 1900s this century because we're only just beginning the ramp up on the new technology that will drive progress this century similar to how in 1926 they were still ramping up on the use of electricity and internal combustion engines.

Let's take electricity as the primary example though since it's the one you mentioned and it's probably more similar to our current situation with AI. The similarities include the need for central generating stations to supply raw power to end users as well as the need for products designed to make use of that power and provide some utility to the consumer. Efficiency of generation is also a primary concern for both as it's a major cost driver. Both of those required significant investment and effort to solve in the early days of electrification.

We're now solving similar problems with AI, instead of power plants we're building datacenters, instead of lightbulbs and washing machines we're developing chat bot integrations and agents, instead of improving dynamos we're improving GPUs and TPUs. I fully expect we'll follow a similar curve for deployment as we find new uses, improve existing ones and integrate this new power source into an increasing number of domains.

We do have one major advantage though, we've already built The Grid for distribution which saves a massive amount of effort.

This article is a good read on the permeation of electricity through the economy

https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-birth-of-the-grid

If you actually use these tools, really use them. You realize that it's an augmentation not a replacement. Simply because the training data is what has already come before (for now!). The LLMs need help, direction, focus...and those are learned skills dependent on the tooling. Not to mention ideas.

And sure, I imagine the software development workforce will change quite a bit, probably this year, no doubt about that.

But the need for builders will not change. I imagine that the 'builder' role will change to be traditional software developers, designers, sales people, writers, c-suite...whatever.

So I think you are right. "That could easily exclude you or me". 100% correct. The required skill set to be a builder is changing on a weekly basis. The only way to keep up is to keep building with these tools. Trying things. Experimenting. Otherwise, yes, you will probably be replaced. By a builder.

Do they have considerations for their fellow humans? I certainly haven't observed that they give a shit about anyone or anything that isn't their bottom line. What exactly has Zuckerberg contributed to this world and to his fellow man, other than a mass data harvesting operation that has enabled real life genocides?

"They 'trust me'. Dumb fucks." - Zuckerberg, talking about Facebook users.

What has Bezos done for the average Amazon warehouse worker, other than stick them in grueling conditions where they even have their toilet breaks timed, just to squeeze out every single inch of life out of his workers he can? What have the people working for Big Oil done that is beneficial to humanity, other than suppressing climate change research and funding lobbying groups to hide the fact that they knew about climate change since the 70s? What have the tobacco execs done for humanity, other than bribing doctors to falsify medical research indicating that tobacco isn't harmful? I could go on and on about all the evils brought on to the world by psychotic executives and their sycophantic legions sucking the teet hoping for a handout, but we'd be here all day.

Sure, there's a few philanthropists out there bobbing around in the ocean of soulless psychopaths that are doing some good things, but they're very much the exception.

> Not to mention that we have democratic mechanisms that give power to the masses.

Even (especially?) just looking solely from a US POV, these democratic mechanisms are quickly and actively being eroded by these "considerate" billionaires like Thiel (who is quite openly & proudly naming his companies using literally evil things from Tolkien's works). They're talking about taking over Greenland to distract from them all being ousted as pedophiles for fuck's sake, what "democractic mechanisms"?

> We will obviously transition to a system where most of us can live a comfortable life without working a full time job, and it's going to be great.

I again don't see how this is "obvious", and you haven't outlined anything about how this utopia is supposed to work other than extremely vague statements. How is this utopian state more obvious than the one we are currently freefalling into, a dystopian police state where your every breath is being tracked in some database that is then shared with anyone with 3 pennies to pay to access the data?

The actual number of such vehicles produced is two orders of magnitude less.