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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#251

Post by pests »

renewiltord wrote: post #215
lossolo wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML owns the company that builds the light source. They acquired it, it's a US company, which is why US export controls apply, that's all. If needed, they could replicate the subsidiary in the EU.

This is too far from correct for any correction to be anything but a full restatement of the facts. Moving the tech over requires US approval. Listen, the Dutch are not going to risk it. Even if they were, ASML would not risk it because all of their customers wouldn't buy anything from a company that's on the EAR Entity List (which is where they'd end up if they tried this without the US allowing it) without US appro…

Specifically control is related to the Foreign Direct Product Rule, where in which the US claims jurisdiction over any foreign product containing 25% or more of US-origins (Cymer, etc)

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#252

Post by [deleted] »

darth_avocado wrote: post #248
nitwit005 wrote: post #56

A "Manhattan Project" would be building some shocking new technology that didn't previously exist. If they're cobbling together old parts, it sounds more like something you'd to to keep things running in case a conflict erupts: > The availability of parts from older ASML machines on secondary markets has allowed China to build a domestic prototype

> A "Manhattan Project" would be building some shocking new technology that didn't previously exist. You’re missing forest for the trees. ASML at the moment has the monopoly on these machines. This is not only a great tool for the West to keep China at bay, but also a way to maintain economic dominance. Even if they can’t get the machine up and running until 2030, and the machine is a generation behind, China has eff…

[deleted]

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#253

Post by kiba »

mr_toad wrote: post #217
christophilus wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. That's where this is heading, and the West-- as usual-- is pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up.

> West-- as usual-- is pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up. The companies building out vast data centers for AI aren’t looking to make profits for several years (if ever), and are catching a lot of flak for it. The shareholders who seem to be focused on short-term profits and punish them every time they get cold feet. Oracle is a prime example of this. I don’t know if the markets in Asia work differe…

And they should be catching a lot of flak for it because it's not really long term strategic planning, it's overhyping a technology and running roughshod over society promoting misuses and AI slops.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#254

Post by expedition32 »

christophilus wrote: post #154
eastof wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We haven't always been awful at keeping secrets, see the actual Manhattan Project. I like the optimism of your proposal, but how would those US companies continue the same level of R&D investment without those extra profits? If the government just directly invests, then you've just become the enemy.

Didn’t the actual Manhattan Project leak to the USSR?

Yep Stalin literally got daily reports about it. He probably knew as much as Roosevelt.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#255

Post by dboreham »

echelon wrote: post #82
christophilus wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. That's where this is heading, and the West-- as usual-- is pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up.

Is anyone here calling legislators about it to inform them of this? Does anyone here have leverage to affect strategy?

Legislators aren't interested in actual expertise. They only need to know what each constituency wants and how much money they have.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#256

Post by pogue »

GolfPopper wrote: post #228
christophilus wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. That's where this is heading, and the West-- as usual-- is pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up.

> pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up "Forgetting to look up" implies a desire or intent to do so. The United States - former leader of the collective West - made the choice decades ago to sacrifice everything on the altar of quarterly profits. All that remains are the consequences of that decision.

When did this whole quarterly profits thing start and what lead to it?

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#257

Post by subw00f »

mywittyname wrote: post #170
notepad0x90 wrote: post #143

Good for them, I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ). Don't get me wrong, I want the west to succeed, but a competition from China is exactly what is needed. They're building datacenters in arizona and india for TSMC because of this competition. I really hope we get past historical political rivalry and get along with China better. Competition is good, hostility…

> get along with China better. This will probably never happen. All countries are rivals, and the semblance of cooperation is really just the manifestation of a power imbalance. China grew into their big boy pants and can hold their own on the international stage. They have no need to be cooperative because they are in the International Superpower Club. Their strategic ambitions do not align with those of their rival…

Yeah, all those countries China has invaded really shows how apt they are to do that.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#258

Post by _zagj »

Herring wrote: post #51
mk89 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are "extracting" optical devices from other machines, imagine how desperate they are for this "machine". As I ironically said in another comment, all you need is a retired Chinese ex employee at Zeiss. Nothing can stay private or secret forever, and they have the money and people to achieve that. Even if it takes them another 5 years to reach what we have today.

I bet the ex employee doesn't even have to be Chinese. I'm not, but get me FAANG-level salaries and decent working hours I'll 你好 all you want.

> I bet the ex employee doesn't even have to be Chinese.

That bit struck me as naive, given the instances of Americans who aren't Chinese nationals, or even ethnically Chinese at all, caught committing actual espionage on behalf of China.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#259

Post by _zagj »

Quothling wrote: post #121
georgeburdell wrote: post #13

The knowledge came from former ASML employees. I wonder if countries will sanction these individuals given the geopolitical implications of their assistance.

Why would Holland sanction people who switch jobs? Don't get me wrong, I can absolutely see how it might have happened if ASML had been an US company. I'm just not sure how you figure that it would happen in Europe.

Unless things have changed much since the days of AQ Khan, that's probably the case.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#260

Post by cjbgkagh »

pogue wrote: post #256
GolfPopper wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up "Forgetting to look up" implies a desire or intent to do so. The United States - former leader of the collective West - made the choice decades ago to sacrifice everything on the altar of quarterly profits. All that remains are the consequences of that decision.

When did this whole quarterly profits thing start and what lead to it?

Minority shareholder rights, you can be sued for not maximizing profits see Dodge v. Ford Motor Co. (1919).
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